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IMF approves new program, $2.1 billion first installment underway
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jun 2020

Finally, the IMF approved an 18-month $5 billion Stand-By Arrangement for Ukraine. The first installment is very generous – $2.1 billion – reflecting the emergency from the COVID-19 pandemic. The next payments presumably will be equally distributed among four installments. We should wait for the ...

The government is working on social assistance
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2020

The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, confirmed today that the government will extend the payment of emergency aid for informal workers for another two months. However, Guedes has not yet revealed what the installment will be. In previous instances, President Jair Bolsonaro had spoken of R$ 300....

Russian macro: Oil near breakeven price - FX interventions to subside, ruble moving toward equilibrium
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2020

As oil prices continued to climb in recent weeks, and the Urals blend price exceeded $40/bbl on June 8, the Russian ruble appreciated to below 70 per USD. In early June, the Ministry of Finance announced its daily FX interventions plan, which can only strengthen the ruble in the current environme...

Good news and bad news: inflation and budget data is out for May
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2020

The May CPI-inflation data, released this morning, was definitely good news. It was not primarily the headline rate, which fell to 2.2% yoy from 2.4% in the previous month, as the monthly average increase of prices still reached 0.5%, i.e. not particularly impressive, only allowing for a decreasi...

More wear on Bolsonaro for COVID-19 decisions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2020

The controversy surrounding the disclosure of cases and deaths by COVID-19 represents a new focus of wear for the Jair Bolsonaro government. The Ministry of Health´s decision to change the way coronavirus data is disclosed caused negative repercussions in public opinion. Last Saturday, the Min...

OPEC and Russia extend cuts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2020

On June 6 OPEC and Russia agreed to a 30 day prolongation of their record breaking production reduction. The objective is to keep oil prices from falling and ideally raise them. There are 13 OPEC states, and Saudi Arabia is the mightiest producer among them. Russia is not in OPEC but co-operates ...

Projections for 2020 and 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2020

The size and duration of the present recession depend largely on the degree of federal, state and local coordination regarding social isolation, and the quality of economic policy. This coordination is for the most part lacking, and various state governors are now opening their economies despite ...

Politics: New Covid-19 confusion and conflict
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jun 2020

The initial days of the return to the “new normal” (as the government has termed this latest stage in its management of the Covid-19 pandemic) have been marked by confusion and conflict. Until recently the National Palace was fine with letting state governments assume the risk of figuring out for...

Demonstrations have low support
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2020

The Superior Electoral Court discusses the case against the Bolsonaro/Mourão electoral ticket on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Federal Supreme Court analyzes the fake news inquiry. The Lower House analyzes provisional measures that change labor laws and the bill on medication/healthcare plan pricing...

Tracking the recovery from the lockdown
INDIA · Report · 08 Jun 2020

One of most interesting questions in Indian economics today is that of tracking the decline of the economy after the lockdown, and its recovery ever since. As the standard macroeconomic measurement in India works poorly, it is important to come at this question using novel data sources. In thi...

China virus check – week of June 8
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows some pockets of economic growth, but overall flat-to-negative activity: 1) Rising coal consumption in the power industry, but relatively flat operations for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion is flat to down. 3) Expressway traf...

Economics: Trade balance for April augurs further crunch
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Foreign trade data for the first quarter reflected a deepening recession, as trust in the Mexican economy was fading and the first stage of the Covid-19 pandemic started to show its economic effects. However, April data clearly reflects the very deep contraction that is expected for the whole yea...

The BoI to continue to target the long end of the curve
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Recent data continue to reflect contraction, but improving in May: * The BoI Composite Index declined by 0.3% in April. * Exports of services declined by 9% m/m in March (mostly tourism). * We note that high-tech service exports are up 9.4% saar in Q120, an important driver ma...

Appeasing
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Covid-19 and gasoline shortages brought protests and recession. On 1 June 2020 the government started trying to appease by easing the shutdown and imposing a gasoline rationing system that guarantees a significant rent to Homeland ID holders. The economy reopens while the number of Covid-19 c...

From health scare to political crisis
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jun 2020

Turkey transitioned directly from health scare and economic distress into a no-holds-barred political brawl, which threatens stability going forward. The sacking of three opposition MPs is a sign of President Erdogan escalating pressure on the opposition, but to what end? One reason may be the...

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