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Brazil Conference Call: Challenges facing the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2018

​What are the most important economic challenges facing the Bolsonaro government? How will it move the economy from a sluggish recovery to accelerating growth? Can it achieve the fiscal consolidation necessary to alter the current debt/GDP trajectory?​

COSTA RICA: Constitutional Court approves fiscal reform package
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Nov 2018

Costa Rica’s Constitutional Court on November 23 unanimously green-lighted the fiscal reform package. The decision came after a public service workers' strike, and more than a year of discussions. The Supreme Court had indicated that the plan, approved by the Legislative Assembly 35-22 in its fi...

Russia plans to block international cryptocurrencies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2018

A bill to ban access to international cyrptocurrencies has been introduced to the Duma. The legislation would also grant the central bank sweeping powers over Russian cryptocurrencies. This would shore up the status of the central bank. The default setting for the Russian Government is to control...

Azerbaijan assists Turkmenistan's TAPI pipeline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2018

Last week President Aliyev of Azerbaijan visited Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan share a maritime border in the Caspian Sea. This is the first state visit by the Azerbaijani president to Turkmenistan. The two countries did only USD 164 million of trade last year. The visa regime between...

Kerch Strait incident raises tensions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2018

On 25 November three Ukrainian warships tried to sail to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. They were intercepted by the Russian Navy. The details are disputed. The three Ukrainian vessels were captured.Ukraine has reacted angrily. President Petro Poroshenko persuaded the Rada (parliament) to pass m...

Trade surplus with the U.S. grew
CHINA · Report · 27 Nov 2018

Growth in October was stable, but slower. Industrial output was up 5.9% y/y, up only 0.1 pps from September. Investment was up 8% y/y, having risen for three consecutive months, and up 5 pps from July. State investment has accelerated, to counteract other negative growth factors. Retail sales ...

Martial law enacted
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Nov 2018

Yesterday parliament enacted martial law for 10 regions for 30 days starting from November 28. MPs harshly reacted to the Presidents’ proposal to enact martial law for the whole territory and for 60 days, suspecting that Petro Poroshenko might use military regime for his political needs. Consensu...

Q3 fiscal results: a sign of things to come
PANAMA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

The Fiscal Responsibility Law was amended to allow the NFPS to raise the ceiling of the net deficit to 2% of GDP at the end of 2018, up from 1% set in the previous version. The results through September suggest that even the new ceiling will be difficult to attain. The fiscal balance of the NFPS ...

Politics: Centralized/militarized security approach
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2018

President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s newly unveiled National Peace and Security Plan 2018-2024 is painfully short on details, especially when it comes to public security, but at least provides some clues as to the government’s priorities for the next six years. It simply assumes that ...

Risks for the next government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Wednesday, November 28, is the deadline for President Temer to sanction or veto the salary increase for Supreme Court ministers. The fiscal impact in 2019 could reach R$ 4.1 billion. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) may conclude the selection of his cabinet team. On Friday, November 30, IBGE ...

Russia tries to encourage auto manufacturing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2018

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said last week that he wishes to see equal access to state subventions for all motor manufacturing. Kozak proposed phasing out industrial assembly agreements and replacing them with special investment contracts (SPIKs). Kozak said he wished to see draft legislat...

Economics: Transition pros and (mostly) cons
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2018 · 1 response

With only one week left before the next government takes office, we have already experienced one of the most active intergovernmental transition periods in the country’s history, judging by the intensity and impact of the decisions, proposals and precipitous actions of President-elect López Obrad...

COSTA RICA: Green light from Constitutional Court
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

​On Friday, November 23rd, the Constitutional Court (“Sala IV”) gave green light to the fiscal reform package with a unanimous 7-0 vote. The decision came after a public service workers general strike and more than one-year discussions on the project. It also came after the Supreme Court indica...

Changes in the international economy and reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Until the start of this year, the international economy was favorable to the execution of economic policy in emerging countries. The global economy was marked by “synchronized growth” between mature and emerging countries, and there was a general belief that interest rates in developed countries ...

We expect a rate hike today, against market expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Nov 2018

We expect a rate hike today, against the overwhelming consensus expecting a rate-hold decision. A rate hike will be supported by inflation entrenchment, fairly steady growth, a tight labor market/wage pressure and recent shekel depreciation. Although the MPC may decide to wait for the new Governo...

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