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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lavrov: Russia is willing to sever ties with the EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2021

On February 11 the Russian Foreign Minister said that if the EU introduces more sanctions then Moscow is prepared to reduce links with the EU. The EU will hold a meeting on February 22 to consider additional sanctions on Russia, such as travel, bank and asset freezes on Putin's coterie. The reaso...

The IMF mission ends with "no result"
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2021

The IMF virtual mission finished its work, reported the head of the IMF office in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman, according to Interfax Ukraine news agency. Predictably, no staff level agreement was reached. “The discussion was productive; however, more progress is needed towards completing the first re...

Rosneft profits down 80% YoY
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Feb 2021

On February 12 Rosneft announced a huge fall in 2020 profits. That is due to the drop in crude prices. The profit was USD 2 billion. Dividend payments are being made nonetheless. BP has a 19.8% stake in Rosneft. Shell and BP declared losses in 2020.In Q3 2020 Rosneft suffered a loss of USD 870 mi...

Good news on credit ratings, less so on inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2021

Both S&P and Fitch Ratings have announced the affirmation of their BBB/Stable ratings on Hungary's long-term sovereign debt today. Both agencies expect a forceful bounce-back of the economy, with 4.6-4.9% recovery of real GDP, this year.CPI-inflation remained unchanged at 2.7% yoy in January. Thi...

Belarus convenes a People's Assembly
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2021

On February 11 Lukashenka declared that a People's Assembly shall be summoned. Its task will be to discuss development until 2026 and to propose constitutional amendments. The Assembly is effectively composed of people selected for their loyalty to the president. Lukashanka called the protests ag...

We extend our inflation outlook to 2022 (1,600%)
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

We have extended our outlook for inflation, exchange rates, and dollar purchasing power to 2022. In our central scenario, inflation slows to 2,200 percent this year and 1,600 percent next year from 2,500 percent in 2020. We continue to forecast under one central and two alternative scenarios. ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar commissions LNG expansion, Saudi activist freed, Khamenei digs in heels
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Feb 2021

A skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Khamenei and Biden reasserted “you first” positions, and Iran produced uranium metal. * Biden will reverse the terrorism designation of the Houthis in Yemen, although the...

President Ramaphosa’s 2021 State of the Nation Address offers a mixed scorecard
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

President Cyril Ramaphosa opened this year’s Parliament and delivered the 2021 State of the Nation Address (SONA) under an undoubtedly reshaped global and domestic economic environment. Usually a glamorous and expensive affair, the opening of Parliament in 2021 was scaled down to 30 Members of Pa...

Rising inflation: King Canute´s new tide
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

The government’s attempt to stop inflation with price controls, export regulations and wage agreements, while simultaneously financing the fiscal deficit with expanding monetary aggregates and rising BCRA debt, reminds us of the legend of King Canute and his futile order to the sea, to stop the r...

Russian family savings increase twofold in 12 months
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2021

Data released by Rosstat on February 10 showed that savings are up dramatically despite incomes going down. Russian household savings are now USD 70 billion. People have saved more because they cannot spend on travel and entertainment as much. Working from home also helped. Household consumption ...

Fitch downgraded key Panamanian banks following the Republic's recent assessment and negative valuation of the financial Operating Environment
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2021

As the result of the February 3 downgrade of Panama's Sovereign risk by Fitch Ratings from BBB to BBB-, the agency downgraded yesterday five important Panamanian banks - including the state-owned Banco Nacional de Panama (BNP). Banco General, the largest private bank in the country, dropped two n...

Russia planning to streamline guest worker regulations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2021

On February 10 the government said it is examining the simplification of the visa process for migrant laborers. The country has been confronted by an accute paucity of workers in farming, construction and public sanitation. In March 2020 Russia closed its borders. Tens of thousands of guest worke...

Russian limp growth means country will not reach advanced economy status
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2021

On February 11 the IMF stated that Russia's anemic economy means that the country will not achieve advanced status. Growth was a poor 1.3% even before coronavirus struck. The economy contracted by 3.1%: less than almost any other major economy. That is partly attributable to the absence of a seco...

The Russian budget posted a small deficit in January as expenditures were up y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

Federal budget revenues dropped by 3.7% y-o-y in January amid 3.3% y-o-y growth of expenditures. Oil-and-gas revenues were down by 19.7%, while non-oil-and-gas revenues were up by 6.7% y-o-y. In January, the government collected 8.0% and spent 7.8% of the annual plan. The result looks good as usu...

Troubled Waters Ahead
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

When 99.67% of the compiled votes have been counted, the difference between Guillermo Lasso from CREO (19.59%) and Yaku Perez (19.70%) has shrunk around 0.2% since yesterday. There are still 3.53% of compiled votes being revised and counted (close to 400,000 individual votes pending of being veri...

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