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Russia and Myanmar agree more cooperation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2021

On June 21 according to the Russian Security Council, the head of Myanmar's military government said that he wanted to strengthen links with Russia. Junta supremo Min Aung Hlaing is in Moscow for a 3 day conference. This is his second trip abroad since he took power.The Russian Security Council C...

Contradictory messages on when to start the discussion of the fiscal pact
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

Yesterday in an interview the Ministry of the Presidency, Lisandro Macarrulla, pointed out that the discussion of the fiscal pact would begin "now" and that its application would be in January 2022. However, today in a meeting in the National Palace with representatives of the business, labor and...

President Abinader creates a Working Group for the International Price Crisis
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

This morning President Abinader summoned businessmen and representatives of the labor, economic and social sectors to the formation of a Working Group for the International Price Crisis. The attendees made the commitment to participate in the dialogue and within 10 days they must submit proposals...

Greater Growth, Lower Risk and Interest Rates Higher Than the Neutral Level
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 21 Jun 2021

We project growth of 5.2% in 2021, and 2% in 2022, near potential growth. In 2021, the persistence of a weak labor market will prevent significant expansion of household consumption, and the fiscal constraint will prevent a greater contribution from government consumption. With investments still ...

Economics: Investment recovery remains very slow and uneven
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2021

Reactivating investment is key to the recovery of the Mexican economy following the decline observed since the second half of 2018, and especially during the pandemic. The determining factors driving such a renewed growth in investment would be certainty, confidence, consumption reactivation, and...

Politics: Organized crime’s significant violent intervention in the June 6 mid-term elections
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2021

Organized crime, specifically drug cartels, has increased its control over state and municipal governments. This played out in the recently concluded June 6 mid-term elections. There were 91 killings of candidates and their staff during the campaign, along with 1,000 violent attacks on Election D...

Movement in the political center and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2021

This week, the government will send Congress a bill that modifies income taxes for individuals and companies, aside from the taxation of profits and dividends. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Eletrobras provisional measure. The Senate could vote on the provisional measure that increase...

Provisonal measure on the privatization of Eletrobras should be voted upon in the House, important bills on tax changes in Congress, and 500,000 deaths from COVID-19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jun 2021

The edited text on the privatization of Eletrobras submitted to the House by the Senate will likely be approved. The Ministry of the Economy’s Tax Passport should be voted upon in the Senate on Thursday. The Senate’s COVID CPI has three testimonies scheduled for this week.

​Government adopts austerity plan in public spending.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

Last Saturday President Luis Abinader issued Decree 396-21, which provides for the adoption of a set of administrative measures in order to rationalize public spending. The measures adopted impose restrictions on the purchase of vehicles and remodeling of buildings. Likewise, parties, donations a...

Inflation surprised slightly on the downside in May
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Jun 2021

Highlights Inflation surprised slightly on the downside in May: * Inflation reached 1.5% y/y and core inflation 1.0% y/y. * The main surprise came from clothing prices, with a modest seasonal price increase. This suggests that the seasonal price decline in the summer months will also...

Armenian election leads to victory for Prime Minister Pashinyan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

Armenia held a parliamentary election on June 20, 2021. The acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's My Step Alliance won 545 of the vote. This exceeded expectations. The opposition, led by Robert Kocharyan, said the results were due to cheating. His party won only 21%.Pashinyan is an English-spea...

Analysts expect the sterilisation rate to rise to 0.9% tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

The much-awaited June rate-setting meeting, when the Monetary Council is set discuss the quarterly inflation report as well, is due tomorrow. Analysts, including us, expect both the 1-week deposit rate and the base rate to go 0.9%, from 0.75% and 0.6% respectively. In effective terms, this would ...

Macro (shekel) fundamentals improve in Q121
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Jun 2021

Highlights: Inflation surprised slightly on the downside in May. Inflation reached 1.5% y/y and core inflation 1.0% y/y. The main surprise came from clothing prices, with a modest seasonal price increase. This suggests that the seasonal price decline in the summer months will also be more modest....

Goodbye Biden, hello (again) volatility
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jun 2021

This week’s report is uncharacteristically short and focuses mainly on the economic data, as our politics author-cum-cosmic strategist is experiencing internet problems where he is. As regards the much-anticipated Biden-Erdogan meeting, this author’s understanding is that all contentious issue...

Putin announces massive public spending as his party loses popularity
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2021

On June 19 Putin said at a United Russia Party conference that RUB 100 billion would be spent on infrastructure and welfare. Putin was a member of United Russia until 2010. Now he is an independent. However, United Russia is the most slavishly pro-Putin party. Putin's ratings are always above the...

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