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Ukraine investigating Biden
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2020

On May 21 a court in Kyiv authorized the Prosecutor-General to investigate Joe Biden. The allegation is that Biden interfered in the work of a previous Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin. Tapes were released showing Biden's conversation with the at the time President Poroshenko over the situation. ...

2020-2022 Outlook: Hitting bottom or continuing freefall?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 May 2020

Our outlook through 2022 begins with a single scenario for 2020, then branches off into two scenarios for 2021–2022 that we consider equally likely: Regime Change or Chavismo Persists. In both scenarios, Maduro is assumed to remain in power at least through the end of 2020. A collapsing oil se...

Washington accuses Russia of sending warplanes to Libya
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2020

On May 26 the Pentagon said that Russia is sending military aircraft to support rebels in Libya. The US recognizes the Government of National Accord (GNA) which holds the UN seat for Libya. The US claims that Russian Air Force units flew to Syria where they were repainted to hide their livery. Th...

Russia banks importing most USD since 2014
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2020

On May 27 Russian Central Bank data revealed that Russia is importing more USD than any time since sanctions were imposed. Russia brought in USD 5 billion and EUR 1 billion in March 2020.The RUB tumbled 20% in the first half of March. That was 80.8 to the USD which was the RUB's lowest value sinc...

Maia tries to defuse the institutional climate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2020

In view of the turbulence in the relationship between the Planalto Palace and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Speaker of the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), on May 26, at the House plenary, gave a moderate speech and established his position. Carefully and looking for conciliation,...

Is it the end of the world as we know it?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 26 May 2020

Only a handful of countries can claim to have been prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic. The Philippines is not one of them. When local transmission began, the government resorted to the only tool it had to contain the outbreak: the lockdown hammer. It used this to close government and business, of...

Russia in April: economic performance is uneven across sectors but doesn’t surprise
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020 · 1 response

Rosstat released preliminary statistics for April and reported that retail was strongly down m-o-m and y-o-y - by 28.5% (not seasonally adjusted) and by 23.3% respectively. A very deep contraction was generally expected, but the published figures will help to come up with a more reliable macroeco...

The MNB appears to be satisfied with its current policies
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2020

The Monetary Council announced no policy change after today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting. In its statement, the Council acknowledged with satisfaction the Q1 GDP data (+2% yoy in sda terms), and confirmed its expectation that adjusted core CPI-inflation (3.8% yoy in April) will decelera...

China virus check – week ending May 25
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry. 2) Traffic congestion is becoming more even. 3) Expressway traffic is rising at a slow pace. 4) Underground metro rail traffic rising slowly. 5) Little change in freight l...

Institutional noise amid the worsening of the pandemic
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro yesterday made a surprise visit to the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGR) to greet Attorney Carlos Vilhena, who took office as the new head of the Attorney General’s Office. Bolsonaro also met with Prosecutor General Augusto Aras. Bolsonaro’s trip to the PGR occurred after...

The latest numbers for the fiscal performance are surprising… for the wrong reasons
PANAMA · Report · 26 May 2020

The Ministry’s projection of the level of nominal GDP for 2020 is US$ 64,000 MM, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the official figure for 2019. We predict deflation of 0.5% for the year; therefore, real GDP, according to the fiscal quarterly data, might decrease by around 3.3% in 2020, a more pessi...

Russia’s pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 May 2020

As several influential media sources, such as last week the FT, Bloomberg, The Economist, accused Russia of significantly under-reporting the country’s death toll and suggested that the actual number of the virus-related lethal cases should have been higher by around 70%, the Russian authorities ...

Brazilian Politics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 May 2020

Continued repercussions about the video of the April 22 cabinet meeting released by STF Minister Celso de Mello. Bolsonaro sanctions emergency aid for states and municipalities. The Lower House may vote a provisional measure that reduces salaries and working hours. Congress installs a working ...

The long end of the curve appears well anchored on BoI purchases
ISRAEL · Report · 25 May 2020

The economy continues to return gradually to full activity. - Credit card purchases increased by 80% from April 19th to May 18th. - Purchases in mid-May are still down 12% YTD. - Output of electricity in the first two weeks of May is down 9.9% y/y compare to -12.8% in April. April's data re...

Economics: Deep contraction after an inertia of stagnation
MEXICO · Report · 25 May 2020

It is of fundamental importance to consider the differences that separate the current crisis from that of 2009 in terms of their consequences for income levels and, specifically, the percentage of the population that will be pushed into poverty as a result of this immediate experience. Unlike...

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