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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 2
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
As murky as possible
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2024
Recent events seem to be leading the country towards a variant of the 2018 scenario in which the government, in poor shape to win any elections—even low-quality ones—is bent on ensuring that the opposition won’t come together, the Unitary Platform will repudiate the elections, a multitude of non-...
Politics: Pro-Xóchitl civic groups are revitalized by the latest pro-democracy protest with the general election campaign start just days away
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response
Hundreds of thousands of citizens took to the streets of Mexico City and well over a over a hundred other cities here and abroad on February 18 to protest against AMLO’s constitutional reform proposals designed to nullify Mexican democracy and keep the governing Morena party in power. It was the ...
An ambitious agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024
The government may submit a new MP and bill on payroll tax relief to Congress. Arthur Lira discusses with party leaders the presidencies of the Permanent Committees of the House. In the STF, the highlight is the adjudication of the INSS lifetime review. The IBGE publishes the 2023 GDP this week. ...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024
OVERVIEW Despite the Carnival holiday, the political tension has remained high in February, involving decisions by Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli; the crisis in the relations with Israel provoked by Lula; and the operation by the Federal Police to investigate the scope and responsibility f...
Economics: The outlook remains mixed judging by the latest data, with continuing challenges in manufacturing and domestic goods consumption
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024
Indicators released over the past month once again showed growth, but the latest GDP data confirmed that although the Mexican economy continues to expand, it decelerated in the last quarter and especially during December. Moreover, three quarters of manufacturing branches are contracting, and eve...
Analysts are divided on the rate-cutting prospects at tomorrow's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2024
The stake for tomorrow's regular monthly rate-setting meeting is whether the Council opts for the standard 75 bps reduction of the currently 10% base rate, or it increases the speed slightly, to a 100 bps cut this time. Honestly, the difference is not that big from the point of view of long-term ...
The BOI prefers to be cautious, but signals further loosening ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Feb 2024
The Bank of Israel decided to err on the side of caution today and kept rates stable at 4.5%. Some of the same phrases in the announcement were similar to those in the previous rate decision (when rates were cut by 0.25%): “There is a great amount of uncertainty with regard to the expected severi...
Parliament ratified Sweden's NATO accession today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2024
The National Assembly approved Swedish NATO membership with 188 yes and 6 no votes earlier today. As Hungary was the last member state to vote on the issue, Sweden is officially a member of NATO from now on. Previously, Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson paid a visit to Budapest three days ag...
Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth beat expectations last year but is likely to decelerate in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Feb 2024
The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its preliminary GDP numbers on the production side for 2023. The end-use statistics will be published at a later date. It could well be the case that at some point the Bureau may somehow modify the quarterly GDP data as the annual figure i...
The risk of non-renewal increases
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response
With the political climate heating up, the risk that General License 44 (GL 44) may not be renewed next April 18 is heightening. It’s premature to try to guess how the ongoing turmoil will play out. Things can change between now and April 18; license renewal can still be achieved. A scenario ...
Bolsonaro’s demonstration was impressive, Lira should meet with party leaders this week to discuss the presidencies of the House committees, and the 2023 GDP result will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024
Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) showed that he still has significant political capital. Whomever he decides to support in the upcoming elections is likely to receive a high number of votes. While the demonstration is unlikely to change his legal status, he remains Lula's main antagonist. Thi...
CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 8.7% in 2023, Azerbaijan's growth finally accelerates in Jan, Georgia suffers large drop in Jan exports, Uzbekistan modernizes monetary transmission mechanism
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response
We comment on the key recent macro events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: 2023 posts 8.7 percent GDP growth Armenia: 2023 foreign trade deficit widens Armenia: REER inches down in Dec, but still runs in overvaluation mode Armenia: CB publishes minutes from Jan 30th rates meeting ...
A rate cut today appears likely
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Feb 2024
1. We expect a rate cut today on the back of low inflation, a strong shekel and only a partial recovery in activity. 2. Economic indicators reflect an improvement in growth, while the lack of Palestinian workers and the large number of evacuees are slowing growth. 3. The supply/demand dynam...
Rate cut today (Monday) appears likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Feb 2024
A rate cut today is our base forecast: After some hesitation last week, we expect a cut today. Consensus is divided according to Bloomberg (11 expect a rate cut, 6 expect hold). A rate cut is supported by low and decelerating inflation, a strong shekel and only a partial recovery in economic grow...
More on local elections and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2024
With 5 weeks left to the polling day, the municipal election race is heating up, already witnessing trend reversals. Poll results show CHP incumbents ahead in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. President Erdogan has a decisive propaganda advantage on opposition rivals, but he has two significant weaknes...