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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 7
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Nov 4
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Nov 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Nov 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The risk of delay in Tax Reform increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024
The Senate is holding a concentrated voting effort this week to advance discussions on payroll tax relief. The deadline given by the Supreme Federal Court on this issue is September 11. The Tax Reform regulation bill, which creates the CBS and IBS taxes, should begin analysis in the Senate. Today...
Russian macro: Central Bank gets more hawkish amid economy's overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024
In a recent report we mentioned that in 1H24, as Rosstat reported, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y. In June alone it was up by a mere 2.5% y-o-y, and as a result, basic sector output grew by 4.8% y-o-y in 2Q24. E...
Economics: July indicators confirm further slowdown as inflation spikes and public finances deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2024
The preliminary estimate of 2QGDP showed the least pronounced increase in 13 quarters, just shy of 2.0%. The secondary sector provided only a little help by managing to grow half a percentage point as manufacturing numbers continued to reflect the softening of US demand for Mexican-made goods, ex...
Today is the deadline to choose candidates for the upcoming municipal elections, the Senate will hold a concentrated voting effort this week, and CGU and STN employees go on strike tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2024
The deadline for holding party conventions to choose candidates and form coalitions for the October elections ends today (August 5). According to electoral legislation, the registration deadline is August 15. Due to the municipal elections, Congress will operate at a slower pace. The Senate will ...
Uptick likely transitory, but road ahead remains very challenging
TURKEY · Report · 05 Aug 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.2% in July, m/m, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate dropping sharply by about 10 pps, as expected, to 61.8% from 71.6% in June, thanks to base effects. Producer prices rose by 1.9%, with the 12-month PPI-inflation also falling visibly to 41.4% from...
Elevated risk of escalation pushes Israel’s risk premium higher
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Aug 2024
1. The elevated risk of an imminent attack on Israel on several fronts continues to weigh on markets. 2. S&P put out a warning regarding the increased downside risks to the economy and fiscal policy. 3. Wage growth (6% annual) is above that required to keep inflation within the target range...
The Philippine Maharlika Investment Fund: More delays?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Aug 2024
A little over a year after Republic Act (RA) No. 11954 or the Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) Act was signed into law on July 18, 2023, the Philippines has yet to witness the MIF engaged in its first investment activity. The MIF, the country’s first version of a sovereign wealth fund, was contemp...
Israel's risk premium spikes on escalation risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Aug 2024
Geopolitics: Tension remain very high, following two assassinations (Haniyeh, Hamas leader in Teheran and Shukr, senior Hezbollah commander, in Beirut). Israel took credit for the killing of the Hamas leader. Iran and its proxies have vowed to retaliate. The scope or timing of this retaliation is...
Russia nuclear drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2024
On August 1 Russian soldiers practiced placing dummy warheads on launchers. Russian state media was keen to broadcast Iskander M operational tactical missile systems performing the third stage of the drills. The Iskander M is for short-range nuclear and conventional missiles. The Kremlin said tha...
Arrests for fraud in the Russian Army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2024
On August 2 Sergei Sukhov, the former head of construction for the Central Military district, was taken into custody. Sukhov was a subordinate of the former Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov who is also in custody. There have already been arrests as part of the investigation. The organization being ...
Russian border guards leave Armenian airport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2024
On July 31 the last of them left Yerevan Airport. In early 2024 Armenia insisted that the Russian border guards be withdrawn. This is due to souring relations between the two former Soviet republics. Moscow has been frank that Armenia's demand has damaged relations. Armenia is a member of Collect...
Essential CIS Politics: August 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Aug 2024
* Russia hosted the Indian and Hungarian PMs. * The major prisoner swap between Russia and West includes a journalist. * Ukraine is willing to negotiate with Russia while Russia occupies East Ukraine. * Kazakhstan hosted the Chinese President for a state visit and the Shang...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops to six-month low despite conflict risks, Saudi Arabia’s deficit rises but so does non-oil GDP growth, Oman plans LNG expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Aug 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped to a six-month low of $77 as demand fears outstrip conflict risks. * There was momentum in GCC FTA talks, including with Turkey, the UK and Indonesia. The UAE also advanced more CEPAs. * The Saudi Q2 d...
Facts and implications around Ukraine sanctioning Lukoil are slowly getting clearer, despite a strong element of a 'fog of war'
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Aug 2024
This has become a rather complicated story by now. In our next monthly report, due around mid-August, we are planning to give a more detailed rundown. Here, we would focus only on the main points. 1. It is difficult to establish even the basic facts, not even mentioning the reasons and the likely...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Azerbaijan gets a well-deserved IG status
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Aug 2024
In some of our recent writings (from last year), we conjectured that Azerbaijan was on pace to re-attaining IG status as early as within the next 3 years. Fitch has been the fist of the rating agencies to do that by assigning the country an IG rating on Jul 26th. Not unexpectedly, Fitch justified...