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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A make-it-or-break-it year
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 Apr 2021 · 1 response

Let’s start with a caveat. In our almost two decades of jointly covering Turkey as the Global Source Partners Turkey team, we’ve never written a quarterly/forecast report amid this sort of uncertainty. As a compromise of sorts, since the key questions in most of our readers’ minds focus on the ve...

Russia’s 2020 GDP is revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2021

Rosstat announced that according to its second estimate, Russia’s GDP contracted by 3.0% instead of 3.1% reported previously. The result is not unexpected as earlier upward revisions of the 2018 and 2019 growth should have affected the 2020 data. At the same time, Rosstat finally released quarter...

Russia’s Pandemic/Political Update: Every Sandpiper Praises its Swamp
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2021

In the past four weeks, Russia’s daily average registered virus cases gradually descended from around 10K to around 9K, and were getting closer to 8K quite often in recent days. Overall, the trend was downward so far, albeit decelerating. The country’s epidemiological picture looked more favorabl...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ tapers, Saudi plans $3trn capex, Kuwaiti MPs boycott parliament
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will taper by 1.1m b/d and eliminate the 1m b/d in extra Saudi cuts by July. * Coronavirus continued to worsen across the region, with Qatar expected to go into lockdown. * There were hints of a softening in both US...

Russian payday loans are dangerously in arrears
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2021

On April 1 data released by Equifax showed that as of February 2021 some 5.4 million payday loans were behind. That is a huge number in a country of 145 million.USD 2.2 billion is owed to microfinance firms. These very short term loans have exorbitant rates of interest. A third of these loans are...

Italy declares 2 Russian diplomats PNG
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2021

On March 31 Rome expelled two Russian diplomats whom it assessed to be undeclared intelligence officers. This was because the police arrested an Italian naval commander allegedly in the act of handing over classified intelligence to a Russian military diplomat. Russia has seldom engaged in espion...

The economy steadily recovers as historical statistical data consistently revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s aggregate output in the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, which represent nearly two-thirds of GDP) was down by 2.3% y-o-y. This result looks good given the high base effect in February 2020 due to a leap year's additional da...

​3Cs of Armageddon
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

President Erdogan is battling three Cs of Armageddon, which like the proverbial Four Horsemen are riding hard to haunt him. He doesn’t have months to solve these three problems simultaneously. One month is the most this author allocates to him, during which he has to make very painful policy choi...

Quiet deals may lead to broader negotiations
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Mar 2021

A sharp spike in Covid-19 infections has forced Nicolás Maduro’s government to order a strict two-week lockdown for a period including Holy Week. The national hospital system has run out of Covid-19 beds and faces severe shortages of oxygen, medicine, and equipment. Yet the Maduro government, ...

Follow up to Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

In the referenced brief, I included two charts that apparently lost their format. I am including the charts here with my apologies.

Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A summary of different polls carried out during the past week and weekend shows that political trends for Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso changed after the debate that took place on March 21st.Around 63% of citizens from Quito and Guayaquil watched the entire debate from which 34% thinks Lasso w...

​For the first time during the COVID 19 pandemic, economic activity shows positive year-on-year growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

In February 2021, for the first time the Monthly Index of Economic Activity shows positive year-on-year growth, compared to the situation just before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth rate was 1.1% in Feb 2021 compared to situation in 2020. The most dynamic economic activities have b...

Russian venture capital market fell sharply 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

Data from Dsight showed that in 2020 venture capital investment fell from USD 869 million to USD 703 million. This is put down to the pandemic and the search for safer investments. The number of deals was up 14% YoY. There were more startups as well. Q3 and Q4 were much better than Q2 2020.Invest...

​Pre-ECQ developments
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Mar 2021

The following data released this week show a mildly improving economic picture before the surge in covid19 cases that led to the current lockdown.Government yesterday released February’s Labor Force Survey showing over 2.1 million of the nation’s working age population returning to the labor mark...

The ANC under President Ramaphosa moves to clean house – finally
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Mar 2021

Corruption has had a profoundly negative impact on South Africa’s economy and society. At the same time, the country’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), has been guilty of a myriad of corrupt practices, both at the local and national levels. Notably, government finances have d...

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