GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Economic activity continued its roller coaster pattern in 2024, alternating between months of y/y growth below 5% and months above. Cumulative y/y growth remained at 5.1% on average from June to October. In November both headline inflation (3.18% y/y) and core inflation (3.47% y/y) remained wi...

Unless Gandalf casts a spell, peace prospects look dim

UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Two key questions are on the agenda: what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose as a peace deal, and what the response will be if the proposed solution sacrifices Ukraine’s sovereignty. Any plan requiring Ukraine to recognize Russian-occupied territories or to compromise its sovereignty ...

Economics: 3Q and October employment numbers reveal deep downturn

MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Employment numbers at the third quarter and October of this year continue reflecting the downturn that began in the second quarter, in line with the economic growth posted in the same period. Wages have experienced a very slight downturn, also since the second quarter, but continue to grow at rel...

The House may vote on the Tax Reform regulation bill today, the rapporteur of the fiscal package may submit his report on the bill, and the 2025 Budget may be put to a vote by the end of the week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Yesterday, the Lower House concluded discussions on the regulation of Tax Reform. The vote is scheduled for today. Once approved, the text will proceed to presidential sanction. Today, Dep. Isnaldo Bulhões (MDB-AL), rapporteur for PL No. 4,614/24, may present his report on the text. According to ...

Strong fundamentals (CA surplus and FDI) remain shekel supportive

ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2024

The current account improved in the 3rd quarter of 2024 reaching 5.5bn USD (SA) from 4.9bn in the previous quarter and 5.6bn in the 1st quarter. The net trade/service balance increased to 5.0bn from 4.2bn. Foreign direct investments in Israel reached 5.6bn in Q3 from 6.3bn in Q2. Portfolio invest...

What to Expect from the Monetary Policy Meeting

CHILE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024 · 1 response

For the Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM), I remain undecided regarding the decision (50/50 between -25pb and no cut). Arguments in favor of a 25bp cut: Macroeconomic analysis indicates that the Central Bank has plenty of room to continue reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM). Market expectations a...

Russian macro: GDP growth, external balance stable as settlements in national currencies gain importance

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Rosstat recently provided additional color to its 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate (3.1% y-o-y) published earlier, and the sectoral GDP production growth rates are now available. The 9M24 GDP increase was more impressive (4.1% y-o-y) than in 3Q24 alone. Rosstat also revealed that the seasonally adj...

Final week of congressional activity and related issues

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

The final week of congressional activity is packed with important issues: the fiscal adjustment package, Tax Reform, the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), and the 2025 Budget. The Central Bank will release the minutes from the latest Copom meeting, during which the committee decided to increase the ba...

Politics: Opposition parties elect new leaderships in bid to reverse falling fortunes

MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Mexico’s opposition parties are in serious trouble on all levels following their disastrous performance in the June national elections. All are attempting to come to grips with their rejection by broad sections of the population –they only have the support of 15% of the electorate- promising int...

Bad moon rising

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Our fears, expressed in the September Quarterly Outlook, regarding the overheating of the economy, have materialized. Today, there are more signs that the economy is operating above its potential—a phenomenon acknowledged by the Central Bank itself. It revised its estimates of the output gap f...

Heavy policy agenda early this week

HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024

Here is a brief inventory: 1. The Finance Ministry will cease to exist on January 1, 2025. It will be merged into the Economy Ministry. The related draft law is in parliament now. No surprise at all, this has been long known to the public, together with the essentially certain consequence that mi...

What happened in the December Work Conference?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - The December Central Economic Work Conference ended with a series of promises but was short on details. In itself that is not a surprise, as the conference rarely sets detailed policy, and mostly discusses growth targets and the direction of polic...

Protests rock Georgia amid institutional crisis

CIS POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

- Georgians continue protesting two weeks since the PM announced the suspension of EU accession negotiations until 2028. - The new president was elected under the new system, unrecognized by the previous president and the political opposition. - As the crisis continues and the EU cuts ties, ...

Rule of (martial) law

VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2024

En route to Maduro’s inauguration on 10 January 2025, the government is preparing for possible violence by passing draconian laws that legalize repression and virtually eliminate all space for public protest. It’s setting up permanent martial law. A recent exchange of moderating gestures betwe...

Downside inflation surprise but rental prices accelerate

ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2024

1. November’s downward inflation surprise is expected to increase the likelihood of a first rate hike in early Q2 2025 (or possibly end-Q1 2025). 2. Inflation in 2025 will be mostly due to the government's fiscal adjustments, while easing supply constraints and a strong shekel will push inflat...