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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Zelensky meets World Bank and IMF
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

On December 11 the Ukrainian President met the heads of these two institutions in Washington DC. Ukraine is keen to secure more loans from these Western-dominated institutions. This is crucial because donations from European countries and the US are in serious doubt. The IMF approved USD 900 mill...

Institutional crisis should end positively; the economy set to rebound in H2 2024; asset prices likely to remain well supported
PERU · Forecast · 12 Dec 2023 · 1 response

This forecast discusses three topics. First, it examines the likely outcome of the institutional crisis confronting the Judiciary, Executive, and Legislative branches. Second, we discuss our economic forecasts. We take stock of recent performance, then present our forecasts for three possible sce...

The EU has received a letter from the Hungarian minority in Ukraine - not exactly what might have been expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Dec 2023

The Alliance of Hungarian Democrats in Ukraine has released an open letter, addressed to Charles MIchel, president of the EU Council, and Viktor Orbán, Hungary's prime minister, on its Facebook page over the last 24 hours (please, see below), emphatically urging EU decision-makers to support the ...

The ICMS rapporteur may submit his report today, a session of Congress is scheduled for Thursday to analyze presidential vetoes, and the CAE of the Senate holds confirmation hearings for a series of appointments
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2023

Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), rapporteur of the provisional measure (MP) on the ICMS subsidy, may submit his report today. The idea is to vote on the report in the Joint Committee this week and in the House and Senate plenary sessions next week. A session is scheduled for Thursday to vote ...

Waiting for the economic announcements after Milei's inauguration
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Dec 2023

Over the past few weeks ahead of last Sunday’s inauguration, Javier Milei has shown a much-needed degree of pragmatism. Not only did he put his more extreme proposals on the back burner, but he also incorporated former JxC officials in key positions in his cabinet. He even went as far as calling ...

Economics: Balance of payments data are mixed, with incipient problems in foreign trade, the private sector forex surplus and FDI
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2023

Banco de México presented its balance of payments report for the third quarter and for the first nine months of 2023. While the results were largely in keeping with what we have seen for recent quarters, they contained several aspects that warrant further examination. The first is the gradual...

Last-minute attempts to bring Mr. Orbán into the pro-Ukrainian camp within the EU
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Dec 2023

It is now more hours than days that are left until this week's scheduled EU decisions, which appear to be critical for Hungary, prospectively determining the country's future, substantially and for quite a long while. First, the Commission is set to decide on its assessment and recommendation as ...

Central Bank of Armenia cuts policy rates by 25bpts to 9.25 percent
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Dec 2023

The Central Bank of Armenia cut the policy rate by 25bpts to 9.25 percent. This was in line with our forecast outlined in the 2024 Caucasus/Central Asia Outlook. The Central Bank of Armenia transitioned to easing in mid-2023 as the sizable downshift in headline inflation provided the right stimul...

Fernando Haddad's last battles of the year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2023

This will be a busy week in Brasília, with an attempt to vote on Tax Reform and the ICMS subsidy provisional measure (MP). The Senate will hold confirmation hearings for Flávio Dino for the STF and Paulo Gonet for the PGR. Congress will analyze vetoes, including those dealing with tax exemptions....

The GDP “Surprise” and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2023

Contrary to the nearly unanimous expectation of a decline between 0.2% and 0.3%, GDP in the third quarter expanded by 0.1%, largely thanks to the robust performance of household consumption. Although that growth was also benefited by the strong increase of exports, its main cause was growth of co...

Politics: A presidential campaign that wasn’t as MC’s García bid implodes, providing some breathing space for Xóchitl
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2023

The late October decision by Nuevo León Governor Samuel García to act on his presidential nomination from the MC party and begin campaigning for the country’s highest office sparked a seemingly farcical series of events that, in retrospect, appear to have been entirely predictable. At least for t...

The 11M23 federal budget surplus narrows before the December spending spree
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the 11M23 federal budget deficit narrowed to R878 bn from R1.235 trln in 10M23. The deficit’s peak was recorded in 4M23, at R3.049 trln. As monthly spending moderated since then, while revenue growth accumulated strength since May, the monthly budget balance ...

Zelensky in Argentina
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

On December 11 Zelensky went to Argentina for the inauguration of President Milei. Milei has come out as an outspoken advocate of Ukraine's cause. Zelensky held meetings with the presidents of 3 other Latin American countries.  Sympathy for Russia is greater in Latin American than in Europe. Some...

Tax Reform may be put to a vote in the plenary this week, Congress will review presidential vetoes, and the CCJ should hold confirmation hearings for Dino and Gonet
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2023

According to the rapporteur of Tax Reform in the House, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), intends to put the text to a vote in the plenary this week. In other legislative issues, a session in Congress is scheduled for Thursday, December 14, to anal...

The trajectory of listed vs. unlisted companies—the gap in performance has subsided
INDIA · Report · 11 Dec 2023

Over longer time horizons, there was a broad parity between the performance of listed and unlisted companies. However, in 2012, a gap opened up between the two, with superior performance by the unlisted firms. We review the period from 2012/13 to 2022/23, using large datasets of listed and unlist...

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