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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Israel’s budget deficit declines further in February; Treasury expected to slow bond issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Mar 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a fiscal deficit of NIS 6.1 billion ($1.7 billion) in February. The trailing 12-month deficit fell to 5.3% of GDP, down from 5.8% in January, 6.9% in December, and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. The decline is primarily attribute...

The cost of governance increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2025

Expected this week: President Lula (PT) swears in Alexandre Padilha (PT-SP) as Minister of Health and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) as Minister of Institutional Relations. Party leaders discuss the vote on the 2025 Federal Budget. In the Lower House, negotiations continue over the leadership of the Per...

Politics: Sheinbaum moves ahead with her legislative agenda, albeit with problems on the home front
MEXICO · Report · 10 Mar 2025

Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is moving full steam ahead on legislative bills. While the President constantly claims continuity with AMLO, she has also struck out on her own with a series of legislative proposals that are not part of her predecessor’s legacy. These include the Infonavit hous...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response

OVERVIEW HARVESTS OF A PT ADMINISTRATION FOR THE PT The devastating decline in Lula’s popularity consolidates his worst moment across all his terms, with the gap between those who disapprove (49%) surpassing, for the first time, those who approve (47%) of his government. According to data f...

Gleisi Hoffman will take over as Minister of Institutional Relations today, the PP will meet to discuss its position toward the government, and the Foreign Trade Chamber will meet to discuss reducing import taxes on food
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2025

Today, Federal Deputy Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) will take over the Secretariat for Institutional Relations, responsible for political coordination between the Executive and Legislative branches. A summit of the Progressive Party (PP) is scheduled to decide the party’s stance toward the government a...

Will new Finance Minister Fayval Williams's budget turn around the JLP’s political fortunes?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 10 Mar 2025

In her budget speech tomorrow afternoon, March 11, new Finance Minister Fayval Williams has the very difficult job of crafting an election-winning budget within the confines of Jamaica’s fiscal rules and recent weak economic performance. So far, she has strongly signaled that she will resist elec...

Syria erupts, everyone frets
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response

In the brief time span of 72 hours, Western Syria erupted in horrendous violence, with a free for all between Assad loyalists, Alawites, Sunnis and HTS and loosely affiliated radical jihadis, as the death toll reached a reported 1K by late Sunday. While sketchy news flow from cities like Latakia ...

Chilean presidential elections: Tohá in, Bachelet out
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2025

With the end of the antipodean summer comes the start of the school year in Chile. The days get shorter, traffic gets worse, and presidential candidates begin to position themselves. While on the center-right Evelyn Matthei has been a fairly official candidate – and has been leading in the polls ...

A quick econ update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Mar 2025

Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly in February, but corroborated the ongoing stagnation in the manufacturing sector overall. Turkstat’s seasonally-adjusted numbers for February inflation suggest, improvements notwithstanding, the road ahead for the CBRT will most likely be rather bumpy. Meanw...

PM Orbán vetoed in the European Council: will this be consequential?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2025

On March 6, the European Council held a 'special' (extraordinary) summit meeting, in preparation for the regular summit set for March 20-21. The Council did not make any decision on this occasion, but it published a set of conclusions on two subjects: a €800bn plan to rearm Europe, and EU policie...

Lower growth; higher risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2025

GDP growth in the last quarter of 2024 came out below expectations. Although a certain slowdown was already anticipated, in ligt of high-frequency data previously released, output expansion in the period reached only 0.2%, compared to an average forecast of around 0.4% and very close to the lower...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ affirms taper, Aramco cuts dividends, UAE fiscal surplus, Bahraini budget considers tax hikes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Mar 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched a 4-year low of $68 on OPEC+ taper and Trump tariffs. * Kazakhstan recommitted to overproduction compensation; Iraq failed to restart northern exports. * PMIs mainly eased but remained strong in UAE an...

CBRT reserve estimates: a technical note
TURKEY · Report · 07 Mar 2025 · 2 responses

If there is one macro indicator that needs to be watched very closely in Turkey’s disinflation journey and to gauge the (economic) sustainability of the “program” more broadly, that’s the CBRT reserves.

VP Alckmin announced that import tariffs on some foods will be eliminated, the PT will meet to decide on their next party president, and the 2025 Budget may be put to a vote next week or the following week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2025

Yesterday, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) announced that import tariffs will be eliminated for meat, coffee, corn, sugar, olive oil, sunflower oil, sardines, cookies, and pasta. The measure was announced following an inter ministerial meeting and is intended to lower food prices. Today, the...

Israeli geopolitics: stability holds in Lebanon, but Gaza uncertainty and political tensions mount
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Mar 2025

1. Gaza ceasefire in jeopardy – The expiration of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire on March 1 has made a return to war increasingly likely, as progress toward a second phase remains stalled. 2. Israel’s stance – Israel supports extending prisoner-hostage exchanges and humanitarian...

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