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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A perverse improvement in fundamentals
TURKEY · Report · 25 Nov 2018

The title for this week's report refers to perceptions of improved political stability as well as of economic fundamentals – of a perverse kind -- because especially the latter hugely worry us in the medium-term, but could do wonders for investors in the very short-term. As President Erdogan a...

Moldova may lose EU aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2018

Last week the European Parliament voted to scrap financial support to Moldova. However, the decision is not final. The EU suspects that Moldovan politicians and bureaucrats 'disappeared' USD 1 Billion in 2015. The EU thinks that Moldova is not going anything serious about embezzlement and tax eva...

Moody's kept Baa3/Stable rating for Hungary unchanged yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2018

Moody's failed to improve the government's Baa3/Stable rating on the occasion of this year's last revision date for any major rating agency yesterday. Analysts typically did not expect an upgrade, but a number of them expected an improvement of the rating outlook to positive, just as it happened ...

Slow Ukrainian economic growth
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2018

The Ukrainian State Statistical Service declared that GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018 was 2.8%. This may seem impressive but it is lower than for the previous two quarters. Ukraine's budget is predicated on growth of at least 3%. The World Bank predicts that Ukrainian growth will slow ev...

CIS essential business briefing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2018

* Russian tensions with Atlantic nations increase, but so do defense sales to Asia * Ukraine geographical and religious splits deepen, while IMF program to be reaffirmed * Georgian presidential elections show weakness for Georgian Dream

Oil price dispute between Russia and Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2018

Russia and Belarus are not making progress in their negotiation over oil prices. The Belarussian Ambassador to Russia has said so publicly. Belarus gets most of her energy from Russia. Energy for industrial use is a sore point for Belarus. The Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan ...

The Reserve Bank hikes the rate to contain inflationary expectations.
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Nov 2018

In its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2018, the South African Reserve Bank decided to increase the repurchase (repo) rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.75%, effective from 23 November 2018. This moves the bank lending (prime) rate to 10.25% from 10%. The SARB last made a cha...

Rising fiscal stimulus and support for the private sector
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Nov 2018

To understand how the Chinese banking system is coping with the economic downturn, we spoke to 15 banks in 10 cities. Despite concerns about expansion of debt, our November 2018 survey of fifteen banks shows that banks are lending for infrastructure projects in a clear bid to stimulate the econo...

Good, not great
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 23 Nov 2018

Local moods have soured over the past several months on strong external headwinds, i.e., the triple whammy of US monetary tightening, surging oil prices and an escalating US-China trade war, and a collection of weaker economic data, including lower GDP growth and higher inflation. Economic perfo...

Budget 2019 approved: Expect the IMF wire
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2018

In 6:01 AM Kyiv time the parliament approved spending plan 2019. The authorities were in rush (probably under pressure of some deadline) and spent the whole night juggling with spending numbers. Eventually they have approved budget with the key figures – deficit, general revenues and spending – p...

Tajik dam starts to generate electricity.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2018 · 1 response

The Rogun Dam in Tajikistan has started to generate electricity. The first segment of the dam has been completed. The rest will take a projected 10 years. This is a major step for the poorest country in the former USSR.Tajikistan's neighbor Uzbekistan had lobbied hard against the dam since it wil...

Macroeconomic review and perspectives 1994-2018
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 21 Nov 2018

The South African economy benefited from past policies designed to foster economic stability, but more recently it is suffering from structural blockages hindering competitiveness, corruption stemming from the Zuma Administration, and other political economy challenges. • The South African eco...

Credit stress in the non-financial firms
INDIA · Report · 20 Nov 2018 · 1 response

We utilize firm data to identify the set of large stressed non-financial firms. We measure the size of balance sheet, borrowing and bank borrowing in these firms relative to the overall non-financial corporate sector. About 60% of the debt outstanding – by banks or by others – is in stressed firm...

Economics: Positive results for EPN’s public finance handling
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2018

As we near the end of the six-year administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto, we can draw a generally favorable balance sheet of its handling of government finances. His government grew tax revenues consistently between the time it took office at the end of 2012 until 2016, including 27.4% g...

Politics: The transition and the next power elite
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2018

The prolonged transition period is about to conclude, and with it an unprecedented period characterized by both President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his allies in Congress taking precipitous and premature decisions and actions, initial signs of strains and conflicts within the incoming...

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