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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Eight polls will be published this week, President Bolsonaro will give the opening speech at the UN General Assembly, and Rodrigo Pacheco will discuss the nursing salary floor and the provisional measure on tax credits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2022

This morning, the FSB/BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election was published. According to the poll, Lula's advantage over Jair Bolsonaro in the first round increased to nine points from six points. On Tuesday, as is tradition, Bolsonaro will deliver the opening speech of the UN General Asse...

Solid Q2 GDP data
URUGUAY · Report · 19 Sep 2022

The recently published 2Q22 GDP data came in better than expected. With real growth of 7.71% y/y and a seasonally adjusted rise of 1.1% q/q, it represented the fifth consecutive quarter of growth and an improvement compared to the 0.5% q/q rise seen in 1Q22.

Inflation surprises slightly on the downside
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Sep 2022

* Inflation in August came in below expectations as food prices declined; core inflation y/y stabilized at 4.7%. * At the moment, a 0.5% rate hike appears likely in October, although 0.75% cannot be ruled out. * The CA surplus declined in Q2 as the trade deficit increased and the service...

Inflation surprises slightly on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Sep 2022

Inflation in August came in slight below expectations * Inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (4.6% y/y), compared with expectations of -0.1% to -0.2%. * Core inflation remained stable y/y at 4.7% (similar to that in July). * The main surprise came from the decline in food prices, while OER prices conti...

The EU Commission's rule-of-law proposal is out, quite in line with expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2022

The EU Commission has made up its mind as to what to propose to the European Council (more accurately Ecofin) on Hungary's ongoing rule-of-law procedure. The proposal is to set a financial penalty of €7.5bn of development grants, which represents 65% of Hungary's quota for three cohesion policy p...

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
TURKEY · Report · 18 Sep 2022

President Erdogan came back from his meeting with Putin on the sides of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit with some gifts, though these may have fallen short of his expectations. Nonetheless, it is clear that Putin is ready to bankroll his pal Erdogan’s election campaign. The questions...

Russia admits concerns of its allies over the Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2022

On September 15 at the Shanghai Cooperation Summit Plan said he had spoken to the Chinese about their "concerns" regarding the war. On September 16 the Prime Minister of India told Putin, ''Now is not the time for war.'' Modi asked Putin to end the war by diplomacy. India is Russia's second bigge...

Kazakhstan bring elections forward
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022 · 1 response

On September 16 Kazakhstan announced that a presidential election will be held in fall 2022. This is a surprise. The election was not due until December 2024. Why is the president bringing it forward? Presumably he considered that the situation will be more propitious for him now. The ostensible ...

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador announced running for reelection
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022

by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Thursday his intention to run again for president in 2024, despite the country’s Constitution prohibiting serving consecutive presidential terms. The announcement was made on public television and social media a...

GULF WEEKLY: Nuclear deal hopes fade, Dubai’s PMI hits 3-year high, Sisi visits Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Pessimism grew about an Iran nuclear deal but it avoided additional official censure at the IAEA. * Moody’s said the credit profiles of Oman and Qatar stand to benefit the most from high oil prices. * Saudi inflation acce...

Inflation comes in below expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Sep 2022

Inflation in August declined by 0.3% m/m (4.6% y/y, down from 5.2% last month). Market expectations were in the -0.1% to -0.2% range (we were expecting -0.2%). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) remained stable at 4.7% y/y (and 4.4% excluding government price hikes). The ...

A tough week for President Bolsonaro, the STF votes to suspend the national nursing salary floor, and another presidential debate will be held on Saturday, September 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2022

There are at least two reasons why the week was not good for Bolsonaro. One is the verbal attack by São Paulo State Deputy Douglas Garcia on journalist Vera Magalhães. The second is the negative impact of the budget cut from the Popular Pharmacy program. Most ministers of the Supreme Federal Cour...

Cyclical peak of inflation may come in early 2023 - MNB's Mr. Virág spoke in the press
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022

In today's Magyar Nemzet, vice governor Virág said that Hungary is now close to the cyclical peak of inflation, but unlike a possible peaking in Q4 this year globally, Hungary may only see the peak reached in early 2023. In more detail, he said: - A turnaround is seemingly in the making in inflat...

Putin meets Xi
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022

On September 15 the Presidents met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan. Putin thanked Xi for China's balanced stance on Ukraine. This was their first in person meeting since the war began. Putin effusively backed China's position on Taiwan. Taiwan is part of China ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary Sep 2 Sberbank: The bank has sold its subsidiary bank in Kazakhstan to the state-owned Baiterek Sep 5 S&P: The agency has confirmed the sovereign ratings of Kazakhstan at investment grade level (BBB-). Though the outlook has been changed from "stable" to "negative"...

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