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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Managing the fallout from the covid-19 crisis
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2020

After revising its GDP growth target to a more realistic -2 to -3.4%, government is now crafting its economic recovery program in consultation with private sector stakeholders. I have been asked to provide feedback on the draft Philippine Program for Recovery with Equity and Solidarity (PH-PROGRE...

Political crisis “goes one step further”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2020

The temperature of the political clash between President Jair Bolsonaro and the governors remains quite high. Although Bolsonaro has stated that he is willing to talk to the governors, and the Provisional Measure (MP) that frees public officials from responsibility for any mistakes or omissions i...

COVID in action
CHILE · Report · 14 May 2020

Due to the early social isolation measures, and helped by a bit of panic, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) contracted by 3.5% in the 12 months to March. Moreover, in March the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC declined by 6.1% m/m. March retail sales, the first to capture the e...

A budget amendment bill will double the deficit
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 14 May 2020

The government is preparing to submit a bill to Congress aimed at amending the 2020 budget law. The Ministry of Finance announced that the bill will be submitted in the second half of May and that the new budget would increase the deficit target of from the equivalent of 2.2% of GDP to 4.5% of GD...

The "chicken race" continues
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 May 2020

As might have been expected, in this “chicken race” between the government and bondholders to restructure Argentina’s debt, in which both are trying to obtain the best possible deal, the first official proposal did not reach the needed majorities to reach an agreement. The fact that it was a u...

Ukraine receives IMF loan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 May 2020

On May 13 the Ukrainian Parliament approved a banking law known as the Anti-Kolomoisky Act. The law forbids failed banks being restored to former shareholders. This specifically relates to Privat Bank which Ihor Kolomoisky used to own. This law was a precondition for receiving an IMF loan. This i...

Bolsonaro’s partial victory in the “war of narratives”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2020

Amid rumors about the presence of allegedly “devastating content” against President Jair Bolsonaro in the video of the ministerial cabinet meeting on April 22, the three ministers, General Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), General Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) and Gene...

Rescuing the financial system
INDIA · Report · 13 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 12, the Prime Minister made a speech in which he talked about Rs.20 trillion that will be brought into play (in ways that are as yet unspecified). He struck an optimistic note, suggesting that the worst of the epidemic is behind us, and that we now rebuild. There was a surprising emphasis ...

Perspectives for banking legislation in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2020

The voting agenda for the Senate tomorrow, May 14, includes a bill that limits interest rates on credit cards and overdrafts (PL 1166/2020). For next week, there are plans to include analysis of the proposal that increases the CSLL (Social Contribution on Profits) for financial institutions, insu...

“Anti-Kolomoysky” law approved, IMF’s turn to move
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 May 2020

Parliament approved “Anti-Kolomoysky” law , which prevents return of nationalized Privatbank to its previouse owners. It was a long way to go for Ukrainian authorities. Many concerns about independence of president Zelenskiy. But finally we saw that Zelenskiy is trying to make decisions with his ...

Political tension on the horizon
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2020

The testimonies given today by Ministers Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), Braga Netto (Civil House) and Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government Secretariat) may be decisive in the inquiry opened at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to investigate the accusations made by former Minister Sergio...

CBR policy: more rate cuts needed to offset quantitative tightening
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2020

There is no doubt that the impact of the lockdown on the Russian economy in April was strong, and the decision to gradually lift the imposed restrictions is quite understandable – even despite the rather high numbers of infections in Russia. In this regard it is worth reiterating that despite the...

China virus check – week ending May 12
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) A strong upturn in coal use in the power industry. 2) Strong traffic congestion but expressway traffic down due to comparisons with the week-earlier holiday. 3) Underground metro rail traffic moving up relatively stea...

Russia easing lockdown despite surging cases
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2020

On May 11 Putin said the lockdown would be eased for most people. The president claimed that the lockdown had allowed the health service to get more equipment. It begs the question why Russia was sending the doctors and aid to other countries when Russia has shortages. In Moscow the lockdown has ...

First hearing in the investigation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2020

Today began the first testimonies of the investigation into the alleged attempt by President Bolsonaro to politically interfere in the Federal Police (PF), following accusations from former Cabinet Minister Sergio Moro. The hearing of Mauricio Valeixo, the previous director of the PF,​ in Curitib...

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