GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The economic recovery continues being led by household consumption, stimulated by the low interest rate and growth of new lending. Nevertheless, the key variable for better performance is the behavior of the labor market, which has been improving gradually. Although still high, in October the num...

Growth surprises somewhat on the downside

TURKEY · Report · 02 Dec 2019

The Turkish economy grew by 0.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of 2019, broadly in line with expectations, but sequential growth, which is a lot more important to monitor nowadays (given the strong base effects from last year) was somewhat weaker than envisaged, with GDP expanding by 0.4% over the p...

Gulf weekly: Qatar doubles hydrocarbon reserves and talks with Saudi

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco’s IPO has received $74bn in domestic orders but only $3bn internationally so far. * Qatar sharply hiked its gas and oil reserves and upsiz...

Russian missile test in Arctic

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2019

On November 30 Russia tested a hypersonic missile in the Russian Arctic. It was an air to ground missile called Kinjal which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The main Russian news agency reported the news. Clearly the Russian Armed Forces want people to know. Moscow views the Arctic as i...

Islamist mitosis, growth obsessions

TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2019

The split in the venerable Islamist movement ought to become official before the end of the year, as former AKP heavyweights Ali Babacan and Prof. Ahmet Davutoglu formally launch new parties. They are not to be underestimated, because they represent frustrated voter segments in AKP. Furthermore, ...

Zelenskiy loses support: policy changes are looming

UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Dec 2019

Everyone is discussing the slump of Zelenskiy's popularity. On November 27th, KIIS released fresh polls on political support. President Zelenskiy lost 21ppt just in the three months since September.His rating is still incredibly high – 52% – however, rumors say the president was extremely disappo...

Indonesia: Ahok comes back into the picture

INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2019

Ahok (the nickname of Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, the former governor of Jakarta Metropolitan) was just recently promoted as the Chairman of the Board of Pertamina, the Indonesian state-owned oil company, literally the largest company in Indonesia. This was a very high-profile promotion by the govern...

On the Central Bank intervention in the FX market

CHILE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2019

Yesterday the Central Bank of Chile announced a foreign exchange intervention plan of up to US$ 20,000 million, US$ 10,000 million of sales in the spot market and US$ 10,000 million of sales of hedging instruments. International reserves are approximately US$ 40,000 million. The statement publish...

Notes from Ningbo

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Nov 2019

We just spent three days in Ningbo, China’s largest port city, 200 km from Shanghai, visiting finance companies, banks, and regulators. Four quick conclusions: 1) The trade war is having less economic impact, even on a port city, than one would expect. 2) The crackdown on shadow banking and un...

A Lone Ranger, no silver bullets

COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Nov 2019

In the last two months, the Colombian government has lost every single political contest: it declined dramatically in the polls, where president Duque’s favorability is going steadily south; then it was defeated in the regional elections, where Uribe’s party lost its key strongholds; then in the ...

The first round of Constitutional reforms was a failure… but there is hope for a positive outcome next year

PANAMA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The economy is growing slowly but steadily (3.25% through September according to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity). The 2020 budget is consistent with this pattern and therefore will not be expansive, given the limitations of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (a 2.75% deficit ratio for 2020). T...

Economics: Risks for 2020 public finance stability

MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The problems posed by the strict austerity the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has pursued as it strives to sustain its deficit and public debt targets were on clear display not only in public finance results through the first nine months of the year, but also in the 2020 federal spendi...

Politics: AMLO sets his sights on the Electoral Authority

MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

In a pattern that has become apparent to most observers of the recent rise of populist regimes and the manner in which they manage to dismantle democratic institutions and entrench themselves in power, during its first year in power the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been...

EL SALVADOR: They still love him – weak economy and all

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

El Salvador experienced deflation in October, for the third month in a row, while core inflation has remained at virtually zero for the past 12 months. Economic activity continued to gradually slow, as merchandise exports fell, and foreign remittances and lending to the private sector were depres...

Russia tries to increase RUB transactions

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

On November 25 major Russian business newspaper RBK reported that the Ministry of Economic Development is aiming to increase the % of foreign transactions done in RUB from 20% at present to 30% by 2024. In 2019 14% of exports are paid for in RUB and these are mostly to former Soviet countries. 30...