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No base rate change is likely at Tuesday's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025

The Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting on Tuesday, June 24. So far this year. all decisions, and indeed all votes within the Council, were for holding the base rate at 6.5%. Last time, on May 27, the Council concluded that neither domestic inflation, nor external cond...

Too many tipping points
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

Turkey and the entire region are at a tipping point. As regards the latter, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities opened up several alternative universes, in some of which the world may be struck with an oil shock reminiscent of the 1970s, or a regional war, where Turkey may be force...

GULF WEEKLY: Trump mulls entering war, UAE FDI remains strong, S&P rates UAE, Oman’s GDP picks up in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jun 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel has air superiority, and Iran’s medium-range missiles are nearly exhausted. * Trump is considering joining the war to bomb the hardened Fordow nuclear site. * The direct impact on the GCC and hydrocarbons remains l...

Kazakhstan macro: the economy reportedly accelerates, prompting forecast upgrades
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2025

The recently published macroeconomic statistics suggest that the Kazakh economy continued to expand steadily in 5M25, and its rate of growth has reportedly accelerated. One cannot rule out that a weaker tenge helped as the USD/KZT has traded above the 500 mark for several months. This has not onl...

Promises, Promises
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2025

In the end, the Copom opted for a final adjustment to the Selic target rate, raising it from 14.75% to 15.00% per year—an outcome that, while not exactly surprising, was still different from what most analysts (ourselves included) had expected. That said, a significant minority—perhaps one-third ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: South Caucasus—Winners and losers from the Iran-Israel conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2025

Two of the three South Caucasian nations directly border Iran, and their initial reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict says a lot about their relative positions vis-a-vis the regional battle. While Armenia categorically condemned the "one-sided attack on Iran", Azerbaijan opted for a restrained rh...

MPC: Not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025

The CBRT/MPC maintained the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) as well as the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 46%, 49% and 44.5%, respectively, as expected. The content of the statement was little changed as well (link here and here to the new and old statements, respectively). The CBRT ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025

Military escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher by almost 10%. As it is next to impossible to predict the duration of the “hot stage” of the conflict forecasting prices on the energy markets is uneasy. However, it is reasonable to assume that oil prices won’t fall below $60 pe...

Israel’s economy at war: macro scenario amid the war with Iran
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jun 2025

A conflict lasting several weeks is expected to cause a moderate contraction in GDP in Q2 and Q3 2025. Annual growth is projected to slow to just 0.3%. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 7% of GDP, driven by surging defense spending and a drop in tax revenues—pushing the debt-to-GDP rati...

Senator Alcolumbre read the request to establish a CPMI into the INSS scandal, Congress overturned a presidential veto that would have increased taxes, and the Central Bank will announce the Selic
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2025

The President of Congress, Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), has read the request to establish a Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) into the INSS and authorized the formation of the panel. Yesterday, during a joint congressional session, lawmakers also voted on presidential vetoes....

Are financial markets in Israel predicting a near end to the war?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange extended its gains today, following Sunday’s 5.1% surge, with the TA-90 Index rising a further 0.82%. The advance came as Israeli military operations in Iran continued to progress, while rocket fire from Iran appeared to subside. Investor sentiment was further lifted b...

Central Bank increases liquidity to stimulate the economy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025

Yesterday, the Monetary Board authorized the Central Bank to implement a liquidity provision program amounting to DOP 81 billion, aimed at promoting the revitalization of economic activity amid high global uncertainty, upward pressure on interest rates, and slower growth in credit to the private ...

Pressure on prices and the Bolívar
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2025

We have revised down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts on the assumption that, starting in June 2025, the government will maintain a monthly increase of 9–11 percent in the official exchange rate in an effort to ease inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the 2025–2026 outlook remains one ...

Carpe diem, President Noboa!
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2025

Depending on the source, Ecuador’s GDP growth for 2025 is placed between 1.5% and 1.8% (Central Bank), with an average of 1.7% (IMF). We lean towards the 1.5% y/y change that, albeit a significant recovery from the negative 2% of 2024, is still well below the vigorous economic dynamics the countr...

The House approved the urgent status of the legislative decree on the IOF, Congress is expected to analyze presidential vetoes, and the Copom meetings will begin today to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2025

As expected, the Lower House approved the urgent status for the legislative decree bill that overrides President Lula’s decree on the IOF tax. The margin was wide: 346 to 97. A session of the National Congress is scheduled for today. More than 60 presidential vetoes are pending review, some datin...

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