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GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits recorded, Kuwait’s Assembly is dissolved, Egypt plans for Rafah refugees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The new OPEC+ quotas were implemented in Jan (UAE +1% m/m, Saudi flat, Kuwait & Oman -5%). * Egypt is building a compound for refugees as Israel prepares for an assault on Rafah, despite US concerns and mediation efforts; ...

Dancing on the edge of an abyss
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Feb 2024

The last few months have been far from enjoyable. The anxious anticipation of decisions from the West regarding military supplies, coupled with persistent efforts by Russian friends to disrupt the process, paints a bleak picture. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-...

January saw the second biggest monthly peso depreciation in 17 years
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Feb 2024

The peso depreciated by a powerful 2.36% in January. With the exception of July 2020, this was the highest monthly rate of depreciation since 2007. While there is a seasonal element, since January has frequently shown strong monthly exchange rate depreciation, there may also be factors associated...

Another downside inflation print; a rate cut is on the table
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Feb 2024

1. Inflation in January (0.0% m/m, 2.6% y/y, down from 3.0%) was at the low end of expectations; presently, we give a rate cut at the upcoming meeting a 55% probability. 2. Economic indicators were generally positive last week. 3. The trade deficit declined sharply in January as exports ha...

The Legislature will deal with issues in its relationship with the Executive Office, Flavio Dino takes a seat on the STF, and Bolsonaro calls for a demonstration on February 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2024

Next week, Congress returns to work at full pace and has issues to resolve with the Executive Office. Payroll tax relief, the Perse funding program for the events sector, and budget cuts are among the main sources of dissatisfaction in the relationship between the Legislature and the Executive Of...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Economic cycle to serve the new Georgian government well in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Feb 2024

As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...

Economic growth moderates in January
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an overall economic activity) grew by 4.3% y-o-y, i.e., down from about 5.0% in the previous months. Even though this indicator was affected by a high base effect (faster growth in January 2023), there a...

A rate cut this month cannot be ruled out
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Feb 2024

Another low CPI print in January Inflation in January was stable (0.0% m/m) and slowed to 2.6% y/y from 3.0% in December. This index came in at the low end of expectations (0.0%-0.1%). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) slowed to 2.4% y/y from 2.7%. Prices of core goods t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2024

Investors are waiting for a new sanctions package - to be announced on Feb 24. There are no indications that it will target the financial sector, but this scenario cannot be ruled out. The ruble weakened in anticipation of this event but remains more or less stable. Financial markets, in general,...

The South African economy on shaky ground beyond the post-pandemic recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Feb 2024

• Bonds: The South African bond market continues to be a reflection of the levels of confidence in both the country itself and as a member of the emerging markets group. At the same time, South Africa’s own homegrown economic weaknesses have been responsible for the bulk of the vulnerability in t...

Disinflation Continues
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2024

In January, inflation slowed down for the fourth month in a row to 1.7 percent from 3.0 percent in December. Had it not been for increases in services—chiefly recreation and basic services—inflation would have come in lower still. Food prices, with their weight of nearly 50 percent in our basket,...

Bolsonaro has called for a demonstration on February 25 that he hopes will establish him as a significant electoral player, and his supporters seem to be organizing themselves to attend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2024

President Jair Bolsonaro is calling for a demonstration on February 25 so that he can defend himself against accusations of an attempted coup d'état. He believes this would be a demonstration in defense of the democratic rule of law. It appears that his supporters are organizing themselves to att...

Balancing the books, shifting the landscape: the NFPS deficit and Martinelli's disqualification
PANAMA · Report · 15 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Despite having to resort to accounting artifices, the government upheld the fiscal ceiling, as highlighted by credit rating agencies and analysts. In 2022, the Non-Financial Public Sector deficit was 3.98% (when the legal limit was 4.0%), and in 2023, it fell below the required 3.0%. In the last ...

Russian macro 2024: Adjusting to new realities may be challenging as realities change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 14 Feb 2024

It turned out that Russia’s 2023 economic growth looked decent, as its nominal GDP exceeded R171 trln and grew by 3.6% in real terms according to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates. Eventually, after a series of revisions, the nominal figure may be even higher—as has happened repeatedly in the past....

Russia issues arrest warrant for Estonian Prime Minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2024

On February 13 this unprecedented move was made against Kaja Kallas. Kallas advocated for the removal of a Soviet monument in Estonia. Estonia is a former Soviet republic and has a significant Russian minority. It is an EU and NATO member and has been vociferous in support of Ukraine.  The arrest...

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