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Update on the financial stress – the deeper problem in real estate
INDIA · Report · 12 Jun 2019

Dewan Housing ("DHFL"), which has a balance sheet of about Rs.1.3 trillion, has defaulted. By September 2018, this firm was on the shortlist of stressed financial firms, and now we have the default. This will be a difficult default to address, as India does not have a resolution process for finan...

MPC: Better safe than sorry
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Jun 2019

The Monetary Policy Committee left the short-term rates unchanged today in line with the expectations, including ours (see chart). In the past day or two, there had been some speculation that the CBRT could be tempted to ease rates today, given the relative stability in the lira and strengthening...

MÁP+ appears as a new factor in monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jun 2019 · 1 response

MÁP+, the government's new 5-year retail bond started with a spectacular success. The Treasury sold a massive HUF529bn of it between between June 3-7, the first week following its debut. This raised the outstanding amount of retail bonds to HUF8060bn, according to finance minister Varga. Or perha...

​A truly political tangle: PJ-Pichetto as Macri’s vice-presidential candidate
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2019 · 1 response

In our last monthly report (“Political tango or political tangle?”) we echoed the view that in case Massa abandoned Alternativa Federal to join forces with the Kirchnerists (as is expected to be announced any moment), that Macri might consider the possibility of widening the Cambiemos´ coalition ...

Economics: The toll of Trump’s threatened tariffs
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jun 2019 · 1 response

President Donald Trump announced late Friday that his plan to impose a 5% tariff on all goods of Mexican origin, increasing 5% each month until reaching 25% in October, had been averted. He claimed this was because his government had wrung major concessions from Mexican officials on efforts to cl...

Pressure on the agenda for Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2019

The rapporteur of Pension Reform, Samuel Moreira (PSDB-SP) is expected to present his report after the Governors’ Forum, which takes place in Brasília on June 11. Congressional representatives are resisting the inclusion of states and municipalities in the reform. Congress may vote on an extraord...

Politics: Immigration problems not going away
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2019

After many days of uncertainty, Mexico and the United States closed a deal on Central American migration that will, for the time being, prevent the establishment of tariffs on Mexican US-bound exports. The deal calls for more muscular border enforcement in Mexico, including the deployment of 6,00...

Weak growth and monetary easing ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Jun 2019

In a climate of decelerating world growth, with rising risk aversion and a sharp decline in Treasuries yields, we have redone our projections for growth for 2019 and 2020. In them we assume that despite all the political noise, a robust pension reform will be approved, reducing the fiscal risk. A...

Worse Global Scenario and Contagion to Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2019

Since the second half of 2018, the global PMI has been repeatedly reduced, accompanied by a decline of industrial production growth rates, indicating continuing deceleration of world growth. The IMF and World Bank have also frequently revised the expectations for world growth downward for this ye...

We expect a seasonally high CPI in May
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jun 2019

The fiscal deficit stands at 3.8 % GDP LTM, with rapid expenditures and slow tax growth. Wage pressure continues, fueled by a tight labor market. We expect a high CPI print in May (to be published on Friday), at the high end of consensus. Highlights: Wage pressure continues into Q1 2019. - ...

​Final curtain in S-400 crisis
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2019 · 1 response

I must warn my audience that political uncertainty is escalating very rapidly to the stratosphere, while financial markets are unusually calm.This brief is dedicated to the alarming developments at the S-400 front, but according to a new ORC poll, in Istanbul candidates are head-to-head, raising ...

​The state of the union is… worried.
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Jun 2019

When Chilean presidents deliver their annual state of the union speech, they usually list the achievements of the previous year, and announce policies to come. The standard line is, ‘we have achieved much, and there is much left to do’. When President Sebastian Piñera delivered his annual state o...

Central Bank Rate Drop
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Jun 2019

In a quite unprecedented and surprising move, the Central Bank decided to cut the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 50 bp last week, taking it to 2.5%. Pretty much every market analyst, according to Bloomberg’s Survey, expected the Central Bank to keep the rate unchanged. The same was implicit in the...

Political turmoil in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2019

An institutional conflict between the Moldovan Parliament and the Constitutional Court is exposing oligarchs’ leverage on political institutions. After three months of negotiations since the February elections, a government was finally formed in Moldova following a surprising alliance between two...

Ukraine's Parliamentary elections will cause major change
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2019

Ukraine's Rada (Parliament) is scheduled for an election on July 21. The polls conducted on June 3 show that the Rada's composition is due to change radically. A new political party called Servant of the People is on 48%. This is President Zelensky's party. If this party does as well as polls sug...

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