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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Poor print, but the CBRT may ignore it
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2020

Consumer prices rose by 1.36%, m/m, in May (May 2019: 0.95%), which was notably higher than consensus, yet somewhat closer to our forecast. The 12-month CPI rate thus rose visibly to 11.4% from 10.9% in April. Domestic-PPI inflation was better behaved, which came in at 1.5%, m/m, in May (May 2019...

Putin plans referendum for July 1
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2020

On June 2 Putin said that a referendum on constitutional reform will be held on July 1. This was originally scheduled for April but had to but had to be postponed owing to coronavirus. The reforms proposed would allow the president to serve a further two terms. This would allow him to remain in o...

Slight drop in the temperature of the political crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2020

The decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Minister, Celso de Mello, to archive the request from opposition parties to seize the cell phone of the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, and his son, City Councilor Carlos Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ), represents an important step towards m...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2020

Virtually leaderless, the country is facing acceleration of number of deaths caused by the pandemic, deepening of the recession and the worst institutional crisis since redemocratization in 1985. These crises are feeding into each other, creating a dangerous vicious circle, which appears to pleas...

Clashes on Uzbek-Kyrgyz Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2020

On May 31 civilians on the frontier of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan fought each other with stones. Several houses were set on fire. Over 30 people have been injured but so far no one has died. Some of the wounded have required surgery. The fighting centered around the Sokh Enclave. Sokh is Uzbek ter...

Positions delivered to the Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The Jair Bolsonaro government continues to advance in the appointment of positions for the parties of the so-called “Centrão”. Today, the appointment of Marcelo Lopes da Ponte, chief of staff of Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), to the presidency of the National Education Development Fund (FNDE), an...

Politics: Official Covid-19 data misgivings
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Mexico is apparently starting to reopen. However, the authorities are providing the most contradictory evidence and explanations for such a move, along with incoherent and constantly shifting guidance as to what the reactivation is supposed to consist of. Clearly a battle is raging in the adminis...

Economics: Data pointing to an economic precipice
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The GDP report for the first quarter confirmed fears that the recession in Mexico had started to accelerate, a shift that economic readings for the first two months of the year had already begun to anticipate, including especially significantly lagging ones corresponding to January (the coinciden...

Polarization takes to the streets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

President Jair Bolonaro will have to respond to a case in the Superior Electoral Court that calls for the annulment of his electoral ticket. States and municipalities should receive part of the R$ 60bn in aid from the federal government. This week, civil servants who wish to run for office in the...

Extra OPEC+ cuts will be credit positive, as is Qatar's LNG carrier order
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Highlights: * OPEC+ is expected to bring forward its meeting to this Thursday. * The current -9.7m b/d cuts are likely to be extended for at least two months. * Most of the revenue gains from this action are likely to come in Q4 and 2021. * Separately, Qatar's order of 100+ LNG carriers...

Russia pandemic update: Looking for herd immunity and becoming less affected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

In the past two weeks, the daily number of confirmed cases has fluctuated between 8K and 10K, and its rate of growth decelerated from over 4% closer to 2%. The disease spread has seemingly stabilized in Russia. It cannot be ruled out that the new “generation” of viruses is now less aggressive tha...

GDP in the First Quarter and Perspectives
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2020

In Brazil, the reaction to the pandemic only started in earnest in the second half of March, but this was sufficient to provoke 1.5% contraction in GDP for the first quarter. Although a campaign is clearly underway to relax the social distancing, the contagion curve is still increasing exponentia...

China virus check – week ending June 1
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry but rising for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion is flat. 3) Expressway traffic is variable, but with no trend. 4) Underground metro rail traffic is weak, apart fro...

Larger bond issuance is likely to be met with stronger BoI purchases
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jun 2020

The economy continues to open up, despite an increase in Covid infections in some schools. Credit card purchases in the second half of May reached 96% of the January-February level. Government bond issuance increased by 24% in June to 13bn ILS, indicating concern regarding a large fiscal deficit...

​Preparing for the “new normal”
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Indonesia was “officially”​ hit by COVID-19 in early March 2020. In the period of three months after the official announcement, various efforts have been made by the government to mitigate the harsh consequences of the semi lockdown implemented to cut down on the spread of the virus. Many people ...

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