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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 17 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 24
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NAVIGATING AN OIL GLUT: FISCAL AND RATING RISKS FOR ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A changing of the finance guard
INDONESIA · Report · 09 Sep 2025
On September 8, 2025, there was a change in the line-up of the Indonesian cabinet involving an important post, that of the Finance Secretary. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the former Finance Secretary, who was in that job for more than 10 years, was replaced by Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, who had been in the ...
QATAR: Israeli airstrike on Hamas villa in Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
UPDATE: A Qatari security officer was killed. This significantly increases the stakes. Meanwhile, although some Hamas members were killed, the senior leaders were not. At about 4pm local time today, an Israeli airstrike targeted the residence of Hamas's political office in the West Bay Lagoon nei...
Flood control projects: breach of social contract?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Sep 2025
Between 2011 and 2025, the Philippines allocated nearly ₱1.9 trillion to flood control projects, yet flooding has worsened due to pervasive corruption. Investigations reveal that as little as 40 percent of project funds reach implementation, with the rest siphoned off by politicians, DPWH officia...
Economics: Employment stagnates in the second quarter and July 2025
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2025 · 1 response
According to the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE), for the second quarter of 2025 and July, the growth in job numbers indicates a clear slowdown that began last year, consistent with the overall weakening of the economy. The employed population experienced a weak annual increase, ...
Clashes in Istanbul, terror in Izmir
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
Gursel Tekin pits CHP followers against the police: The sacked CHP Istanbul provincial administration issued a call to members to congregate in front of the headquarters “to defend our ancestral home” against invader Gursel Tekin. Several hundred heeded the call marching towards the building, whe...
August CPI data marks no change in inflation prospects
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
The headline rate was 0% mom, 4.3% yoy, the latter unchanged from the previous month. Core inflation moved a bit down, to 3.9% yoy from July's 4% yoy, whereas non-fuel inflation rose a bit, to 5% yoy in August from 4.9% yoy in the previous month. Note: Yoy changes in percent, data right of the ve...
Encouraging August fiscal data for the Treasury, but risks persist ahead of the 2026 budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2025
Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance published positive budget data for August. Revenues came in stronger than expected, while the deficit narrowed more than anticipated, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.7% of GDP from 4.8% in July. The improvement largely reflects a sharp accelera...
September 7 highlights the political divide and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) resumes the trial of Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. The trial ends on Friday, September 12. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB–AM) presents his report on Complementary Bill No. 108/22 (Tax Reform regulation). Former Social Securit...
Politics: Mexico pleased with the results of the Sheinbaum-Rubio meeting, but underlying differences remain
MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The much awaited meeting between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio was finally held in Mexico City on September 3. It was the highest-level meeting between the two countries since Donald Trump took office seven months ago. The meeting was held in shadow o...
MTP 2026-28: Some quick thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 was published in the Official Gazette and presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and his economic team, including Finance Minister Simsek and CBRT Governor Karahan, at a press conference this morning. We lay out some quick thoughts below.
Russian macro: With the economy persistently slowing, the CBR has to act
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
In our June macroeconomic forecast, we revised Russia's 2025 full year GDP growth outlook down to 2.0%, with a slightly better figure of 2.4% for next year, expecting a "muddling through" scenario. We noted that the growth model that emerged during the pandemic in 2020 and solidified amidst the 2...
Independence day celebrations yesterday reflected the country’s polarization, the STF is scheduled to begin casting votes in Bolsonaro’s trial, and the report on the Management Committee bill should be released
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The September 7 celebrations reflected the polarization that divides the country. The central message from Bolsonaro’s allies was the defense of amnesty for those involved in the January 8, 2023, attacks. The Supreme Federal Court’s (STF) First Panel resumes trial proceedings against former Presi...
A budget made in Hogwarts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The administration has proposed a budget that, under optimistic assumptions, would result in a primary deficit of 0.17% of GDP in 2026. The projections rely on favorable revenue scenarios, which depend both on supportive economic conditions and on the approval by Congress of politically sensitive...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 8, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Sep 2025
This is the first of a new series of weekly reports in which we will review and analyze the week's geopolitical and macroeconomic developments and provide an outlook on both. In geopolitics, the main event of the past week continued to be the government’s decision to push ahead with the conque...
The Indo-US relationship: navigating a tariff shock and geopolitical recalibration
INDIA · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The 50% US tariff on Indian goods represents a significant stress test for the Indo-US relationship. While the direct economic impact appears surprisingly contained due to global trade reconfiguration and supply chain inertia, the core issue is geopolitical. The conflict is a symptom of leadershi...