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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Grappling with the slowdown by means of a corporate tax rate cut
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The central challenge in Indian macroeconomics consists of the reduced investment rate of private persons. Corporate investment is now down to levels seen in previous slumps. There has been a sharp increase in the dividend payout rate. This shows firms paying out their cash, instead of investing ...

An exciting Monetary Council meeting is due tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2019

On Tuesday, September 24, the Monetary Council is scheduled to come together for a rate-setting meeting and to discuss the next quarterly inflation report. On this occasion, no-one expects any change in interest rates, and indeed, analysts seem to agree that no interest rate measure is likely at ...

A larger dose of monetary stimulus
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2019

We are reducing our SELIC rate forecast to 4.5% a year at the end of 2019. To what do we owe such change? The conditional projections shown in the Central Bank’s most recent communiqué, indicating that if the exchange rate remains stable at R$4.05/US$ and the SELIC falls to 5%, inflation would en...

Coalition formation will take some time, with no simple solution in sight
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Sep 2019

Economic indicators for early Q3 2019 point to robust growth, likely to reach 3%-3.5%. The labor market remains tight and at near full employment, unsupportive of more accommodating policy. Israeli institutions continued to sell FX in July, a trend that has supported shekel appreciation this year...

New Governor of St Petersburg promises renovation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2019

On September 18 Alexander Beglov was sworn in as the Governor of St Petersburg. St Petersburg is Russia's second biggest city and its former capital. The new governor pledged to upgrade the city's infrastructure. He has had himself filmed handing out snow shovels in readiness for winter. A large ...

​Erdogan’s historic summit with Trump---if it takes place
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2019

I’ve shirked my responsibility of contributing to our Weekly Tracker on Sunday, because the marque event of the week, i.e. Trump-Erdogan summit had not been arranged.To add some background, before he flew to New York City, Erdogan warned all stakeholders in Syria that the Turkish side has complet...

Gulf weekly: Aftermath of Abqaiq attack resonates but other business continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Sep 2019

The aftermath of the Abqaiq attack remained the main focus for the oil market and regional geopolitics. Developments to date seem to support our view that an escalation is unlikely and the focus is shifting to posturing and possible negotiations at the UN General Assembly over the next few days. ...

On the BRSA decision
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2019

We depart from our usual weekly format this week, and share some quick thoughts on last week’s BRSA decision that instructed banks to reclassify TL46 billion (about $8 billion) worth of loans as non-performing. We shall report on politics, and if need be on economics, during the week.

Secret negotiations over Ukrainian bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2019

The Financial Times published a story on September 19 saying that the Prime Minister of Ukraine Oleksiy Honcharuk is in negotiation with Ihor Kolomoisky about PrivatBank. Kolomoisky owned PrivatBank until it was nationalized in 2016. Kolomoisky then lived in Switzerland due to legal exposure in U...

Low growth, high fiscal deficit, and mixed news in the institutional front
PANAMA · Report · 20 Sep 2019

The growth rate in the second quarter was 2.8%, the lowest since the financial crisis of 2Q-2009. For the first half of the year it was 3.0%; therefore, the 4.0% growth that MEF projects seems difficult to achieve, despite the expected boom in copper exports. From a national accounting-GDP perspe...

Ukrainian budget is reasonable and optimistic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Sep 2019

On September 15 the Ukrainian Government published its budget for 2020. The budget is based on predicted GDP growth of 3.3%. The World Bank estimates it will be 3.4%.Subsidies to keep utility prices low are being slashed from USD 2.2 million this year to USD 1.9 million in 2020. As there might be...

Detained American banker in Russia a step closer to freedom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Sep 2019

Michael Calvey was arrested in February 2019 on suspicion of massive fraud. Calvey had been an executive at Baring Vostok which is one of the biggest investment firms in Russia. A state investigative committee concluded on September 18 that the ITFG shares that Baring Vostok transferred to Vostoc...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Russia’s economy is making slow progress due to fiscal discipline. Kazakhstan has faced serious protests against overweening Chinese influence. Ukraine and Russia are de-escalating the conflict in east Ukraine. The Uzbek currency has floated freely as part of economic liberalization.

Conference call on Mexico's 2020 budget proposal: Will fiscal discipline prevail in 2020?
MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Mexico conference call topics included: What can the 2020 Budget Proposal tell us about Mexico's direction going forward? Can fiscal discipline be maintained while AMLO's key social projects advance? How will the parameters proposed in the budget impact the oil industry and public sector debt sta...

Supply-side solutions for demand-side problems
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue:​ * Although China’s GDP growth has continued to slow quite dramatically, Beijing doesn’t yet seem to have been panicked into planning a heavy stimulus. Although I do think we can expect a mild stimulus in the next month or two, I continue to believe t...

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