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Inflation surpassed the target level in June, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jul 2018

CPI-inflation rose further to 3.1% yoy in June, from 2.8% yoy in May. This was exactly the number we predicted and also fell in line with market expectation (Portfolio.hu's poll averaged at 3.2%). There was certainly no great magic in making that short-term forecast: the monthly increase in fuel ...

The waning industrial output in the second quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2018

The truckers’ strike undermined industrial output in May, and when all the numbers are known, gross industrial production in the second quarter should also show a decline. Although not enough information is yet available about the service sector, which has large weight in GDP, preventing assessin...

Hyperinflation with a life of its own
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2018

We revised up our monthly inflation estimate for June to 127 percent, from 103 percent in our previous report and our July forecast to 116 percent (from 107 percent). Inflation will accelerate further in August to 148 percent owing to seasonal factors. Inflation for the first eight months will re...

​All the president’s men?This is all?
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2018

President Erdogan’s first Cabinet decidedly underwhelmed expectations, as none of the star names from the private sector joined it, while last vestiges of conventional economic thought were purged. The appointment his son-in-law Mr. Berat Albayrak to the newly-formed powerful Ministry of Treasury...

The Duke, the King and Huck Finn
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Jul 2018

In the one thousand miles trip down the Mississippi river, Huckleberry Finn met two funny characters who went by the nobility titles of the king and the duke. They were actors interpreting a show in the towns across the river, and forced Huck to play along, and to dispense them with royalty etiqu...

Where will the Centrao go and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2018

With the vote on the LDO scheduled for Wednesday, July 11, Congress enters its mid-year recess. The Lower House should vote on the provisional measure that establishes the minimum pricing policy for cargo transportation, a demand from truckers. Most parties will set the date for their party conve...

Politics: The challenge AMLO's sweep poses
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jul 2018

Andrés Manuel López Obrador had been expected for some weeks to win the presidential contest this month, but how do we explain his sweep, as he carried all but one state, and racked up the largest margin of victory since Miguel de la Madrid’s election in 1982? Or the electoral collapse of two of ...

Economics: Varying shades of AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jul 2018

A review of the economic policy proposals that have been raised by the virtual president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador is a study in contrast between the populist politician most people became familiar with in past years, and the more accommodating and economically orthodox figure that has sh...

HEADS UP: Babacan and Simsek rumors
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2018

I don't trade in rumors, but the sudden two-way moves in dollar/TL require some explaining.In early hours of the day rumors spreading from different sources, perceived as credible claimed Simsek, and even Ali Babacan have been appointed to the Cabinet. Murat Cetinkaya will be asked to resign. In ...

Mexico Elections 2018 - Change and the prospects ahead conference call replay
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jul 2018

​In the wake of the uncertainty generated by the election of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as president of Mexico, GlobalSource Partners hosted a conference call featuring our Mexico City-based local partners Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes, "Elections 2018 - Change and the prospects ahead"....

We expect the BoI policy rate forecast to remain 0.5% at end-19
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Jul 2018

Wage growth moderated in April, and the number of new workers has slowed considerably, both factors supportive of moderate inflationary pressure. The BoI policy rate forecast (with today’s rate decision) is likely to remain dovish, with the first rate hike pushed out to Q119, with one more hike i...

The presidential epoch about to begin
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jul 2018

President Erdogan will unveil his Cabinet on Monday night at 9:30 pm. He hinted that it may contain mostly technocrats. Ankara’s point men with markets and creditors, Messrs. Simsek and Agbal may not be part of the new team. The new personnel will be probably selected on their “closeness” to the ...

Speculation on the weak forint may be over for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2018

With EURHUF falling back below 324 in the last three days, the latest wave of speculation on the weak forint seems to be largely over. It may be time to take stock, draw some lessons and to make some new guesses.First, it seems what ended the last two months' trend of HUF weakness was ended by a ...

Political party law remains deadlocked
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Jul 2018

Data available through May indicates that growth has been higher than expected, even compared to optimistic official forecasts. In May, real GDP growth (measured by the IMAE) reached 6.4% compared to May 2017, and between January and May, growth reached 6.6%. Construction stands out among economi...

Inflation jumps anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2018

June inflation rate rose sharply to 5.2%, exceeding the high-end of the BSP’s forecast range (4.3% to 5.1%) for the month as well as the median analysts’ forecast (4.7%). Month-on-month inflation, which had showed signs of decelerating in April and May, jumped by 0.6% in June. Apart from seasonal...

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