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Pro-Moscow Ukrainian shot dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2022

On August 29 an official in Kherson was killed presumably by Ukrainian Forces. The man was Alexei Kovalev who was a Ukrainian politician who had been working for the Russian Administration. Kovalev had even been in President Zelensky's party until a few months ago. Ukraine has been very eager to ...

The presidential debate is not expected to cause major changes in the race, the Senate approved the bill regarding health insurance coverage, and the House should vote on provisional measures before they expire
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2022

The most discussed topics in the press following the presidential debate were Lula's slip when Bolsonaro asked him about corruption and the way President Jair Bolsonaro reacted to a question from journalist Vera Magalhães about vaccines. The race remains polarized between Lula and Bolsonaro, with...

China's tech crackdown - an excerpt from my new book, "China's Technology War: Why Beijing Took Down Its Tech Giants"
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2022

When Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba, gave a speech on October 24, 2020 to the country’s political and financial elite, he set in motion a crackdown on China’s flourishing technology sector that will have long consequences on China’s economic growth. In my n...

Economics: What the troubled Sofomes say about the state of the Mexican financial system
MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2022

This past August 8 an important Sofom (one of the Multiple Purpose Financial Companies or Sociedades Financieras de Objeto Múltiple) announced it was suspending payments to its creditors given “the complicated environment facing the non bank financial institution sector.” Given that this company ...

Chile's Constitutional Referendum: The Countdown Begins
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Aug 2022 · 1 response

With just under a week to go to Chile’s constitutional referendum, the political process which began on 18 October, 2019 is about to reach its zenith. Polls continue to show that a plurality of Chileans will reject the draft constitution on 4 September, although as other important votes elsewhere...

Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices to support revenue flow for the rest of the year
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Aug 2022

On August 27, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Zhamaubaev presented a draft law on the Republican budget for 2023-2025. Mr. Zhamaubaev mentioned that republican budget revenues are expected at KZT 17.8 trln next year while expenditures should reach KZT 21.0 trln. Hence the deficit is expected t...

Politics: Mexican educational system stymied by mistaken government policies
MEXICO · Report · 29 Aug 2022

Educational policy and programs have played a key role in the public battle between proponents and opponents of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Fourth Transformation (4T), which openly declares its aim to radically transform Mexican society. The Education Reform of 2013 pushed by then-Pre...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Aug 2022

The great majority of the recent opinion polls indicate that Lula’s advantage over Bolsonaro is narrowing, and in some cases even suggest a statistical tie. The rejection of both leading candidates also is relatively equal, at a level above 40%, reflecting the sharp polarization of the current el...

No risk of rupture and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2022

The National Congress will hold a week of concentrated voting. On Wednesday, August 31, the Executive branch sends the 2023 Federal Budget to Congress for analysis. Polls on the state and federal elections will be published throughout the week. This week's Talking Points:  * Main topi...

Russia vetoes UN resolution on nuclear disarmament
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2022

On August 26 the UN proposed a resolution that Russia said was unbalanced and politicized. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is reviewed every 5 years. It aims to stop the spread of nuclear arms, to encourage disarmament and to promote cooperation on nuclear energy.  The text had been un...

The Bandeirantes presidential debate took place last night, the latest poll shows that the difference between Lula and Bolsonaro has dropped to 7%, and Congress will hold a week of concentrated voting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2022

Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet did well, but the debate is unlikely to get them enough votes to break the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro. Lula performed poorly on the issue of corruption. Bolsonaro strongly criticized journalist Vera Magalhães, and this was not taken well. According to the ...

Further tightening expected ahead
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Aug 2022

The MPC continues to reveal its hawkish bias * Policy rates moved 0.75% higher, to 2.0%, at the high end of consensus, which was in the 0.5%-0.75% range and closer to 0.5%. * Rates have pretty much surprised on the upside since the tightening cycle commenced. * Present rat...

Further tightening expected ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Aug 2022

The MPC continues to reveal its hawkish bias Policy rates moved 0.75% higher to 2.0%, at the high end of consensus which was in the 0.5%-0.75% range and closer to 0.5%. Rates have pretty much surprised on the upside since the tightening cycle commenced. Present rates (2.0%) are relatively high co...

Russia has detained 16,500 for anti-war protests in 6 months
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2022

On August 24 human rights group OVD Info published a report about the scale of state repression in Russia. The great majority of the arrests for expressing anti-war sentiments came in February and March 2022. Since then there have been very few demonstrations. Most of the arrests were in the two ...

Visit of Kazakh President to Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2022

On August 24 the President of Kazakhstan visited Azerbaijan. He met with whom he described as his ''brotherly'' Azerbaijan analogue. The aim of the visit was to strengthen friendship between the nations and to deepen their partnership. The two former Soviet republics are both Turkic nations and h...

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