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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Huarong default and China’s macroeconomy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Apr 2021

China’s State Council Tuesday issued a decree ordering a “deepening” of reform of the budget management system. The key point is an order to reduce financial risk and increase transparency of local government finance. This order follows the recent cancellation of the Ant Group IPO and stricter re...

MPC stays on hold, but turns visibly more dovish, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 15 Apr 2021

At today’s regular rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT, under the new Governor and two new MPC members, left the policy rate unchanged at 19% (simple; see chart), but modified the language in a markedly more dovish direction.

Yandex faces investigation for manipulating searches
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021

On April 14 the Russian competition authority is investigating the nation's main tech company on suspicion that it is exploiting its market dominance. Yandex is accused of unfairly favoring its own services.The Federal Anti Monopoly Service said Yandex has not heeded an earlier warning. Shares in...

Inflation slows and may decelerate faster than expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation was at 0.1% over the seven days ending on April 12. From April 1 to April 12, it also remained at 0.1%. There are more signs of gradually declining prices across a growing number of products of the consumption basket. These observations generally support GKEM Analy...

Progress on Covid vaccination and reopening
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021 · 1 response

On April 7, the night curfew, in force since November 11, was shortened by two hours, to between 10pm and 5am, and the time when shops that can be kept open otherwise are required to close was modified to 9.30pm from 7pm. All that was done with reference to the fact that the total number of those...

The STF to analyze two important matters today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2021

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will analyze two important matters today. First, Minister Luís Roberto Barroso’s decision to decree the installation of the COVID CPI in the Federal Senate will be reviewed. His decision will likely be approved, as there was a similar case in the court previously t...

​Despite slight inflation surprise, core inflation moderates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021

Inflation in March was up 0.6% m/m and 0.2% y/y (from zero last month), slightly higher than market expectation (and ours) of 0.5% m/m. A closer look at the details actually points to a moderation of underlying inflation, with core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) declining ...

The South African bond market remains vulnerable to the country’s weak fundamentals
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Apr 2021

Yields on South African bonds have been particularly volatile since March 2020 largely on the back of the Covid-19 pandemic and the country losing its last investment grade credit rating from a major rating agency, further downgrades, and the subsequent non-resident net sales of bonds. Moreover, ...

Russian timber company's IPO aims at USD 400 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2021

On April 12 Segezha announced that it is launching an IPO in Moscow. However, no date has been set. Segezha has doubled its income since 2016. JP Morgan, UBS and VTB Capital are going to be global coordinators and bookrunners for the IPO.The IPO is anticipated to bring the company's value up to U...

Flights to Turkey severely limited
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2021

On April 12 Moscow seriously restricted flights to Turkey. Over 500,000 Russians are seeking a refund. Flights to Turkey will be severely limited April 14 to June 1. That is because of an increasing number of coronavirus cases in Turkey. Flights to Tanzania have been temporarily banned.On April 1...

Covid-19 CPI: Questions and answers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2021

In this report, we review some of the most frequently asked questions about the Covid-19 CPI in the Federal Senate. Following STF Minister Luis Roberto Barroso’s decision (which should be ratified by the plenary of the Supreme Court), what are the next steps for the installation of the CPI? ...

Politics: Major offensive against election officials
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2021

With the elections two months away, the president and his party have begun a steady barrage of attacks and threats against the National Electoral Institute (INE), the organizer and arbitrator of the electoral process. The offensive began in earnest after the institute voted on March 25 to rule sc...

The STF will decide Lula's future and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2021

On Wednesday, the Federal Supreme Court will hear appeals against the decision by Minister Edson Fachin that annulled the convictions of former President Lula. By Thursday, the government must send Congress the PLDO 2021. In the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco will read the request for the creation of th...

The Russian budget posted a surplus in 1Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that revenue collection soared in March so that in 1Q21 the government was able to collect 28.2% of total revenues targeted for 2021 as a whole. In 1Q21 the government collected 27.0% of annually planned oil-and-gas revenues and 28.8% of the non-oil-and-gas revenues....

Economics: External sector recovery with persistent internal market weakness
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2021

In recent weeks institutions and analysts have been upwardly revising their Mexico GDP projections for 2021, with most now roughly or exactly in line with the 4.5% growth estimate that we have maintained since January. These upward revisions are explained by the extent to which the US economy is ...

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