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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Essential CIS Politics: April 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2020

▪ Coronavirus has hit all countries in the region. The oil exporting ones are suffering most heavily, with several percentage points likely to be wiped off GDP. ▪ Belarus is carrying on as though Covid-19 is no threat despite admitting to some cases. ▪ The end of the OPEC+ oil deal caused econo...

Mamma Mia!
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee has cut the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 100 bps today to 8.75% (simple), which is more than our, as well as the consensus forecasts of around 50 bps reduction (see chart). To be honest, we stopped being surprised by our central bank’s actions to a great exte...

Russian oil company Tatneft may have to delay dividend payout
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Tatneft has dropped its plan to buy out shareholders. On April 22 the board of Tatneft advised cancelling its planned payout of fourth quarter dividend that was due in June. The company is desperate to keep money in its accounts so it can get through this downturn. Tatneft is the 5th biggest oil ...

USA sends ambassador to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

On April 20 Trump nominated the first US ambassador to Belarus in 12 years. There has been a thaw in US-Belarussian relations. Julie Fisher is being sent to Minsk. Ms. Fisher is a career diplomat, not a political appointee. She has served in other former USSR countries and speaks fluent Russian. ...

China Q1 revenue
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

The Chinese Ministry of Finance Tuesday afternoon issued its budget and revenue report for Q1 2020. The headline numbers showed a year-on-year decline of 14.3%. But items jumped out that are worth flagging, some of which are difficult to understand.

China virus check – week ending April 21
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and a slight increase iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight rise in the growth of traffic congestion. 3) Expressway traffic up 10%. 4) Metro rail traffic is down slightly. 5) Sh...

Will President Rodrigo Duterte lift the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) on April 30?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

With just a little over a week to go, the debate in policy circles has turned fiercer. It is not difficult to detect the bias within government for another extension, especially after resigned socio-economic planning secretary Ernesto Pernia revealed that his was a “dissonant voice” in the Dutert...

Finally, a unity government in Israel + dovish MPC protocol
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Blue & White party leader Gantz have signed an agreement to form a unity government. Under the agreement, Netanyahu and Gantz will rotate the premiership. Netanyahu will serve as prime minister for eighteen months and Gantz for eighteen months after him. The original ...

​Is Turkey deferring S-400 activation?
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020 · 1 response

In penning this Market Brief I’m torn between accuracy and timeliness.I opted out for timeliness, hoping the report by Reuters that Turkey will defer the activation ofS-400 anti-missile systems “to a future date” will not be refuted by the Erdogan administration. Traditionally, the Palace is extr...

Bolsonaro’s dual strategy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2020

After the negative repercussions of his participation in a protest with supporters that supported a military intervention and the closing of the Federal Supreme Court and Congress, President Jair Bolsonaro, when leaving the official residence at the Alvorada Palace, stated that Congress and the S...

Bolsonaro: The risks of radicalizing the narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2020

Despite the Tuesday, April 21, holiday, this will be a busy week. The Lower House may vote on urgency for the bill that institutes compulsory loans for companies with assets greater than R$ 1 billion. Congress may also vote on the provisional measure that reduces salaries and working hours, as we...

Politics: More polarization or a national accord
MEXICO · Report · 20 Apr 2020

The Covid-19 virus continues to spread in Mexico, although at a relatively moderate rate. With the number of people detected with the virus doubling every seven days, and fatalities doing so every four, at the current clip Mexico could end the month with four times as many confirmed cases. Covid-...

Fighting to survive
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2020

The title of our most recent quarterly was "Year 2020: More of the same amidst a complicated political situation". We were not expecting Covid-19. Ecuador has been under strict norms of social isolation for over a month. A few economic sectors are continuing with varying levels of activity, but f...

Covid-19 crisis: no V-shaped recovery is likely
HUNGARY · Forecast · 20 Apr 2020

Under the new reality that governs the world in these days, current macro forecasts are determined mainly by the outlook on events related to the Covid-19 epidemic. There are two key factors in this regard: 1) the prospective development of the epidemic; and 2) the nature and size of policy respo...

Economics: Recalibrating for Phase 3
MEXICO · Report · 20 Apr 2020 · 1 response

When Mexico’s labor minister recently appeared at a presidential press conference to announce job losses registered between March 13 and April 6, she couched the news in the government’s particular political perspective. Both the minister and President López Obrador specifically linked the layoff...

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