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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Dispute with the U.S. reshapes the 2026 chessboard and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

Congress resumes its legislative work this week with a packed agenda for the second half of the year, including key issues such as the Income Tax Reform, regulation of the broader Tax Reform, and a provisional measure increasing taxes on financial investments and betting platforms. President Lula...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

OVERVIEW UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME The 50% tariff rise on U.S. imports of Brazilian products caused a rupture in diplomatic relations between the two countries, triggering the most acute political and economic crisis since Brazil’s redemocratization. Following Trump’s election,...

Politics: Scandal puts ties between politicians and organized crime under the spotlight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025

A major scandal has erupted in Mexico with far-reaching short, medium, and long-term consequences. On July 12, General Miguel Ángel Martínez revealed that there is an outstanding arrest warrant for Hernán Bermúdez Requena, former Secretary of Public Security of Tabasco. He is charged with crimina...

Bolsonaro’s supporters held demonstrations across the country, Congress resumes activity this week, and Trump’s tariffs are set to take effect on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) held demonstrations in several cities on Sunday, August 3. President Lula (PT) and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes were the primary targets of the protests. Congress resumes its activity this week amid a tense political atmosphere and a...

Again better than expected, but still quite sticky
TURKEY · Report · 04 Aug 2025 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.1%, m/m, in July (vs consensus forecasts of around 2.4%), with the 12-month CPI rate declining further to 33.5%, from 35.1% in June. Monthly PPI inflation was 1.7% in the month, which led to a slight easing in the 12-month PPI rate to 24.2%, from 24...

Inflation likely remains elevated for the rest of the year, prompting no rate cuts from NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation decelerated m-o-m from 0.8% in June to 0.7% in July. However, the y-o-y price index remained unchanged at 11.8%. Services prices grew y-o-y by 14.9% (down from 16.1% in June), food prices were up by 11.2% (up from 10.6% in June), and the n...

Moody’s Ratings raises the credit rating of the Dominican Republic from “Ba3+” to “Ba2” with a stable outlook.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

According to a statement released by the Ministry of Finance and Economy, Moody’s considers that “high political stability—especially in comparison with other Ba-rated countries and regional peers—helps the Dominican Republic attract consistently high levels of foreign direct investment, increase...

The budget was published today, but the Legislature won’t analyze it until next week (hopefully)
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025 · 1 response

The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) presented its draft of the 2026 General State Budget to the plenary of the National Assembly last Wednesday. However, legislative committees have not yet been formed. This delay is due to internal disputes among political parties over control of key commi...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit narrows and GDP accelerates, Oman records strong FDI, UK will recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Aug 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US tariffs on GCC states are remaining at 10%, providing a competitive edge on some other states. * The Saudi deficit narrowed to -3% of GDP in Q2, mainly due to a seasonal rise in tax revenue. * There was a record $36bn ...

Obstinate Petro risks blowing up public finances
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025 · 1 response

The criminal trial of Álvaro Uribe—the most influential political figure in Colombia in the 21st century—has culminated in a ruling that could redefine the country’s relationship between law and power. After years of legal entanglements rooted in a 2012 complaint initiated by Uribe himself, Judge...

Economic growth reportedly decelerated in June, albeit available statistics were incomplete
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

Rosstat’s recent monthly statistical bulletin (with June data) looked unusual as the statistical agency didn’t publish basic sectors output change (its favorite monthly proxy for overall economic activity). It occurred for the first time since the agency started publishing this indicator. In 5M25...

Baseline scenario confirmed: U.S. tariffs exclude Chilean copper inputs
CHILE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

According to the official White House communication, the new tariff package imposes a 50% ad valorem duty on imports of certain semi-fabricated copper products (e.g., tubes, wires, rods, and sheets) and copper-intensive downstream goods (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical c...

The U.S. may call on Brazil to negotiate as the tariffs are set to take effect next week, both the government and the opposition are politicizing the tariffs issue, and Congress resumes work next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2025

According to reports in the press, Brazil is expected to be called upon to negotiate with the U.S. government. However, no date has been set. Both the government and the opposition are attempting to politically capitalize on the situation, each pushing their own agendas. Congress will resume acti...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Most frequently asked questions from the CCA Webinar
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

In last week's CCA Webinar I focused on the political developments in the region, including Georgian Dream's chances of winning the local elections in October, Armenian PM Pashinyan's attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church, and the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. The...

The SA Reserve Bank cuts rates as inflation expectations continue to moderate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) once again announced, on July 31, 2025, that it is cutting the benchmark interest rate, its second consecutive reduction since May, and by another 25 basis points. The decision followed the conclusion of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) fourth meeting of...

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