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Excellent new fiscal data for H1 2025, paradoxically requiring the continuation of tight MNB policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025

The Eurostat-methodology figures for the government sector deficit, the main indicator for fiscal policy, was published for H1 2025 yesterday. The deficit ratio was surprisingly low, only 0.7% of GDP in that period. This result could raise eyebrows on the market, given the cash deficit ratio of t...

Inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation in September reached 1.1% m-o-m and 12.9% y-o-y, up from 12.2% y-o-y in August. It seems that previously delayed budgetary spending is now aligning with the upwardly revised plans. This year, the government adjusted expenditures for the re...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025

Sep 18 Mineral resources: In 4Q25, Canadian Laramide Resources will start exploratory drilling in southern Kazakhstan for uranium, REM and copper in 4Q25. Sep 22 Halyk Bank: The Bank will pay another $423.5 mln in dividends for 2024. KMG: The company and ExxonMobil have agreed to cooperate in the...

Dark clouds ahead
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025

Earlier assessments suggested that the post-pandemic slowdown in gross domestic capital formation (GDCF) could be constraining the Philippines’ productivity growth and long-term potential output. The latest data support this concern: from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, GDCF gro...

Reduction of the Monetary Policy Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Oct 2025

Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) reduced the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) by 25 basis points, from 5.75% to 5.50% per year. At the same time, it also lowered the rate of the overnight liquidity expansion facility (one-day repos) from 6.25% to 6.00% per year. The...

The House will attempt to vote on the bill granting income tax exemptions, Lula met with leaders to discuss the legislative agenda through the end of the year, and the Senate approved the IBS tax Management Committee bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2025

Today, the Lower House will attempt to vote on the bill granting an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. The opposition is trying to eliminate all compensation measures from the text. President Lula met yesterday with Minister of Institutional Relations Gleisi Ho...

BAHRAIN: Deficit expands in H1 ahead of sukuk issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

It's a busy time for Gulf sovereign bond issuance, with $3bn from Abu Dhabi last week, $11.25bn from Kuwait today (see this note) and another UAE emirate expected to issue soon. Next up is Bahrain, with its second issuance of the year, following its $2.5bn bond/sukuk in May. There is some importa...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 1, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Sep 2025

In the past week, Israeli markets and policy were shaped by two dominant forces: geopolitics and monetary policy. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan dominated headlines, offering a comprehensive framework that received broad international support but faces uncertainty around Ham...

Low growth, remittance surges and a presidential election mystery
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2025

El Salvador suffers from chronically low economic growth, and our April 2025 projections seemed to confirm this weak performance. Recent history, from June 2019 to date, when President Nayib Bukele defeated a paralyzing bipartisanship, has showed no improvement in growth. Restoration of public se...

Politics back to normal, mixed signals on economic performance and inflation, and a gloomy fiscal outlook
POLAND · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Polish politics briefly united during the September 9 drone crisis but then quickly reverted to partisan tensions. With the KO and PiS leading in polls, PiS’s rural dominance suggests a likely coalition with Konfederacja, sidelining the KO. Economically, Poland experienced strong growth in Q2 202...

Russian macro: budgetary policy to be thriftier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

On September 29, the government released its revised 2026-2028 macroeconomic forecast and presented to the Duma a draft federal budget for the same period. While this year’s economic performance has been weak (aligning with the CBR's previous warnings), the government anticipates 1.0% GDP growth....

A misquoted statement by PM Orbán, on alleged spy drones in Ukraine's airspace
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

A few days ago, President Zelenskyy accused Hungary of sending a spy drone into Ukrainian airspace on two occasions, both observed on September 26. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine even published maps to illustrate their claim, showing the alleged flying path of the Hungarian dron...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

- Trump U-turns on Ukraine war, announces support for Ukraine’s 1991 borders. - Russia and China sign agreement on massive new gas pipeline after Putin’s visit to Beijing, the Power of Siberia-2. - Zelensky announces that he will not run again after the war, tries to address inte...

Decertification is deserved – yet unlikely to do much damage
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Sep 2025 · 3 responses

U.S. President Donald Trump has identified Colombia as a major drug transit or primary illicit drug-producing country, along with the usual suspects, among them Afghanistan, Bolivia, China and Mexico. It’s not surprising that President Gustavo Petro’s policies and military strategy have led Colom...

Justice Fachin replaced Justice Barroso as President of the STF, party leaders will set the week’s voting agenda in the House, and the Senate should analyze the amendments to the IBS Tax Management Committee bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Justice Edson Fachin has assumed the presidency of the Supreme Federal Court, replacing Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Fachin sent important messages, stating: “Our commitment is to the Constitution. To the law, what belongs to the law; to politics, what belongs to politics.” Today, Lower House Pr...

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