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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Sep 12 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Aug 27
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Chile databank Aug 26
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 2
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Aug 25
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 12
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Sep 10
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Sep 15
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South Africa databank Sep 5
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Sep 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY POLITICS: CHP VS. GOLIATH...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Winter is coming, but what kind?
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2023 · 1 response
Last week’s main topic was the infighting in the high judiciary, which has blown over in a couple of days, without anyone grasping what it was all about. This week witnessed President Erdogan’s return to “wolf warrior” diplomacy, sniping at Israel relentlessly and managing to offend his hosts in ...
Russia ships grain to Africa for free
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2023
On November 17 Moscow announced the shipments had been dispatched bound for Somalia and Burkina Faso. They are due to arrive by the end of November 2023. Two ships were sent and they each contained 25,000 tons. In July 2023 Putin said Russia would give 200,000 tons of grain to six African nations...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts Gaza summit, Bahrain’s non-VAT revenue disappoints, Dubai orders 140 planes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Nov 2023
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and the IEA continued to diverge sharply on 2024 oil demand projections, by 1.4m b/d. * The Arab-Islamic summit on Gaza in Riyadh produced strong rhetoric but no substantive actions. * Iran has indicated that it does...
Finland closes 4 of its 6 border crossings to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2023
On November 16 Finland announced it will close the border crossings with Russia on November 17 at midnight. The aim of keeping 2 border crossings open is to permit asylum seekers to enter. The border is over 1,000 km long. In November 2023 there was a huge influx of people crossing the border in...
Webinar replay - Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Nov 2023
How effective will Brazil's fiscal framework be? What impact will the country's monetary policy have on the interest rate by the end of the easing cycle? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Brazil's macro outlook for 2024.
Deputy Forte announced that the zero-deficit fiscal target will be maintained, Thursday is the deadline for Lula to sanction or veto the payroll tax exemption bill, and the STF may adjudicate the ICMS tax rate case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2023
The rapporteur of the bill that deals with the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE), announced yesterday, after a meeting with the government, that the target for next year will be a zero deficit, as defended by the economic team. This is a victory for the Minister o...
Webinar replay - Geoeconomic reshuffling in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Nov 2023
How has the 3rd Karabakh war has reshuffled the deck of winners and losers in the region? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar discussing how sustainable the new regional relationships are in the short-to-medium term as individual economies adapt to the new geoeconomic real...
Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April - amended
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Nov 2023
We are re-sending this report, amended with small changes to Tables 2-9 in the Statistical Annex that brought our inflation forecast to 204% from our previous 202%. In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. ...
China’s external constraints
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Nov 2023
Special points to highlight in this report: * We continued to see a slow recovery in growth in October along with, far more importantly, a slight improvement in the quality of growth, as consumption growth for the year outpaced GDP growth. But as always, nothing fundamental has changed. *...
GDP growth beats expectations in 3Q23
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2023
Rosstat reported that Russia’s GDP grew by 5.5% y-o-y in 3Q23, which was well above expectations. Even though it was a flash estimate and no other details have been provided, this figure indicates that economic growth accelerated in 3Q23. In 2Q23, GDP was up by 4.9% y-o-y. Note that the deepest c...
Slide Presentation - Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023
Get insight into Brazil's macro outlook for 2024, including how effective Brazil's fiscal framework will be and what impact the country's monetary policy will have on interest rates by the end of the easing cycle—all with the slide presentation from our "Brazil 2024 Macro Outlook" webinar.
The STF will adjudicate appeals regarding the breach of sentences in tax matters, Lula should appoint a new Prosecutor General in the coming days, and the Alesp should hold a public hearing on the privatization of Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023
Today, November 16, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will adjudicate appeals from companies regarding the breach of sentences in tax matters. In February, the Court decided that final judicial decisions in favor of taxpayers could be annulled if the Court established a different understanding of t...
New UK Foreign Secretary visits Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2023
On November 16 Lord David Cameron met Zelensky in Kyiv. It is his first trip abroad since being appointed. Cameron is the former British Prime Minister. Lord Cameron was appointed Foreign Secretary on November 13. He reiterated that the United Kingdom shall support Ukraine in every way until the ...
Fiscal Rule under fire
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Nov 2023 · 2 responses
Early on after taking office, President Petro said, “At some point, Colombia will have to choose between Peace and the Fiscal Rule”. Finance Minister Ocampo reacted quickly back then and calmed the waters, saying fiscal policy would be carried out unwaveringly within the limits of the Fiscal Rule...
Bulgarian elections narrowly drive wedge with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2023
Among various EU members, Bulgaria has a close cultural and historical affinity with Russia, but the two countries’ politics have diverged over the post-Soviet period. In the context of the Ukraine war, as well as redrawn energy pipelines, we examine how events in internal politics in Bulgaria lo...