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GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises in tight market, Sharjah issues sukuk, Oman’s current account returns to surplus, Houthis talk peace in Riyadh
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rose to $94 as forecasts point to a potential Q4 supply gap of over 3m b/d. * The IEA and OPEC clashed over longer-term forecasts; the IEA expects demand to peak this decade. * Turkey criticized plans for an I...

President Lula will speak at the opening of the UN General Assembly next week, the CCJ continues discussions on Tax Reform, and the Central Bank will meet to decide on the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2023

The presidents of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), will accompany President Lula on his trip to the United States next week. Next week, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) continues with the debate on Tax Reform. On Tuesday, there will be a public...

Webinar replay: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

What are the systemic risks in China’s shadow banking industry today? What constraints will this put on China's future growth? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Andrew Collier discussing the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry.

Webinar replay: Turkey and the Gulf - The impact of reconciliation
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

How much financing have the Gulf States delivered or pledged to Turkey and to what extent did it stabilize the lira? What are the implications for regional geopolitics? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Justin Alexander (GCC), Atilla Yesilada (Turkey), and Murat...

Inflation in August surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2023

Inflation in August surprises on the upside The CPI in August was up 0.5% m/m (expectations were in the 0.3%-0.4% range) accelerating to 4.1% y/y from 3.3% in July due to a strong base effect. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.9% from 3.6%, and excluding...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Monetary policy gets into a more predictive easing mode
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Sep 2023

This past week was characterized by a host of monetary policy decisions in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The central banks of Armenia and Georgia cut policy rates as broadly expected while monetary authorities in Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged. Next week it will be Azerbaijan’s turn t...

Slide Presentation: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

Get insight into the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry with the presentation from our webinar, "China - How risky is shadow banking?".

Signaling continuing pause?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Sep 2023

BSP Governor Eli Remolona told reporters yesterday that he does not see the need to hike policy rates based solely on the spike in prices last month. Markets took the Governor’s statement as a signal that the Monetary Board will leave policy rates untouched when it meets next week. This view like...

Congress approves 2024 budget number, ignoring CARF warning
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023 · 1 response

On September 13, the economic committees of Congress approved the size of the 2024 budget at COP 502.6 trillion (29.6% of GDP), leaving the amount submitted by the Finance Ministry back in July unchanged. From now until mid October, the plenaries of the House and the Senate will continue to discu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

The ruble remains volatile as messages coming from different sources contradict each other. On the one hand, CBR officials last week directly indicated that it could hike the key rate again. The latter was a hawkish signal and caused some appreciation of the currency. On the other hand, top manag...

Pro-Putin party wins Russian regional elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

On September 14 all the results were in. The United Russia won a handsome victory. It controls the great majority of regional legislatures and governorships. This includes Russian-controlled Ukraine. But United Russia is less popular in the Far East than elsewhere. This is a relatively poor area....

The new members of the ministerial team took office yesterday, the House approved the sports betting regulation bill, and a new schedule for Tax Reform was released yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2023

Yesterday, President Lula inaugurated the new ministers: André Fufuca (Sports), Silvio Costa Filho (Ports and Airports), and Márcio França (Entrepreneurship, Micro-enterprise and Small Business). The PP and Republicanos parties are still looking for more second-tier positions. Yesterday, the Hous...

The NBU cuts the prime rate by an extra 2 ppt down to 20%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

In August, with inflation easing to +8.6% y/y, strong gross international reserves at $40.4 billion (equivalent to 5.4 months of future imports), and a relatively stable FX market, all signs indicated that the NBU Board would cut the prime rate again in September. Experts had anticipated a 2 ppt ...

Macro fundamentals remain shekel positive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

Macro fundamentals remain shekel positive The current account surplus declined slightly in Q2 to 4.2bn USD (sa) from 5.0bn in Q1, but more importantly, the goods/services account surplus increased slightly to 3.1bn from 3.0bn (excluding the primary income which has less of a direct impact on FX f...

Uzbekistan: Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged, adds hawkishness to message
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent. This is the fourth consecutive decision to keep the policy rate at this level since the last 100bpt cut in Mar. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated geopolitical ris...

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