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US accuses Russia of data breach
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

On January 6 Washington said that Moscow perpetrated the SolarWinds attack. The breach affected government and private sector security. Trump said it was China. However, other cabinet members blame Russia.The FBI, DNI, NSA and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency all blamed Russia. It...

​GULF WEEKLY: Qatar reconciliation, Saudi oil cut, Kuwaiti cabinet may resign, Omani budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC agreed to hold production largely flat for two months, then Saudi voluntarily cut by 1m b/d. * The cut pushed oil to a post-Covid high. Unrelatedly, the Asian LNG spo...

Should we worry about inflation?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

For the last two months of 2020, inflation had surprised on the upside. Although the headline rate still looked rather benign at 3.5% in December, the overall price level in fact increased by 1.9% between October and December, reflecting month-on-month inflation rates of 1.1% in November and 0.9%...

November industry and retail sales data reflects only moderate 2nd wave lockdown impact
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

StatOffice (KSH) statements on industrial output this morning and on retail sales yesterday, both on November data, have justified analyst beliefs, including ours of course, that the initial negative impact of the 2nd wave Covid lockdown would be significantly smaller than the impact of the 1st w...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: hoping for a slightly better life in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2021

Unsurprisingly, the coronavirus, the respective restrictions and the measures undertaken by the authorities were perceived as the most important developments in 2020. After reaching a peak on December 24 (nearly 30K infected) Russia’s number of daily Covid-19 cases has started to subside graduall...

US sanctions force Norwegian company out of Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

On January 4 DNV GL announced that it will no longer provide verification services for the pipeline. The company provided technical and safety certificates. The company had been working on the pipeline for 5 years. It will be hard to find a company to replace this one.The US passed a law called P...

General government deficit at 4.6% of GDP in January-September 2020
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

This was reported yesterday, as the main fiscal indicator, an annualized number compiled on accrual basis, following the EU's ESA-2010 government finance statistics methodology. In a quarterly breakdown, there was a 1.2% of GDP deficit in Q1, followed by 8.4% in Q2 and 4.1% in Q3. The quarterly p...

OPEC + agreement leads to Russia increasing oil output.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

On January 5 it was announced that oil production will be ramped up a little in March in Russia and Kazakhstan. These two countries are not OPEC members but they cooperate with it through a forum called OPEC+. The amount of crude oil withdrawn from the market will be reduced from 7.2 million BPD ...

Second COVID-19 wave smacks economic recovery
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 06 Jan 2021

The second wave of COVID-19 has overshadowed expectations for 2021 consolidation of the economic recovery formed after the announcement of the availability of vaccines, and the prospects for extensive worldwide vaccination campaigns. In December it grew evident that the country was entering a sec...

Minfin’s borrowing program remains ambitious
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2021

Despite better-than-expected execution of the borrowing program in 2020, Russia’s Finance Ministry plans to keep a relatively high pace of OFZ issuance in 1Q21, which is comparable with the results achieved in the second and third quarters of 2020. To remind, it managed to raise R5.3 trln on the ...

Russia to build a pipeline to Pakistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2021

On January 4 it was announced by the Pakistani Prime Minister's Office that Pakistan and Russia shall build a 1 100 km LNG pipeline and gas terminals. Construction is due to commence in July 2021. Pakistan will own at least 51% of the pipeline and Russia the rest.Sui Northern Gas co and Sui North...

Gulf rift resolution expected tomorrow
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

Kuwait's foreign minister has just announced (6.51pm GMT / 1.51pm EST) that Saudi Arabia will reopen its land and air borders to Qatar this evening, the day before it hosts the GCC Summit (Kuna-Arabic). We had heard reports a few hours earlier that officials at the border had been instructed to p...

Iran pays compensation to Ukraine for shooting down plane in 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

On December 30 Iran announced that it shall pay USD 150 000 to each of the families of the 176 people killed when Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner in 2019. The Ukraine International Airlines jet was shot down by the Iranian military minutes after taking off from Tehran. The majority of the pas...

Rates remain stable today, with a more upbeat undertone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

Governor Yaron sounds more optimistic Policy rates remained stable at 0.1% today, as expected. In the press conference, BoI Governor Yaron sounded cautiously optimistic, stating that he sees a greater probability of the optimistic growth scenario of the BoI Research Dept (6.3% in 2021 and 5.8% in...

December inflation: 15 is the new 10?
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2021

Consumer prices rose by 1.25%, m/m, in December, higher than the consensus forecast of 0.9%, but broadly in line with ours. As a result, the 12-month CPI inflation increased further, ending the year at 14.6%, up from 14% in November, and 11.8% at end-2019, therefore missing the target by a wide m...

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