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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia destroys Ukrainian grain silo
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2023

On July 19 Ukraine said missiles had destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain and damaged export infrastructure. This came 2 days after the Black Sea Grain Initiative ended. On July 18 Russia hit Ukrainian ports. Russia noted that the Ukrainian air defense was ineffective. It seems that Kalibr and Onyx m...

Inflation falls into target range, but pressure to boost growth is rising
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Jul 2023 · 1 response

The positive news is that, after 32 months above the 4 ± 1% y/y target range, inflation fell into range in May, and in June stood at the 4% y/y midpoint. But the negative news is the weak January-May economic growth, of just 1.4% y/y. These two reports together led to monetary policy easing. J...

The second phase of Tax Reform will depend on the discussions in the Senate and the government’s negotiations with the Centrão, and the government issued an MP on INSS waiting times
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2023

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that the income tax reform will only go to Congress after consumption reform. It will depend on the negotiations on Tax Reform in the Senate and the expansion of the Centrão's space in the government. If the government meets all the demand...

South Africa's sigh of relief as Putin and Ramaphosa make a deal on BRICS summit
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 19 Jul 2023

President Putin and President Ramaphosa announced today that the Russian President is not going to attend the 2023 iBRICS Summit n South Africa next month. Russia will be represented by the Foreign Minister Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov. This brought to an end months of speculation and political wran...

Russian Health Minister calls for women to give birth before education and career
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2023

On July 19 Mikhail Murashko said that many people need to make an attitudinal shift. The notion that a woman should achieve financial security before having children is wrong. Delaying having children too long heightens the risks of miscarriage and childlessness. He called for women to have 4 chi...

Expected disappointment
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Jul 2023

An economic downtrend this year has been evidenced in falling inflation and non-oil imports in the first five months. Recently published GDP data for Q1 confirmed this trend. Although y/y growth was positive at 0.7%, it is the lowest since Q2 2021, while the quarterly performance was the worst s...

Ricardo Martinelli found guilty of money laundering in the New Business trial
PANAMA · In Brief · 18 Jul 2023

Former President Ricardo Martinelli (71) was sentenced to 128 months in prison, along with a fine of 19 million dollars, and the transference of the shares of EPASA to the government. EPASA is the holding company that owns two newspapers in Panama; its purchase by RM, presumably with money from p...

Russia running short of artillery and tanks but capturing Western weapons
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2023

On May 31 a Dutch organization, Orynx, reported that Russia had lost over 2,000 out of the 3,000 tanks used to invade Ukraine in 2022. Losses have continued since then. Ukraine has sustained serious losses of equipment. The Ukrainians are circumspect about their counter-offensive because the gain...

Economics: New points of friction in US-Mexico trade, a potential threat to FDI and nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jul 2023

Mexican exports to the US have been experiencing a slowdown in recent months that has been most concentrated in their non-automotive manufacturing component even as automotive exports have been highly volatile, delivering very high growth rates in some months of 2022 and early 2023 after dropping...

First time the BOP is indeed improving: a quick look at the preliminary May data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Jul 2023

The following table gives you the key elements of the BOP for January-May, as % of GDP (sources: MNB, KSH): Clearly, there were improvements on all of the trade balance, the current account balance, the net financing requirement and the basic balance, despite the deterioration reported on net fac...

Global Inflation – A Complement
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

In our last weekly report, “Global Inflation and Slower Growth: Consequences for Brazil”, we analyzed the reasons (fiscal and monetary) for the resilience of worldwide inflation. The objective of this report is to provide further information regarding the reactions in the monetary and fiscal fiel...

Politics: Opposition precandidate Xóchitl gains impetus; odds improve to eventually bring the MC on board
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jul 2023

Less than three weeks since Senator Xóchitl Gálvez surprisingly announced she would enter the presidential contest she has quickly gained momentum, as both endorsements and the latest polls show. In that short time, she has easily leapfrogged over all other aspirants to become the opposition’s st...

Haddad's honeymoon phase and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

This will be a slow week, with no activity in Congress. Federal Deputy Celso Sabino should take charge of the Ministry of Tourism. President Lula will participate in the Celac-European Union summit in Brussels. This week's Talking Points:  * Legislative balance: positive * Inc...

The Good Trade Balance and Current Account Balance Results
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jul 2023

Due to another rising cycle of international commodity prices, Brazil’s trade balance has improved significantly since 2020. According to Secex data, in the 12 months through June there was a surplus of US$ 72 billion, with exports of US$ 336 billion and imports worth US$ 263 billion. These expor...

Surging Chinese (and US) debt is structural
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jul 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Both June and second quarter numbers were disappointing. I continue to expect growth to surprise on the upside in the second half of 2023, but only because there is increasing pressure on Beijing, worried about a disappointing first half of the yea...

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