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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Four months to come up with a unitary candidate
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 5, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE) announced the date of the Presidential elections: July 28, Hugo Chavez's birthday. Weeks of conjectures and supposed "consultations" ended. The announcement triggers an electoral race full of obstacles for which the o...

Russian air strikes on Ukraine city as Greek PM visits
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 6 Russia continued its aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities. There were strikes on Odesa as the Greek Prime Minister was there. Russia has usually avoided attacking cities while a foreign leader is present. Kyriakos Mitsotakis was holding a meeting with Zelensky in Odesa. Mitsotakis wa...

Peru: Pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The risk of a new pension fund withdrawal has increased recently, although we believe that the probability remains at 40%. Congress-member Jose Luna Galvez, owner of the Telesup University and Podemos political party, which has strong influence on Congress's Consumer Defense Commission, is pressi...

The House elected presidents of the permanent committees, Haddad meets with governors to discuss the Fiscal Recovery Regime, and the government’s approval rating drops
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the House began the election process for the permanent committees of the House. The presidents of 19 of the 30 committees were elected. Deputy Caroline de Toni (PL-SC) was elected president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, met w...

Slide Presentation: Gulf Countries Regional Outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Mar 2024

Get insight into what is next for OPEC+ in its 8th year of cuts, whether or not fiscal policy is trending procyclical again, and risks to the GCC from regional conflicts with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Gulf Countries Regional Outlook".

Business sector activity continues to improve gradually
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The Business Tendence Survey for February points to further gradual recovery in growth, although at a pace slower than pre-war. The current situation component improved slightly but remains below the pre-war level. The expectations component turned slightly net positive from net-negative. The emp...

Analysts expect slightly rising inflation data for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The February CPI-inflation data is due tomorrow. The January actual was a surprisingly low 3.8% yoy. The median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly analyst poll is 3.9% yoy (13 respondents, 3.7-4.3% forecast range). Analysts expect (slightly) increasing inflation for the first time since ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

Feb 22 Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production in Kazakhstan increased by 0.4% y-o-y in January Bureau of National Statistics: In January, investments in fixed capital in Kazakhstan grew by 0.6% y-o-y Ministry of Industry and Construction: In 2023, coal production in Kazakhstan dec...

Gustavo Adriansén appointed new Prime minister
PERU · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Last night, Prime Minister Alberto Otárola resigned. He had been under pressure and turned into a drag on President Dina Boluarte. An edited audio released on a prime TV program Panorama on Sunday night had prompted his resignation. In this audio he is listened offering a job in the government to...

Industrial output fell, retail sales stagnated in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024

Overall, the first data on how output and demand did early this year, reported this morning, was disappointing. In seasonally and day-adjusted terms, the volume of retail sales did not change from December, despite hopes (though no outright forecasts) that the initial improvement recorded in the ...

South Africa’s economy escaped a technical recession in Q4-2023—but only just
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy barely managed to grow in the final quarter of 2023 following a contraction of 0.2% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 0....

Haddad is expected to submit a bill on Perse and the payroll tax reduction for municipalities, mayors hold a demonstration in Brasilia in defense of payroll tax reductions, and Lula will meet with the governor of Minas Gerais
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that he will send a bill to Congress on the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Events Sector (Perse) and the payroll tax exemption for municipalities. The submission should take place next week. Today, the National Confederation o...

Russia publishes German Military communications about Ukraine arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

On March 1 Moscow proved it had hacked a call between the head of the German Air Force and an officer. The officers discussed British soldiers who are in Ukraine helping the Ukrainians with targeting but not actually fighting. There was talk of Germany maybe supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. ...

The forint continues its weak trend: here are two new negative factors
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

EURHUF continued to hover some 3% or even more above this year's starting level today. In addition to everything else known so far, two new factors have just shown up, which may reinforce the current, moderately negative sentiment towards the forint. First, the detailed Q4 2023 GDP data was publi...

Lula will meet with Senate leaders today to improve their relationship, the Ministry of Finance discusses Tax Reform regulation, and there is a new conflict between the Central Bank and the PT
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2024

Today, President Lula will meet with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and party leaders. The objective of the meeting is to improve the relationship between the Executive Office and the National Congress. Yesterday, Minister Fernando Haddad said that the government's idea is...

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