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Essential CIS Politics: February 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2020

• Russia prepares for poll on far-reaching changes to the constitution; • In Azerbaijan the ruling party was comfortably re-elected in a disputed election; • Ukraine and Russia made more tentative moves towards peace – though Minsk Agreement now being questioned; • Clashes between native Kazak...

​Gulf weekly: Lebanon nears default, Sharjah downgraded and Kuwait has a new finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The OPEC+ meeting will not be brought forward as coronavirus concerns ease somewhat. * Tensions in Yemen increased after Houthi rebels shot down ...

South Africa Conference Call - South Africa 2020 - The Budget, the SONA and the country's ratings
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Join us for a conference call as our Johannesburg-based South Africa Country Analyst Iraj Abedian explores the implications of the 2020 State of the Nation and Budget announcements on the prospects for the country's growth, political dynamics and social stability, and sovereign debt ratings.

Israel Conference Call - Israel after the elections: The prospects for stability and fiscal consolidation
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Feb 2020

Join us for a conference call as our Tel Aviv-based Israel Country Analyst Jonathan Katz explores the implications of the March 2020 elections on the prospects for the country's political stability, fiscal dynamics and growth.

Virus and the Chinese stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Feb 2020

I received this question: How big can any new stimulus be without debt leverage going through the roof? China so far has soft-pedaled its economic response to the economic impact of the coronavirus. We’ve seen a couple of short-term measures, including lower lending rates, short-term loans to ...

Former Yukos shareholders awarded USD 50 billion by court
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Feb 2020

On February 17 the Court of Appeal in the Netherlands found favor of onetime shareholders of Yukov. The judgment comes after 15 years of legal wrangling. Russia is now supposed to pay USD 50 billion in compensation to the former shareholders of the Russian oil supermajor. In 2003 the Yukos CEO Mi...

​Latest on Idlib: Russia delegation arrives in Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Feb 2020 · 1 response

I am still in no position to craft an analysis about the war in Idlib between Turkey and the Damascus regime. Fighting rages in two fronts, report Turkish press and international sources, but it is noteworthy that Turkish press and media have suddenly dialed down the intensity of the coverage, wh...

Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems (report preview)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 1.1% in January, implying seemingly a rather slow start for the year. Manufacturing, however, expanded by a more impressive 3.9% y-o-y growth, which was on a par with 4Q19 y-o-y growth (the same 3.9%). Mining, power generation and supply of...

HEADS UP: Military action started in Idlib
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Feb 2020

This is not a Market Brief, because news broke only an hour ago, leaving me no time for analysis. However, TL denominated assets are spooked, therefore I owe our audience a brief HEADS UP. As Turkish press reports “Anti-Assad Rebels supported by elements of Turkish Armed Forced staged a counterat...

Ukrainians evacuated from China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2020

On February 19 the Ukrainian Government's chartered plane flew Ukrainian citizens out of Wuhan, China. Kyiv has been criticized for being so tardy in getting its people out of the affected area. The Ukrainians evacuated from Wuhan will be isolated in an undisclosed location for two weeks before b...

Wobbly lira doesn't deter the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Feb 2020 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 50 bps today, bringing the cumulative cuts since July to 1325 bps, and the policy rate to 10.75% (see chart). Probably reflecting the ongoing pressures on the currency, it was a little hard to speak of a consensus befo...

Good king, bad nobles: despite scandals, Zelenskiy still #1
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Feb 2020

The year was off to a bumpy start. January began with the shocking news of the Ukrainian passenger plane crash in Iran. Ukrainian officials seemed unsure of how to react to this tragedy, which killed 176 people. As world leaders began blaming Iran, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was still making v...

Weakening growth and currency, exploding inflation: a more colorful picture than so far
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2020

The macro picture has become more dynamic and colorful over the past month than previously. The most recent data marks a downward adjustment in industrial output, the most export-driven part of the economy, and more may be coming if the coronavirus problem sets back the Chinese economy to a serio...

Russia-backed fighters unleashed large offensive at Donbas
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Feb 2020

Today at 5 a.m. near the points of mutual forces’ withdrawal Russia-backed fighters started large-scale shelling of Ukrainian positions and followed with an offensive, according to the headquarter of Ukrainian Army. The battle still continues by the time of this writing. We have not observed that...

Politics: Impunity and objective merit in security
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2020

The crisis of the criminal justice system that has steadily deepened since the federal government’s offensive against organized crime was launched almost 14 years ago is becoming even more visible. And now there is the aggravating factor that some of the most significant steps toward reform, espe...

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