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New PM in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2020

On June 4 the president appointed Raman Golovchenko as prime minister. Golovchenko is a 46-year-old former diplomat. He was head of the State Military Industrial Committee. Golovchenko's former role could be an indication of why he has been promoted. Lukashenka said he appointed him to ensure dis...

Divergences mark the debate on the extension of the coronavoucher
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2020

The discussion on the extension emergency aid is growing in Brasília (DF). Of the three installments released by the government in the amount of R$ 600 for informal workers, one more is yet to be paid. In the face of pressure to extend the aid, President Jair Bolsonaro said the government should ...

President of Belarus dismisses cabinet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2020

On June 3 President Alexander Lukashenka dismissed his government. A presidential election is scheduled for August 9. Lukashenka 's bold gambit might be linked to the election. The current incumbent is expected to be re-elected for the sixth time. A fair election is unimaginable. Lukashenka, 65, ...

South Africa’s debt dynamics, Covid-19 and the way forward
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Jun 2020

South Africa’s debt had already reached worrying levels long before the Covid-19 pandemic reached the country’s shores. The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 26.5% in 2008 to 62% in 2019 - exceeding the IMF’s suggested 55% debt-to-GDP ratio. The high and rising debt levels have meant that increasi...

Russia declares state of emergency over oil spill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2020

On June 2 Putin declared a state of emergency because 20 000 tonnes of oil were leaked into a river north of the Arctic Circle. This occurred at a power plant close to Norilsk Siberia, on May 29. The president was irate because he was only informed of the incident two days later.The plant is owne...

New IMF program to be approved on June 9
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jun 2020

The IMF Board is expected to approve new program for Ukraine on June 9th, according to the IMF Board Schedule. Despite the IMF announced about staff-level agreement on May 21st it took two weeks to submit Ukraine’s file to the Board. Discussions over the conditionality of the new program – that w...

Poor print, but the CBRT may ignore it
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2020

Consumer prices rose by 1.36%, m/m, in May (May 2019: 0.95%), which was notably higher than consensus, yet somewhat closer to our forecast. The 12-month CPI rate thus rose visibly to 11.4% from 10.9% in April. Domestic-PPI inflation was better behaved, which came in at 1.5%, m/m, in May (May 2019...

Putin plans referendum for July 1
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2020

On June 2 Putin said that a referendum on constitutional reform will be held on July 1. This was originally scheduled for April but had to but had to be postponed owing to coronavirus. The reforms proposed would allow the president to serve a further two terms. This would allow him to remain in o...

Slight drop in the temperature of the political crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2020

The decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Minister, Celso de Mello, to archive the request from opposition parties to seize the cell phone of the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, and his son, City Councilor Carlos Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ), represents an important step towards m...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2020

Virtually leaderless, the country is facing acceleration of number of deaths caused by the pandemic, deepening of the recession and the worst institutional crisis since redemocratization in 1985. These crises are feeding into each other, creating a dangerous vicious circle, which appears to pleas...

Clashes on Uzbek-Kyrgyz Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2020

On May 31 civilians on the frontier of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan fought each other with stones. Several houses were set on fire. Over 30 people have been injured but so far no one has died. Some of the wounded have required surgery. The fighting centered around the Sokh Enclave. Sokh is Uzbek ter...

Positions delivered to the Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The Jair Bolsonaro government continues to advance in the appointment of positions for the parties of the so-called “Centrão”. Today, the appointment of Marcelo Lopes da Ponte, chief of staff of Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), to the presidency of the National Education Development Fund (FNDE), an...

Politics: Official Covid-19 data misgivings
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Mexico is apparently starting to reopen. However, the authorities are providing the most contradictory evidence and explanations for such a move, along with incoherent and constantly shifting guidance as to what the reactivation is supposed to consist of. Clearly a battle is raging in the adminis...

Economics: Data pointing to an economic precipice
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The GDP report for the first quarter confirmed fears that the recession in Mexico had started to accelerate, a shift that economic readings for the first two months of the year had already begun to anticipate, including especially significantly lagging ones corresponding to January (the coinciden...

Polarization takes to the streets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

President Jair Bolonaro will have to respond to a case in the Superior Electoral Court that calls for the annulment of his electoral ticket. States and municipalities should receive part of the R$ 60bn in aid from the federal government. This week, civil servants who wish to run for office in the...

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