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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No change in the base rate today - the MNB has become more pessimistic about the inflation outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2025

Today, the Monetary Council left the base rate unchanged at 6.5% and the interest rate corridor also an unchanged +/-1%-point around the base rate. After the meeting, governor Varga spoke about the main points of the Q2 inflation report, which is set to be presented in detail on Thursday this wee...

Justice Toffoli holds a hearing on compensation for victims of the INSS scheme, Haddad and Padilha address the new SUS program, and the Mines and Energy Ministry may announce new gasoline blend percentages
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2025

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Dias Toffoli has scheduled a conciliation hearing for today to address compensation for retirees and pensioners who were victims of fraudulent membership-related deductions from their INSS benefits. Today, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Health Minister Al...

Economics: Latest aggregate demand figures reflect contraction in several areas of the Mexican economy
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2025

On Wednesday, June 18, aggregate demand and supply figures for the first quarter of 2025 were released showing that aggregate demand (equal to supply) contracted an annual -0.1% based on original figures. That slippage came mainly in response to a significant drop in gross fixed capital formation...

Entrenched polarization and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025

The government may present party leaders with a proposal for a 10% across-the-board cut in tax benefits. According to Deputy Finance Minister Dario Durigan, the Manaus Free Trade Zone and personal income tax deductions would be preserved. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) is expected to present his report on t...

Politics: Tension on multiple fronts marks US-Mexican relations
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jun 2025

US-Mexican relations, while always having their ups and downs, are today marked by considerable tensions. Such tensions have been exacerbated in recent weeks due to Washington’s aggressiveness on three fronts. The first is immigration, with intensified ICE raids across the United States, a corres...

Poland and Ukraine spar over historiography: Ukraine’s WW II narratives trigger preventive Polish veto of EU and NATO accession
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025

• Poland is one of Ukraine’s strongest allies and highly opposed to Russia, but relations between Poland and Ukraine have been blighted by key issues. • Ukraine and Poland disagree over the commemoration of Ukrainian nationalists, who killed up to 100,000 Poles during WW II and afterwards. • Po...

Iran fires missiles at US airbase in Qatar—possibly a stage-managed retaliation
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2025

In the last hour, Iran has been firing missiles at Qatar. This is an evolving situation, but here are some very preliminary thoughts: Of all the potential targets in the region, Qatar and Al-Udeid Airbase are probably the best defended, including with Patriot batteries.The base, which houses up t...

Fast and furious
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025

“In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” — Rudiger Dornbusch In 1992, when asked what the campaign strategy for then-candidate Bill Clinton would be, advisor James Carville famously replied: “It’s the econom...

The Ministry of Finance is expected to propose a 10% cut in tax benefits, the National Energy Policy Council is expected to discuss increasing the ethanol blend in gasoline, and the STF will have a busy week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2025

In an interview last week, Executive Secretary of the Finance Ministry Dario Durigan said the economic team is expected to present a proposal this week to the presidents of the Lower House and the Senate, as well as to party leaders, calling for a 10% across-the-board cut in tax benefits. Also sc...

The MNB’s tight policy course is vindicated—once again
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2025

In the past few weeks, this is the second time we are giving this title to a piece of research. The first occasion was when the May inflation data came out with an unexpected rise in the headline rate. But we are coming back to this same conclusion again, after all that has happened, and in view ...

BSP's rate cut justified by large monetary space
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jun 2025

Some segments of business media were quite skeptical about the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) decision last Thursday. The Philippines’ monetary authorities opted to sustain for the second time a 25-basis-point reduction in its policy rate and issued virtual forward guidance that it is prepare...

The GCC and oil market wait to see if Iran will respond to the US strikes
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025

Oil futures have begun trading in Asia and, so far, the response is muted. The September Brent contract nearly touched $80 on open, but within half an hour of trading, had eased back to $77 (Inv). There is still nearly $10 of risk premium in there compared with 10 days ago, but it remains close t...

No base rate change is likely at Tuesday's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025

The Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting on Tuesday, June 24. So far this year. all decisions, and indeed all votes within the Council, were for holding the base rate at 6.5%. Last time, on May 27, the Council concluded that neither domestic inflation, nor external cond...

Too many tipping points
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

Turkey and the entire region are at a tipping point. As regards the latter, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities opened up several alternative universes, in some of which the world may be struck with an oil shock reminiscent of the 1970s, or a regional war, where Turkey may be force...

GULF WEEKLY: Trump mulls entering war, UAE FDI remains strong, S&P rates UAE, Oman’s GDP picks up in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jun 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel has air superiority, and Iran’s medium-range missiles are nearly exhausted. * Trump is considering joining the war to bomb the hardened Fordow nuclear site. * The direct impact on the GCC and hydrocarbons remains l...

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