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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

From dark to darker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 15 Oct 2024

Our September report was entitled “A dark fourth quarter". That is precisely what we expect for the past quarter, with the problem of blackouts of up to 10 hours for every industrial and household sector and no near-term solution in sight, since rain—the main ally of a slow government—will not be...

Economics: Afores (private pension funds) could be the next source for financing the growing public deficit
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Public finances have continually weakened, especially in the past three years, with ever-increasing public deficits. For 2024, it is estimated that the public deficit will close at nearly 6% of GDP. The factors underpinning this forecast are that the federal government accelerated its spending to...

Downward inflation surprise in September reduces chances of tightening in the near future
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

September’s inflation print (-0.2% m/m 3.5% y/y moderating from 3.6%) came in below market expectations of no change (0,0%, ours as well). Core inflation moderated as well to 3.0% y/y from 3.1%. Housing rental price (OER) accelerated slightly to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%. The big surprise came from airf...

Politics: Judicial reform advances but conflicts continue, with major potential consequences
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Morena and AMLO’s much touted judicial reform has passed the legislative procedural hurdles, and the National Electoral Institute (INE) has agreed to organize the election of judges, justices, magistrates, with the first election slated for next June. However, the fight is far from over, and the ...

Lira has scheduled a Congressional session for this week with virtual attendance, the FPE will meet with Barreirinhas to discuss the 15% tax on multinationals, and the CAE holds a public hearing to discuss the impact of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

The President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has scheduled a Congressional session for this week but has allowed for virtual attendance. In other words, the session can be attended remotely by the deputies. Today, the Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship (FPE) will meet with the Special S...

Battles in the runoff, the right-wing's unity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Senator Eduardo Braga is expected to present the work schedule for the regulation of Tax Reform (PLP No. 68/24). The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) continues to hold public hearings to discuss the topic. The National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) may open a public consultation on the ...

You Reap What You Sow
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Recently, the Treasury has faced difficulties in placing fixed-rate or inflation-linked bonds, as their prices embed a high-risk premium. As a result, the share of Selic-linked bonds has grown rapidly, worsening the composition of public debt by reducing maturities and increasing sensitivity to i...

The Deputy Governor hints at possible tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Oct 2024

1. Rates remained on hold last week, with the Deputy Governor sounding rather hawkish compared to the Governor. 2. The fiscal deficit pushed higher in September but is expected to reach 7.2% GDP this year. 3. Economic growth accelerated in Q324 (exports especially), with expectations for so...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

Oct 3 Borrowings: Kazakhstan placed sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln at a 4.717% yield. The demand was strong as issuance was oversubscribed by a factor of 4. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will provide the largest compensation for oil overproduction within OPEC+ in October  Oct 6 President: A con...

The Deputy Governor sounds more hawkish than the Governor
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2024

Geopolitics: Israel continues to push on with its ground operation into Lebanon, while missiles into Israel’s North (including the Haifa area) continue at a high intensity. Israel continues to attack parts or Northern Gaza as well. The Israeli retaliation against Iran appears imminent, with the m...

Think global, act local
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2024

After pondering at length developments in the Middle East, Ukraine war and the US presidential elections, the political analyst has decided to dedicate a major portion of his contribution to this monthly report to potential exogenous shocks, which would completely wreck Mehmet Simsek’s Economic S...

The order of factors does affect the product: a defeat for the Executive in the Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2024 · 1 response

This week, the Executive Branch presented its proposal for the 2025 national budget to the Legislative Branch, which was challenged on Thursday by the Budget Commission for three reasons: (1) it was not submitted on time, as the Constitution (Article 184) requires the proposal to be sent within t...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil remains elevated over Iran strike fears, Bahrain’s GDP growth slows in Q2, Wynn receives gambling license in UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude held at around $78 amidst ongoing conflict concerns. * Iran reportedly warned Gulf states of retribution if they facilitate an Israeli attack. * UK investments: PIF buys 40% of Selfridges, ADIA writes down 10%...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge correction looks healthy and will stabilize tax flow in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Oct 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently reported that tax revenues of the National Fund amounted to KZT2.980 trln in 9M24, i.e., about 50% of the annual plan (KZT5.957 trln). In 8M24, the government accumulated KZT2.863 trln (48.1% of the plan). As one can see, revenue flow remained sluggish in...

Electoral campaigns for the municipal run-offs resume on TV and radio, the STF will adjudicate two cases regarding taxes, and next week Senator Braga is expected to submit a timeline for the regulation of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2024

Today, electoral campaigns on TV and radio will resume in the 52 municipalities where a run-off will take place. The campaigns will run until October 25, and the run-off is scheduled for October 27. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin a virtual plenary session to determine whether t...

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