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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Essential CIS Politics: January 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jan 2024

* Putin stated he is running for re-election against 15 other candidates. * Ukraine is receiving less and less aid from its allies, which jeopardizes its war effort. * The EU began accession talks with Ukraine, but Hungary vetoed EU aid. * A major strike by oil logistics wo...

Rates reduced as inflation moderates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jan 2024

Rates reduced as inflation moderates The BOI cut rates by 0.25% to 4.5% due to the inflation deceleration (which is expected to continue into Q124) as well as lower inflation expectations. This trend (supported by shekel appreciation) effectively raises real rates and allows for lower rates, desp...

Armenia and Azerbaijan discuss peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2024

On December 26 the Prime Minister of Armenia met the Azeri President in St Petersburg. It was at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit. Both countries are members of the CIS along with other former Soviet countries. Baku and Yerevan have exchanged 7 draft agreements on permanent pea...

2024 will begin without changes in the monetary policy interest rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Dec 2023

The monetary policy interest rate will remain at 7.00% annually in the month of January 2024, while the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) will continue at 7.50% annually and the interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) will remain at 5.50% annually. The decision wa...

Major Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2023

In the early hours of December 29 Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Dnipro, Kharkiv and other cities were hit by drones and missiles. Ukraine claimed the attacks targeted infrastructure and not military positions. They say a maternity hospital was hit. Cruise, hypersonic and ballistic missiles were fired. At l...

Ukraine claims to have sunk Russian warship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

On December 27 Kyiv said the landing ship Novocherkassk was sunk by Ukrainian jets in the Russian port of Feodosia. Russia stated that the ship was damaged but did not state there were any casualties. A Russian Telegram channel said there were 77 sailors aboard the ship at the time of the attack....

Maduro's New Year's resolutions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Dec 2023

On the surface, Nicolás Maduro is closing 2023 with a positive balance. He overcame challenging situations and looks ready to face 2024 with better control of the playing field. But next year, he must achieve something his political skill does not guarantee: to enthuse Venezuelans to obtain a cre...

An improving trade balance with China
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Dec 2023

For many years, China ranked first in trade with Indonesia compared to Indonesia's trade with the rest of the world. Therefore, anything that happened in China might affect Indonesia. That is why it is interesting to watch the trade balance between Indonesia and China at a time when there has bee...

Post-COVID fatigue
CHILE · Report · 28 Dec 2023 · 1 response

The latest Central Bank Monetary Policy Report offers a surprisingly positive outlook for economic activity. But, in our view, activity remains stagnant. The only good news comes from the construction sector, which appears to be at a potential turning point, after hitting historical lows. The ind...

Managing debt will be a major issue for Beijing in 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Dec 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * The problem of what to do with the debt will probably dominate economic policy-making discussions in Beijing in 2024. As of now, there seems to be a split between economists, who want to address the quality of economic activity, and non-economists,...

EU payments have started to flow to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023 · 1 response

When the EU Commission unblocked Hungary's access to €10.2bn of cohesion policy funds on December 13, the key question became whether they would actually start to pay out the affected funds according to the regular procedure or they would start postponing and delaying actual transfers, waiting fo...

Seven predictions for China in 2024
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Dec 2023

In this report, I give my sometimes “out-of-the box” predictions for China in 2024. These include views on US-China relations, the upcoming Taiwan elections and the importance of the US dollar to China.

Kazakhstan’s budgetary performance markedly improves in November amid a one-off effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

A few days ago, the country’s Ministry of Finance published detailed budgetary 11M23 statistics, and these data were not immune from surprises. Previously, we repeatedly broached these issues and mentioned that a weaker tenge was required to finance all the amended expenditures. Tax collection wa...

Japan giving air defense to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

On December 28 a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman fulminated against the decision, saying there will be repercussions. On December 22 Japan made the announcement to donate Patriot missiles to the US, which in turn allows the US to donate other Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Japanese law prohibi...

Economic growth steady in November
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

Rosstat reported that the economy was on the same track as in the previous months as the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for GDP covering about 60% of the national economy) grew by 5.1% y-o-y - both in November and 11M23. The industrial output grew by 3.6% y-o-y in 11M23 only as...

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