GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Last week, the COPOM raised the SELIC rate by 75 basis points and promised (with some reservations) an adjustment of equal magnitude at the meeting in June. With respect to the overall size of the cycle, however, it continued affirming that it will pursue a “partial adjustment”. Since its task wi...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong

ISRAEL · Report · 10 May 2021

Unofficial bond tapering by the BoI is apparent, while FX intervention increased sharply in April. Economic indicators remain robust, especially business sector surveys and consumer confidence. The cumulative fiscal deficit in the last 12 months to April declined to 11.2% on strong tax revenues d...

Belarus' president provides for collective leadership if he is incapacitated

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2021

On May 8 Lukashenko signed a decree stating that if he dies in office or is otherwise rendered incapable of executing his duties then the Security Council shall collectively carry out presidential duties. Until now if the president died or was incapacitated then presidential powers would have bee...

Russian small loans soar

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 Equifax Russia published statistics showing that the highest ever number of payday loans was issued in March 2021. Microloans were up 30% YoY. The loans totalled USD 418.5 million. The average size of a loan was USD 180. That is a tidy sum in a country where many people live on USD 2 000...

Renewed pressure on Lukashenko

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 the self-declared President of Belarus Svytlana Tsikhanouskaya called for an international conference on Belarus. She wants the EU to formulate a plan to assist civil society in Belarus. She also testified before the US Congress by videolink and requested tighter sanctions. On May 5 layw...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit narrows, Saudi-Turkey talks, new Qatar finance minister

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases rebounded in Bahrain but eased elsewhere in the Gulf. * Erdogan spoke with King Salman, and Cavusoglu will visit Riyadh next week. * The Saudi deficit narrowed to just -1% of GDP in Q1 but will deteriora...

QATAR: Finance minister charged

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 May 2021 · 1 response

In a stunning development in the last hour, it was announced that the arrest had been ordered of Ali Shareef al-Emadi, Qatar's finance minister, by the Attorney General (QNA). It is not clear if he is in custody or the specifics of the charges being brought against him, described as involving "da...

Winter is coming - a quantitative review of COVID

ARGENTINA · Report · 05 May 2021

Over the last year, we have been analyzing the economic and political impact of the pandemic, anticipating the scope of this global shock on the local economy. In this report, amid a severe second wave, with an erratic vaccination program being implemented, we add a complementary question: How mu...

Tax uncertainties add up to more than R$ 1 trillion and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2021

Expectations are high regarding the testimony of the former Ministers of Health and the current Minister of Health, Marcelo Queiroga, in the Pandemic CPI in the Senate. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has promised to release the final report on Tax Reform today, May 3. Cong...

South Africa’s economy – a year into the Covid-19 pandemic

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 03 May 2021

South Africa’s growth: In line with what transpired globally as the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in both a worldwide health crisis and widespread economic crisis, the South African economy experienced a deep contraction of 7% in real GDP in 2020. Yet, a number of tail winds, including fewer restric...

GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s negative on Bahrain, S&P affirms Sharjah, QP might issue $10bn

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s put Bahrain on negative outlook and sees debt rising to 140% of GDP by 2023. * S&P affirmed Sharjah but sharply cut its fiscal outlook, with debt up to 63% of GDP by 2024. * Its update on RAK was more positive, wi...

Huarong and state defaults

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Apr 2021

The Huarong near default was important because a) it is the largest of the country’s Asset Management debt workout firms; b) it is 61 percent owned by the Ministry of Finance, making it directly owned by the central government; and c) it is has a significant amount of outstanding bonds, both dome...

Covid-19 eases its grip and the growth outlook improves

PANAMA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

So far this year the IMAE is showing a decrease of 9.73% for February and 12.2% during the first two months of the year. We must take this information cum granus salis because, during the first quarter of 2021, most commercial activities were shut down because of the pandemic. In contrast, in 202...

Mobility restrictions for the holiday

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

Indonesia is in the midst of the fasting month, the Ramadan. In the second week of May 2021, the holidays will start and they are usually full of celebrations, among families and in communities. Prior to the holidays, millions of people will go back to their hometowns and villages to see their pa...

SAUDI ARABIA: Highlights from MBS’s remarkable interview

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Apr 2021 · 1 response

In a 90-min interview marking the 5th anniversary of his Vision 2030 strategy, MBS made major announcements on taxes (VAT will be reduced, there will be no income tax) and financing (Aramco may raise about $19bn selling equity to a "global energy company" and the 2030 target for PIF's assets has ...