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White smoke from Brussels - the Commission unblocked access to €10.2bn of cohesion policy grants today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

Almost exactly one year after the EU Council's blocking decision, the EU Commission today announced the partial unblocking of the government's access to the cohesion policy development grants earmarked for Hungary in the EU's medium-term budget for 2021-2027. Just as widely expected for the last ...

Economic growth remains stable
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator grew by 4.8% y-o-y in 11M23, which is more or less on par with the y-o-y growth in the previous periods (4.6% in 9M23 and 4.9% in 10M23 – both y-o-y). This indicator measures economic activity in the six major sectors of the...

The Senate finalized the vote on the online sports betting bill, Deputy Ribeiro may submit his report on Tax Reform today, and the CCJ will hold a confirmation hearing on Minister Flávio Dino
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the plenary of the Federal Senate finalized the vote on the bill that regulates online sports betting. The text will now return to the House for further analysis. Today, Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), rapporteur of the provisional measure (MP) on the ICMS subsidy, may also submit...

November's CPI expected to reach -0.1% and 3.5% y/y
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

Contrary to our initial expectations, the CBS decided to measure the “travel abroad” item in November (flights, hotels, etc) despite the 80% decline in Israelis traveling abroad. This means that the sharp shekel appreciation (4.3% against the dollar) will push the November CPI print down sharply....

Zelensky meets World Bank and IMF
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

On December 11 the Ukrainian President met the heads of these two institutions in Washington DC. Ukraine is keen to secure more loans from these Western-dominated institutions. This is crucial because donations from European countries and the US are in serious doubt. The IMF approved USD 900 mill...

Institutional crisis should end positively; the economy set to rebound in H2 2024; asset prices likely to remain well supported
PERU · Forecast · 12 Dec 2023 · 1 response

This forecast discusses three topics. First, it examines the likely outcome of the institutional crisis confronting the Judiciary, Executive, and Legislative branches. Second, we discuss our economic forecasts. We take stock of recent performance, then present our forecasts for three possible sce...

The EU has received a letter from the Hungarian minority in Ukraine - not exactly what might have been expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Dec 2023

The Alliance of Hungarian Democrats in Ukraine has released an open letter, addressed to Charles MIchel, president of the EU Council, and Viktor Orbán, Hungary's prime minister, on its Facebook page over the last 24 hours (please, see below), emphatically urging EU decision-makers to support the ...

The ICMS rapporteur may submit his report today, a session of Congress is scheduled for Thursday to analyze presidential vetoes, and the CAE of the Senate holds confirmation hearings for a series of appointments
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2023

Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), rapporteur of the provisional measure (MP) on the ICMS subsidy, may submit his report today. The idea is to vote on the report in the Joint Committee this week and in the House and Senate plenary sessions next week. A session is scheduled for Thursday to vote ...

Waiting for the economic announcements after Milei's inauguration
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Dec 2023

Over the past few weeks ahead of last Sunday’s inauguration, Javier Milei has shown a much-needed degree of pragmatism. Not only did he put his more extreme proposals on the back burner, but he also incorporated former JxC officials in key positions in his cabinet. He even went as far as calling ...

Economics: Balance of payments data are mixed, with incipient problems in foreign trade, the private sector forex surplus and FDI
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2023

Banco de México presented its balance of payments report for the third quarter and for the first nine months of 2023. While the results were largely in keeping with what we have seen for recent quarters, they contained several aspects that warrant further examination. The first is the gradual...

Last-minute attempts to bring Mr. Orbán into the pro-Ukrainian camp within the EU
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Dec 2023

It is now more hours than days that are left until this week's scheduled EU decisions, which appear to be critical for Hungary, prospectively determining the country's future, substantially and for quite a long while. First, the Commission is set to decide on its assessment and recommendation as ...

Central Bank of Armenia cuts policy rates by 25bpts to 9.25 percent
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Dec 2023

The Central Bank of Armenia cut the policy rate by 25bpts to 9.25 percent. This was in line with our forecast outlined in the 2024 Caucasus/Central Asia Outlook. The Central Bank of Armenia transitioned to easing in mid-2023 as the sizable downshift in headline inflation provided the right stimul...

Fernando Haddad's last battles of the year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2023

This will be a busy week in Brasília, with an attempt to vote on Tax Reform and the ICMS subsidy provisional measure (MP). The Senate will hold confirmation hearings for Flávio Dino for the STF and Paulo Gonet for the PGR. Congress will analyze vetoes, including those dealing with tax exemptions....

The GDP “Surprise” and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2023

Contrary to the nearly unanimous expectation of a decline between 0.2% and 0.3%, GDP in the third quarter expanded by 0.1%, largely thanks to the robust performance of household consumption. Although that growth was also benefited by the strong increase of exports, its main cause was growth of co...

Politics: A presidential campaign that wasn’t as MC’s García bid implodes, providing some breathing space for Xóchitl
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2023

The late October decision by Nuevo León Governor Samuel García to act on his presidential nomination from the MC party and begin campaigning for the country’s highest office sparked a seemingly farcical series of events that, in retrospect, appear to have been entirely predictable. At least for t...

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