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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Fakhrizadeh killing could speed lifting of sanctions if Iran shows restraint
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2020

If Iran maintains strategic patience in responding to the killing of its nuclear scientist, despite pressure from hardliners in parliament, the incident should actually increase the urgency of the Biden Administration in quickly restoring the JCPOA, our baseline scenario. However, if there are fu...

Japan angry at Russian missiles in Kuril Islands
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2020

On December 2 Tokyo denounced the stationing of S-300 surface to air missiles on islands claimed by Japan but owned by Russia. Moscow announced that the air defense system was on the island on Iturup.Japan lost the islands to the USSR in 1945. Tokyo has always spoken out against Russian military ...

A Merry Christmas for Russia's billionaires
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2020

On December 1 Bloomberg revealed that Russian billionaires have gained USD 468 million to their fortunes in 2020. The stock market rally in November really helped this.Of the 22 richest people in Russia: 16 of them gained a total of USD 14 billion and 6 lost a total of USD 13.6 billion. Suleiman ...

Incoming President of Moldova calls for Russian troops to leave
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2020

On November 30 Maia Sandu said that Russian troops should leave Transdnistria. Transdnistria is a region of Moldova that broke away in 1991. Russian troops have been there ever since. Moscow says that they are peacekeepers. Moldova says that they are occupiers. Sandu wants unarmed European observ...

Inflation: warning signs that should be monitored
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2020

Inflation accelerated at the start of the second half, first led by the rise of food prices, but now the process is more disseminated. The depreciation of the exchange rate, which in 2020 has amounted to a bit over 30%, is the main culprit for this increase of prices, and the depreciation in turn...

Conflict with the EU does not affect current transfer payments
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2020

Today, Hungary is receiving a €200 mn payment from the EU, the first instalment of a €504 mn loan to cover fiscal spending on the health care sector and job protection, both in relation to the Covid epidemic. The loan, which is part of the EU-s bond-financed SURE program, will be repayable in 15 ...

Russia consumer spending down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2020

On Black Friday there was a 39% YoY fall in spending in stores. By contrast some e-commerce sites reported sales bonanzas. Online shopping was 61% more than on a typical Friday. That is still not enough to compensate the retail sector for the collapse in in-person shopping. Wildberries and Ozon a...

An imminent breakthrough on the Qatar rift is possible but unlikely
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2020

* A regional visit by Jared Kushner has raised hopes of a breakthrough on the rift, although he is more focused on the Israel normalization push. * The best outcome, still unlikely, is an easing of the airspace blockade by Saudi Arabia. * For Saudi Arabia a resolution could help ease tensions w...

Politics: The government’s skewed budget priorities
MEXICO · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Following the adage that one discerns a government’s priorities not from its speeches but from its budgets, the first conclusion we can draw from the 2021 spending budget is that the health, economic and security crises plaguing the country have failed to move President López Obrador enough to ma...

Economics: A harsh labor outlook for year-end 2020
MEXICO · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Labor market data for the third quarter of 2020 offers an initial glimpse of the extent to which household economies grew increasingly precarious after the Mexican economy experienced its most pronounced contraction on record in 2Q20. The glimpse is initial because the data is somewhat distorted ...

UK labs say Russian coronavirus vaccine works
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

On November 29 a British lab said that Sputnik V is ''reasonably effective''. Professor Ian Jones of the University of Reading approved the vaccine. There are still some doubts over the data supplied.Professor Evans at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine also voice confidence in th...

Sharp rise in private investment worries Russian authorities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

Retail investors have started investing in stocks as they seek better returns due to ever reducing bank interest rates. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is perturbed that this will jeopardize the financial sector.There has been high inflation since the early 1990s. There have been high bank depos...

Credit stress in large private firms - an update
INDIA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

In this report, we review the state of credit stress in large private firms. Given the debt moratoriums and the suspension of the bankruptcy process, a good deal of the bad news is not visible in conventional accounting data. The Merton/KMV model exploits the level and volatility of stock prices,...

A surplus in the current account
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Indonesia has already seen the painful impact of the pandemic on its economic growth. For the first time since the Asian Crisis in 1998, when the economy declined by 14%, the Indonesian economy declined, by 5.32% in Q2 2020 after positive growth of 2.97% in Q1 2020. In Q3 2020, the Indonesian eco...

​Q3 GDP: Strong rebound, at a steep cost
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Following a sharp, pandemic-driven drop in the second quarter (9.9%, y/y), GDP surged by a higher than expected 6.7% in the third quarter vs consensus forecast of around 5-5.5%, thanks, chiefly, to the unlocking of the economy in the summer months, and extremely strong loan growth. In working day...

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