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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Could inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jan 2024

1. Policy rates were cut to 4.5% due to moderating inflation and a strong shekel; fiscal concerns were secondary. 2. We revised our inflation forecast up to 2.8% in 2024. 3. Higher shipping costs, pent-up demand, and a rebound in housing rentals are likely to push inflation higher.

Retail sales was trying to climb out of the ditch with moderate success in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2024

Retail sales grew by 0.8% mom in November, the best figure seen since March 2022, according to this morning's report by KSH. On fix basis (Dec 2010 =100), the volume of turnover developed as follows: The encouraging increase in November must have been greatly supported by the 3.1% compensatory in...

Will inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

Rate cut on decelerating inflation Policy rate declined by 0.25% to 4.5% last Monday with the Bank of Israel noting that inflation has moderated significantly in recent months, the shekel has appreciated and other central banks are expected to loosen. The Governor noted that inflation y/y is expe...

New year, old agenda
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jan 2024

Our politics coverage starts with a preview of four major events that will define the course of Turkish politics. President Erdogan and nationalist ally Bahceli are likely to emerge victorious from end-March municipal polls, after which they will tackle the unfinished business of amending the con...

Japan offers to fund Ukraine air defense
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

On January 7 the Japanese Foreign Minister made a surprise visit to Kyiv. She said that Japan will donate another USD 37 million so Ukraine can afford drone detection systems. These are important in air defense. The Foreign Minister's press conference was held in an underground bomb shelter due t...

EU sanctions Russian diamonds
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2024

On January 3 the European Union announced an immediate ban on diamonds from the state-run Alrosa. Its CEO is also sanctioned, meaning his assets in the EU are frozen and he is unable to travel to the EU. Alrosa is the largest diamond mining company on the planet. The ban covers synthetic as well ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman and Sharjah budgets, Kuwait GDP after a 2-year hiatus, Kuwait PM nominated, Saudi cuts diesel subsidies
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. This report covers the two-week period from December 23, 2023. Headlines: * Brent crude recovers to $79 on worries about Libya protests and Gaza-related tensions. * As the Gaza war continued, Israel and the US assassinated militants in...

German delivers arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2024

On January 4 Ukraine announced that it has received a Skynex anti-aircraft system, missiles for Patriot air defense systems, ammunition for Leopard tanks, radars, drone, detectors, trucks, anti-aircraft guns and small arms and ammunition. Berlin said it will double military aid to Ukraine in 2024...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account improvement in late 2023 signals less external pressure in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Jan 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 3Q23 lends support to our view expressed in the previous CCA Weekly, in which we argued that the main deterioration of external positions in the region may be behind us. Improving CAs in 2022 were chiefly driven by copious net mone...

Ukraine struggles to recruit troops as draft proves controversial
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2024

In 2022 Ukraine had plenty of volunteers for its military. But the war shows no sign of ending in 2024, and tens of thousands of military deaths have meant that few men are volunteering. They are demoralized by the defeat of the counter-offensive. Russia has almost 4 times the population of Ukrai...

Finance Minister Contreras resigns
PERU · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 3 responses

This morning Finance Minister Contreras submitted his letter of resignation to President Dina Boluarte. In his letter he mentioned "lack of transparency," presumably from the presidency. Apparently, President Boluarte had been looking for a replacement since late December and had met with former ...

Largely good news on government finances
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Yesterday's sale of $2.5bn of 12-year USD-denominated bonds by ÁKK was met by good demand, and pricing was significantly more favourable than a year ago. The new bonds were based on a $5.8bn book, and the yield came out at 5.74%, 180bps over the US Treasury bond expiring in November 2033. Last Ja...

Ukraine bombards Russian city
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024

On January 3 Russia said that Belgorod was attacked by a Ukrainian missile. The city is close to the Ukrainian border and was hit by Ukrainian fire several times in December 2023. Russia regards these as terrorist attacks. Russia claims to have shot down a lot of Ukrainian missiles over Belgorod,...

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...

Georgian breakaway region leases land to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2024

On December 27 the President of Abkhazia signed a law that transferred a Black Sea resort to Russia for 49 years. Abkhazia is recognized as an independent country by Russia. However, the international community recognizes it as Georgian territory. The Abkhazian parliament passed the law during an...

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