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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian draftees are refused demobilization and another draft is prepared
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2023

On December 22 various media outlets published stories saying that Russia will draft more men in 2024. These will not only be the usual 18-year-olds doing their one year of military training. This will draft men up to their 40s who have already long completed their military service.  The governme...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth is stable but the tenge remains too strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Dec 2023

A few days ago, the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its usual updates on the country’s key economic indicators. The figures indicated that the economy continued to grow at a decent pace, albeit unevenly across sectors. Earlier, the Ministry of Finance reported that tax colle...

A pyrrhic victory at the December EU Summit
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Dec 2023

Almost exactly one year after the EU Council’s blocking decision, the EU Commission endorsed the government’s reforms of the domestic judicial system, unfreezing Hungary’s access to about €10bn of its seven-year EU transfer quota, in the form of development grants from cohesion policy programs. W...

Minister Alexander proposed revisions to the budget on the expenditure side, and the legislature is likely to approve them next week. Changes in the Fiscal Law were enacted by the Cabinet.
PANAMA · In Brief · 22 Dec 2023

Cabinet Resolution N. 135 of December 18 authorized several modifications (decreases) to the Public Sector Budget presented to the Legislative Assembly on July 27, 2023. The Budget Committee announced last week to the Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF) that these modifications were unsustainab...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Mild currency pressures to extend into 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Dec 2023

In the last CCA Weekly for the year, we update our currency view on the region. Back in June, when most currencies were, in our view, at their peak vis-à-vis the US$, we argued that macroeconomic fundamentals, including moderating remittances from Russia and worsening external positions driven by...

Russian macro: Economy growing on a stable external balance and currency “detoxification”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Dec 2023

As inflation accelerated and the CBR raised its key rate by 100 bps to 16%, Rosstat published 3Q23 statistics on the production side of GDP that confirmed that the Russian economy expanded by 5.5% y-o-y that quarter. The agency also mentioned that the national economy grew by 3.0% in 9M23. As Oct...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

The ruble appeared less volatile in the past couple of weeks - it fluctuated close to the R/$90 mark within a relatively narrow band. However, we see some room for its weakening in the coming months as average monthly federal budget expenditures will grow next year. Budgetary spending traditional...

The Senate approved the ICMS subsidy MP, Congress should vote on the 2024 Federal Budget, and the House will try to vote on the online sports betting and carbon market bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the Senate concluded the vote on Provisional Measure (MP) 1185/23, which deals with the ICMS subsidy and Interest on Own Capital (JCP). The text now goes for presidential sanction. Today, Congress is set to vote on the 2024 Federal Budget. A session of the Joint Budget Committee is sch...

Atilla Yesilada: CBRT delivers as expected, more to come
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

I’m subbing for Murat Ucer who is in transit to share my impression of CBRT MPC decision and statement. Murat Ucer will update as and when he sees fit. Gaye Erkan and Co. delivered as widely expected by surveys, raising the policy rate by 250 basis points to 42.5%. The accompanying statement sugg...

An irrelevant 2024 fiscal budget
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2023

On December 14, 2023, the National Assembly approved the 2024 Budget and Indebtedness Law for Bs 730 billion ($20 billion at the BCV exchange rate). This budget, unfortunately, does not serve its purpose as a fiscal policy guidance tool, which is a matter of concern.

Russo-Israeli relations at new low
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

This is the worst they have been since the dissolution of the USSR. The October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel were not fulsomely denounced by Putin despite Russians' being among the victims. Moscow has called for a ceasefire in Gaza. Putin even said Israel's tactics were close to Nazi ones. Hamas say...

Does Milei’s reform program risk insurmountable resistance?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

Last night, in a recorded speech on national television, President Javier Milei announced the signature of a Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU), which includes more than 300 reform points. He gave his speech in the company of all his cabinet (who had co-signed the DNU), with the addition of Fe...

Does this help the Barbados negotiations?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The Maduro government released two American prisoners yesterday and returned them shortly after to prison allegedly because of an airplane issue. It seems more likely that this episode was part of the most critical prisoner exchange that Maduro has ever carried out, involving the release of Alex ...

The LDO was approved, the Senate should vote on the ICMS subsidy MP today, and the House is expected to vote on the online sports betting bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the National Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). The text now goes for presidential sanction. Also today, the Senate should vote on Provisional Measure Nº 1,185, which deals with the ICMS subsidy and Interest on Own Capital (JCP). The text was approved last week and is p...

Azerbaijan: Central bank eases further to 8.00 percent from 8.50 percent previously
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan lowered the refinancing rate by 50bpts to 8.00 percent. The central bank was the last one in the region to transition into easing, having cut the policy rate for the first time only in Nov. Thus, cumulative cuts amount to 100bpts for the year. The central bank point...

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