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Essential CIS Politics: August 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2025

- Aeroflot grounded by massive cyberattack; Ukrainian group claims responsibility. - Russia—the first country in the world to recognize Taliban Afghanistan. - Russian armed forces drive a wedge between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. - Ukraine experiences unrest related to Zel...

Zelensky backs down in anti-corruption clash: reputation bruised, need for elections grows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

After facing sharp criticism from Ukrainian civil society, noisy (though not massive) protests, and unprecedented pressure from European leaders, the European Commission, and IFIs, President Zelensky backed down from his attempt to undermine the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption instituti...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% in line with market expectations. The regulator’s rhetoric was rather neutral, while many investors expected a more dovish tone. As a result, the OFZ yields contracted moderately. We think these expectations seemed unfounded, as the CBR had never sounded...

Inflation finally in its bounds around the target. Wages accelerate?
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

Today, Statistics Poland showed flash inflation numbers for July (they will be revised by mid-August). As expected, CPI fell from 4.1% y/y in June to 3.1% in July. While it was a sizeable change, and inflation finally got back to the permissible bounds of fluctuations around the target, the drop ...

The monetary policy interest rate remains unchanged
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

The Central Bank announced that in August 2025, the monetary policy interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.75% annually. The rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) remains at 6.25% annually, while the overnight deposit rate continues at 4.50% annually. The monetary pol...

Sizing up the trouble
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

In a decree published this Wednesday, President Donald Trump raised the tariff on Brazilian products to 50%. Attached to the decree was a list of 694 products that will be exempt from the new tariff, including items such as orange juice, petroleum derivatives, certain steel products, cellulose, a...

The pause continued
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

As expected, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept the benchmark interest rate target at 15% per year. At the same time, however, in a curious grammatical construction, it stated that: “If the expected scenario materializes, the Committee foresees a continuation of the inte...

The U.S. announced the list of products that will be subject to the 50% tariff, the U.S. also imposed sanctions on Justice de Moraes, and the Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 15%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

The United States has announced the list of Brazilian products that will be subject to a 50% tariff. The executive order included 694 exceptions, notably orange juice, pulp, and Embraer aircraft. The U.S. government also imposed sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. In...

Israel cuts bond issuance in August, suggesting fiscal pressures remain contained
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

The Israeli Ministry of Finance plans to raise only NIS 5 billion in tradable bonds in August, through just two weekly auctions. This reduced issuance pace - partly due to summer seasonality -suggests the government does not expect a significant fiscal deterioration beyond its current deficit tar...

Hanging tight
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jul 2025

Costa Rica’s economy is entering period of underperformance, masked by currency appreciation and near-zero inflation. GDP growth is slowing more sharply than expected, driven by weakening domestic demand, restrictive monetary policy and global trade tensions, particularly due to new tariffs impo...

Governors issued a joint letter to the president of Camex and VP Alckmin, big tech companies met with VP Alckmin to discuss Trump’s tariffs, and the Central Bank is expected to announce the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2025

Governors from the states of Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and São Paulo issued a joint letter to the president of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber (Camex) and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, requesting a postponement of the decision regarding tariff reduc...

Q2 GDP data met expectations, exceptionally
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2025

As we reported yesterday, all forecasters expected GDP growth to be slightly positive in Q2, after being similarly negative in Q1. And they have proven to be right. In fact, real GDP growth reached +0.4% qoq, +0.2% yoy, the former after a revised -0.1% qoq in the first quarter. This also means th...

Temporary contraction in economic activity in June due to the war; slowdown unlikely to affect monetary policy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2025

Summary of key findings The Bank of Israel’s composite index fell by 0.67% in June, due to the war with Iran. The decline reflects a temporary slowdown in economic activity, especially in private consumption and employment. Despite the recent slowdown, we expect the interest rate to remain unchan...

Selic, default, and consumption: what to expect?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2025

Consumption shows signs of slowing down in the second quarter, indicating that contractionary monetary policy is possibly already taking effect. The increase in the interest rate occurs in a scenario of high household indebtedness, which should exert additional pressure on default rates. Our ...

The government continues to negotiate countermeasures to Trump’s tariffs, Brazilian senators will meet with U.S. lawmakers today, and the Central Bank’s Copom meets today to discuss the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2025

A contingency plan prepared by the Ministries of Finance, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), and Foreign Affairs was presented yesterday to President Lula in an effort to mitigate the impact of the sweeping U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports, scheduled to take effect on Friday. Sources within th...

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