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Politics: Immigration problems not going away
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2019

After many days of uncertainty, Mexico and the United States closed a deal on Central American migration that will, for the time being, prevent the establishment of tariffs on Mexican US-bound exports. The deal calls for more muscular border enforcement in Mexico, including the deployment of 6,00...

Weak growth and monetary easing ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Jun 2019

In a climate of decelerating world growth, with rising risk aversion and a sharp decline in Treasuries yields, we have redone our projections for growth for 2019 and 2020. In them we assume that despite all the political noise, a robust pension reform will be approved, reducing the fiscal risk. A...

Worse Global Scenario and Contagion to Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2019

Since the second half of 2018, the global PMI has been repeatedly reduced, accompanied by a decline of industrial production growth rates, indicating continuing deceleration of world growth. The IMF and World Bank have also frequently revised the expectations for world growth downward for this ye...

We expect a seasonally high CPI in May
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jun 2019

The fiscal deficit stands at 3.8 % GDP LTM, with rapid expenditures and slow tax growth. Wage pressure continues, fueled by a tight labor market. We expect a high CPI print in May (to be published on Friday), at the high end of consensus. Highlights: Wage pressure continues into Q1 2019. - ...

​Final curtain in S-400 crisis
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2019 · 1 response

I must warn my audience that political uncertainty is escalating very rapidly to the stratosphere, while financial markets are unusually calm.This brief is dedicated to the alarming developments at the S-400 front, but according to a new ORC poll, in Istanbul candidates are head-to-head, raising ...

​The state of the union is… worried.
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Jun 2019

When Chilean presidents deliver their annual state of the union speech, they usually list the achievements of the previous year, and announce policies to come. The standard line is, ‘we have achieved much, and there is much left to do’. When President Sebastian Piñera delivered his annual state o...

Central Bank Rate Drop
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Jun 2019

In a quite unprecedented and surprising move, the Central Bank decided to cut the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 50 bp last week, taking it to 2.5%. Pretty much every market analyst, according to Bloomberg’s Survey, expected the Central Bank to keep the rate unchanged. The same was implicit in the...

Political turmoil in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2019

An institutional conflict between the Moldovan Parliament and the Constitutional Court is exposing oligarchs’ leverage on political institutions. After three months of negotiations since the February elections, a government was finally formed in Moldova following a surprising alliance between two...

Ukraine's Parliamentary elections will cause major change
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2019

Ukraine's Rada (Parliament) is scheduled for an election on July 21. The polls conducted on June 3 show that the Rada's composition is due to change radically. A new political party called Servant of the People is on 48%. This is President Zelensky's party. If this party does as well as polls sug...

Russian phone company agrees deal with Huawei
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2019

On June 6 Russia's main mobile phone company MTS signed a 5G deal with Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei. This is in stark contrast to the US refuses to deal with Huawei and is seeking the extradition of a top Huawei executive from Canada on charges of sanctions busting.The Kremlin says the...

The trade war – the Chinese response
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Jun 2019

We analyze the response of China to the trade war in four buckets: politics, macro-economy, global supply chains, and technology. Of the four, China’s technological development and global supply chains are likely to suffer the most. Xi’s political power is weakened The political realm is t...

Further bad news on inflation in May
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2019

The May CPI-inflation data came out this morning. In sum, the long-standing rising trend of the various indicators returned, following the mixed picture seen in April, which was then blurred a bit by a favourable one-month base effect.The headline inflation rate remained at 3.9% yoy, unchanged fr...

​Post-Eid update
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2019

Friday isstill administrative holiday in Turkey, but markets will be open, hence I wanted to update our readers on three matters of import. While the focus of investors may be on S-400s and to a lesser extent on Istanbul elections, it is important to begin with the growing humanitarian crisis in ...

South Africa’s current account deficit widens in the first quarter of 2019 as export volumes drop
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Jun 2019

Yet more unsavory economic numbers have emerged this week (i.e., following the announced contraction of Q1 2019 GDP by 3.2%) as data released today indicates that South Africa’s current account is in worse shape than it was at the end of 2018. The deficit of the current account of the balance of ...

Ukrainian President meets EU leaders
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2019

On June 4 and 5 President Zelensky of Ukraine met EU and NATO leaders in Brussels. He was speaking about the long term goal of EU membership. His defeated presidential rival Poroshenko also shares this goal. There are legislative elections this fall so both are setting out their stall. Zelensky's...

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