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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
PKK raid, Istanbul race, falling reserves
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2024
AKP nominated former Environmental and Urban Affairs Minister Murat Kurum to challenge Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who seems significantly ahead in early poll data. Yet, Erdogan’s massive propaganda advantage and the strategies of pro-Kurdish party DEM may yet result in surprises. Meanwhile, g...
Markets will be following fiscal adjustments closely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2024
The fiscal deficit reached 4.2% GDP in 2023. Expenditures increased by 14.2% (mostly in Q4 due to the war) and revenues declined by 6.4%. The deficit is expected to reach 5.7% in 2024 and possibly higher. Fiscal financing will be diverse, both abroad and domestic, but will require large gross dom...
Majority of Filipinos rate inflation as topmost concern
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024
It is not surprising that majority of Filipinos continued to express concerns over the issue of inflation. While inflation descended to only 3.9% in December 2023, already within the official target of 2-4%, the overall 2023 average inflation reached 6.0% (2018=100), the highest since 2008 when i...
State of war
ECUADOR · Report · 12 Jan 2024
President Noboa sent last night the third urgent economic bill, which has one purpose only: to raise the VAT from 12% to 15%. The rationale for the decision is the need to raise financing for expenditures associated with security and for the state of war dictated last Monday in response to nation...
Mixed feelings about the December CPI-inflation data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024
The headline rate of CPI-inflation for December was reported at -0.3% mom, 5.5% yoy this morning. Core inflation was much stronger, at 0.2% mom and 7.6% yoy. Non-fuel inflation, which we also think is an important indicator, was 0.1% mom, 6.4% yoy. The yoy headline rate dropped sharply, from 7.9%...
GULF WEEKLY: US strikes Houthis, Saudi issues $12bn in bonds, MBC soars after IPO, Qatar publishes development strategy
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jan 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rebounded to $80 following US strikes on Yemen, days after it fell over Saudi price cuts. * The Gulf is divided, with Bahrain backing the strikes but Saudi, Oman and Qatar expressing concerns. * Meanwhile, the...
UK Prime Minister in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024
On January 12 Sunak made the unannounced visit. Like most leaders, he crossed the border from Poland and travelled by train. Sunak announced an aid package of USD 3.2 billion for 2024. This is USD 250 million more than 2023. Bear in mind that with inflation this is a small increase on 2023. Briti...
Baltics donating to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024
On January 11 Lithuania announced aid for Ukraine including anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft systems, artillery and shells. On January 11 Zelensky also visited Latvia, where he met the president. Latvia also announced military aid to Ukraine. This comprises anti-tank systems, anti-aircraft system...
President Lula announced Lewandowski as Flávio Dino’s replacement, 21 working subgroups have been created to help regulate Tax Reform, and Brazil will send only a small delegation to the World Economic Forum, to be held in Davos next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jan 2024
President Lula confirmed in a speech at the Planalto Palace that former Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Ricardo Lewandowski will be the new Minister of Justice and Public Security. He is expected to take office on February 1. State finance secretariats have already established, within the sco...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Growth momentum still robust, if gradually moderating in 3Q23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jan 2024
With Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan the last CCA countries to report final 3Q23 GDP data, we now have a full picture to assess how economic activity has evolved over the first three quarters of 2023. Economic growth in the region has been steadily diminishing from the peak of 11.6 percent YoY in 2Q21 ...
Charting the economic course under President Milei: a 2024 projection
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 11 Jan 2024
In the brief span since December 10, President Milei's administration has unleashed a barrage of announcements and policy announcements that surpass the combined dynamism witnessed during the eight years of the Macri and Fernandez governments. This fervor signals Milei's commitment to transformat...
President Lula may announce Minister Flávio Dino’s replacement, Central Bank employees are on a 24-hour strike, and the government sent a bill to Congress to reformulate the bankruptcy law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2024
President Lula (PT) may announce today his final decision on who will replace Minister Flávio Dino (PSB) in the Ministry of Justice. Lula had a series of meetings with Ricardo Lewandowski, which suggests he is likely to be chosen for the position. On today's agenda, it is worth noting that Centra...
Fiscal deficit will expand into 2024
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jan 2024
Fiscal deficit reaches 4.2% GDP The fiscal deficit in 2023 reached 4.2% GDP as expenditures increased by 14.2% y/y and revenues declined by 6.4%. The fiscal deficit in December reached 33.8bn ILS (compared to 18.5bn last year) with 17.2bn additional spending due to the war. The deficit of 77bn IL...
Zelensky in Lithuania
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2024
On January 10 the Ukrainian President made an unannounced visit to Vilnius where he met his Lithuanian counterpart. Ukrainian accession to NATO and the EU were on the agenda. Lithuania is a member of both. It is also a former Soviet republic. Zelensky visited the country in 2023, as well. Zelensk...
Russian macro: Revised GDP stats hint the economy may accelerate in 2024 as its growth model evolves
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jan 2024
Rosstat reported that Russia's GDP grew by 3.0% y-o-y in 9M23, which looked better than one could have expected at the beginning of last year. In 3Q23, GDP increased by 5.5%, up from 4.9% in 2Q23. The nation’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 1Q23 (all numbers are y-o-y). At the same time Rosstat re...