GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Finally it happened! Verkhovna Rada has just approved law on land reform in first reading with 240 votes (226 needed). The draft law presumes free agri-land circulation. Land could be owned by individuals and legal entities. Foreigners are not allowed to own agri-land plots till 2024. There is a ...

Manufacturing a political crisis

COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Nov 2019 · 1 response

By Latin American standards, Colombia was doing well, led by a pro-market, pro-business leader, who, despite his lack of experience in everyday domestic politics, was known for trying to avoid confrontation and distancing his administration from pork-barrel politics; who intended forcefully to be...

Monetary Policy – The SELIC in the Easing Cycle Final Phases

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Nov 2019

With 12-month inflation significantly below the lower bound of the target interval, all the core IPCA rates highly stable and below the target, inflation expectations anchored, and the economy still lethargic, the Central Bank reduced the SELIC rate to 5% and indicated that at the next COPOM meet...

Russia relaxed about terrorism case against it

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2019

On November 8 Ukraine filed a case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Russia. Ukraine says that Russia has funded terrorism which is against international law. The pro-Russian rebels are not fighting for a sovereign state. Ukraine's argument is that unlawful violence is terrorism...

Trump associate trying to buy Ukrainian aerospace company

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2019

On November 6 it emerged that Erik Prince is negotiating to buy a Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer. The US is striving to prevent the company from being bought by the Chinese. The company is Motor Sich. Erik Prince is an informal Trump adviser and he is the founder of Blackwater the private secur...

October inflation figures represent a moderate surprise on the upside

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

CPI-inflation for October came out today at 0.6% mom, 2.9% yoy, the latter up from 2.8% in the previous month. The analyst consensus for the yoy rate was in the range of 2.7-2.8%, and our forecast was 2.7%. This moderate negative surprise was mainly blamed on food prices (up 0.8% mom on the globa...

Rumor that Russia will reduce share of USD in National Wealth Fund

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

On November 7 media stories appeared saying it is rumored that Russia will cut the share of USD in its sovereign reserves. An anonymous source in the Ministry of Finance was cited. The government is changing the fund's structure with a view to improving the pension system. Russia has been de-doll...

Polarization likely to remain intense and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver a set of post-Pension Reform proposals to Congress. Pre-salt auctions take place on Wednesday. The Senate may vote on the Parallel Pension Reform proposal, which includes states and municipalities. On Thursday, the Federal Supreme Court resumes discussion on ...

Davids beat the Goliaths

COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Many an analyst is puzzled that the Central Bank has been holding interest rates constant, while its regional counterparts have started cutting. And the fact that the Bank’s next move next year might be a hike is considered by some to add insult to injury. But we don’t see a puzzle: Colombia is i...

Russia launches icebreaker warship

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019

On October 25 Russia announced the existence of a new combat icebreaker named Ivan Papanin. The purpose of the vessel is to defend the Russian Arctic. Earlier in October over 12 000 troops participated in nuclear war drills in the Russian Far North. Russian claims some of the Arctic Shelf althoug...

It is official, Alberto Fernández is the new president-elect

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...

E-day

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

Today’s results of the general elections in Argentina, which are expected to be published between 9 pm and midnight, will put an end to the political limbo that emerged after the surprising result of the primaries in August. The electoral outlook that had been previously nourished by polls, drast...

Bank of Russia cuts interest rates

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

On October 25 the Bank of Russia cut the interest rate to 6.5%. The atmosphere of low inflation, poor domestic growth and the distinct possibility of a worldwide economic slowdown all contributed to the decision. The previous interest rate was 7%. The bank also cited the government's tardiness is...

Policy debates and poor implementation in South Africa are further delaying economic recovery

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Oct 2019

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Recovery of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019 helped to contain the growing pessimism regarding the South African (SA) economy. Not only did GDP growth surprise on the upside, but it also meant an aversion of a second technical recession in...

South Africa’s main opposition party in a leadership crisis as three leaders resign in one week

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Oct 2019

South Africa’s main opposition party is the Democratic Alliance (DA), and yesterday its leader, Mmusi Maimane, resigned as party leader. His resignation follows this week’s earlier resignation by DA’s Herman Mashaba as mayor of Johannesburg (the country’s most prosperous region), of which the DA ...