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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Essential CIS Politics: September 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2020

* Russia’s economic recovery has continued slowly but there are energy price worries. * Nord Stream 2 continues, with some calls for Germany to cancel it. * In Belarus the president is holding on and has secured Russian support. * In Ukraine, the ceasefire is at risk.

Belarus will repay USD 330 million to Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

On September 20 Russian Finance Minister Siluanov announced that Belarus will use some of the latest 1.5 billion to repay a debt to Russian state gas company Gazprom. USD 1 billion will be lent to Belarus by the end of December 2020. A further USD 500 million will be lent early in 2021. Belarussi...

Deflation and renewed closure likely to support further loosening
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Sep 2020

Inflation in August surprised on the downside, with core inflation moving deeper into negative territory (-0.5% y/y). Despite recent indicators of growth acceleration, the renewed closure will clearly reverse this trend. The combination of slowing growth and pronounced deflation support a more ac...

Economics: The short budget leash of 2021
MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2020

This week we are following up on our analysis of the López Obrador Administration’s Economic Package for 2021, which is comprised of the General Economic Policy Criteria (GEPC), the Budget Proposal and the Federal Revenue Law Initiative. Unsurprisingly, this administration has handed us for ...

Deflation and renewed closure likely to support further loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Sep 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 21.9.20 Inflation surprises on the downside Inflation remained stable m/m in August below market expectations of 0.2% m/m. Inflation in August declined to -0.8% y/y (from -0.6% in July). Core inflation move lower to -0.5% y/y (from -0.4% in July). Eig...

A date with fate
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2020

Going deeply against the grain, we call only for minor sanctions from the EU at the upcoming Leaders’ Summit on September 26th, maintaining our view that short of a Biden Presidency, foreign policy shocks are very likely to be too mild, compared to the domestic political-cum-economic ones. Yet, w...

Russia keeps interest rate steady
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2020

On September 18 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) decided not to cut the interest rate. There have been several successive cuts over the past two years. Inflation increased surprisingly on Q3 2020 and the RUB fell. These moves may have promoted the September 18 decision. The Governor of the CBR sa...

Belarus strengthens borders
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2020

On September 17 Lukashenka announced that borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia would be closed because of interference with Belarus' affairs. In fact this has not happened. However, the border has been strengthened. It is rumored that Lukashenka's favorite son Nikolai, 16, has been sent to s...

Uzbek companies transferred
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020

On September 18 Ozodlik published an article saying that cabinet sources revealed that six major industrial and energy companies have been transferred to the trust of SFI Management Group. SFI Management Group is owned by Alisher Usmanov who is a Russian-Uzbek oligarch.Usmanov said that the compa...

Unemployment lines at the INSS are challenging for the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2020

The increase in unemployment lines and the accumulation of lawsuits at the National Institute of Social Security (INSS), a consequence of specialty doctors who refuse to return to in-person work, are putting pressure on the government in the social arena. Today, the Institute of Brazilian Geograp...

The Russian economy in August: slow recovery continues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020

Rosstat reported that in August, the economic recovery continued across the board, albeit slowly. Most of the indicators looked better y-o-y than in July, especially taking into account that this year August had fewer working days than a year ago. Some previous data have been revised up slightly,...

Russia approves coronavirus drugs for sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020

Two Russian manufactured coronavirus drugs have been licensed for sale in drug stores on September 17. Both of them are version of favirpirvir which was originally an anti-flu medicine invented in Japan. The drugs are in pill form. Trials prove that recovery times are speedy. India and China have...

​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain normalizes, US upgrades Qatar alliance, Libya to restart oil
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2020 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Bahrain and UAE signed normalization agreements with Israel in Washington. * We do not expect any other Gulf states to follow imminently, for differing reasons. * Coronav...

The virus has returned for a second wave
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Sep 2020

Following the European trend, Covid-19 cases have picked up sharply since late August. Much of this can be blamed on increased virus testing, but that cannot explain a great part of the problem. Indeed, the hit ratio of testing has risen back to the record levels seen in Q2 and continues to rise....

A self-made perfect storm
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Sep 2020

​A climate of dialogue and cooperation among the main political forces in March allowed the harnessing of support from a large majority of the population, to implement lockdowns that helped dampen the pace of infections and deaths. This early action allowed time to reinforce the health care syst...

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