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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A critical year
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Mar 2021

Guatemala performed better than its regional partners in 2020. Though the COVID-19 pandemic affected the global economy, its intensity differed from country to country. In Guatemala, temporary restrictions on economic activity were compensated for by positive external results in merchandise expor...

​Covid watch (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Mar 2021

The surge in covid19 cases continued this week with the daily new cases reaching another high of 9,838 today. The 7d average was 7,846 this week, up another 50% from last week and more than doubling in a span of 12 days. Metro Manila accounted for about half of the total. Most worrisome, health f...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s emir returns to a crisis, Covid worsens, IMF lifts Bahrain debt forecasts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases are on the rise, particularly in Bahrain and Kuwait, and new restrictions are being introduced. * Saudi Arabia rehashed a Yemen ceasefire proposal that the Houthis unsurprisingly rejected. This comes as their a...

Russian rocket launches UK telecomms into space
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Mar 2021

On March 25 a rocket took off from the Vostochny cosmodrome in the Russian Far East bearing 36 British satellites for phone and internet connections. OneWeb is a UK company seeking to finish a group of low orbit satellites to improve broadband worldwide.The company is striving to complete the pro...

Suez Canal Blockage
INDIA · In Brief · 26 Mar 2021

The blockage in the Suez Canal is an important problem for global trade. It is particularly important for India. Increased costs of transportation are tantamount to a government-induced barrier to trade.The two biggest ports of India, at Nhava Sheva and Mundra, are on the West Coast. Indian trade...

South Africa’s monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting the economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Mar 2021

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced it is keeping the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%, hence the prime lending rate also remains at 7%. The repo rate has stayed at 3.5% since end-July 2020 following consecutive cuts of a cumulative 300 basis points fr...

Five themes relevant to the economic, financial and political perspectives of the country in 2021
PANAMA · Report · 25 Mar 2021

We discuss five policy issues that may influence the economic performance of the country in 2021: whether or not the newly published results of 2020 will affect our 4.9% projection for the year, the effects of the most recent downgrade of the sovereign debt, the political economy of the dialogue ...

Russian public spending hits post Soviet record high
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2021

On March 23 data was published showing that in 2020 public spending was at its highest in real terms since the end of the USSR. The government spent more to negate the impact of coronavirus.If you consider regional spending as well as federal spending as well as off budget spending by government ...

Russia to trade carbon credits
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

On March 23 Moscow announced that it is setting up a digital platform to collate satellite and drone images and data about forests in the Russian Far East with a view to selling them on a carbon offsetting market. The system is called ''Lesvostok.rf'' which means ''forest east.'' It will be launc...

Russian oil sales to US overtake Saudi's
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

On March 24 Bloomberg noted that in 2020 Russian oil shipments to the United States outstripped Saudi sales for the first time.US oil purchases from Russia make a mockery of US concern about the EU buying too much gas from Russia.Russia is now the third biggest oil exporter to the US. Russian oil...

Israel election update: coalition formation looks increasingly complicated
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

With 90% of the votes counted, the balance of mandates has shifted dramatically. The Netanyahu led block currently has only 52 mandates. If Benett (Yamina) and his 7 seats join this coalition, Netanyahu will still be short of the necessary 61 majority. Netanyahu must bring in one of the Arab part...

Telegram gains USD 1 billion. RDIF among investors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

On March 23 the messaging app announced that it has sold bonds to foreign investors. The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) is among the buyers. Telegram which is based in Dubai is owned by Pavel Durov who also set up VKontakte. Durov says he wants the investment to allow Telegram to expand in...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2021

* Russia’s economy continues to grow, and data shows that 2020 was better than expected. * FixPrice’s IPO in London has been a roaring success. * Ukraine is nationalizing Motor Sich, which will upset China. * Some EU countries are buying Sputnik V. * The Kyrgyz president has been ...

No signs of credit restraint in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Mar 2021

There is widespread talk within Beijing following the leadership meetings about a return to lower credit growth following years of excesses. This is being echoed by the western media. The Financial Times just published a piece saying that Xi Jinping is “curbing the credit fuelled excesses of the ...

Consumption set to rebound
CHINA · Report · 24 Mar 2021

Economic recovery is still going strong. In January-February, industrial output was up 35.1% y/y, and up 16.9% compared to January-February 2019. Annualized growth was 8.1% y/y, higher than all quarterly growth since 2015, and up 1 pps from Q4 2020. Since the Chinese economy was shut down to a la...

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