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Russia sticking to fiscal discipline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2020

On May 21 Finance Minister Siluanov stated that he will not relax the fiscal rule. The rule states that oil revenues over USD 42 p b are put into the National Welfare Fund (NWF). When oil prices are below USD 42 p b the NWF makes up the shortfall in the budget. Many have urged the government to a...

Bolsonaro Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2020

The video does not strengthen impeachment. The release of the April 22 cabinet meeting is not the oft-discussed “silver bullet” for Pres. Jair Bolsonaro, though it could lead to inconvenient consequences. For now, the accusations leveled by former Minister of Justice Sergio Moro of crimes comm...

Excerpts from the cabinet meeting video released so far reinforce Bolsonaro’s narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2020

​The Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Celso de Mello, released practically the entire video of the ministerial cabinet meeting that took place on April 22, pointed out by former minister Sergio Moro as proof that President Jair Bolsonaro tried to intervene politically in the Federal P...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues at much lower yields, lockdowns intensify for Eid
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 May 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Coronavirus growth decelerated regionally but worries about spread due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday led to an intensification of lockdo...

An island of stability — but for how long?
UKRAINE · Report · 22 May 2020

Ukraine is going through something quite unusual: its economy remains an island of stability, in the midst of the global COVID-19 storm. Most likely the big blow is still ahead. However, right now the balance of trade is improving, on the back of strong demand for food exports, the currency is st...

Beijing abandons a 2020 GDP growth target
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 May 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Li Keqiang announced that Beijing would not set a GDP growth target for 2020. • If this represents a real change in economic policy-making going forward, this would be a good sign that Beijing is ready to let go of a development policy that condemns ...

Moral hazard and the mysterious “keepwell” agreements
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 May 2020

The two dominant themes of Chinese economic policy over the past several years have been the growing use of private capital for state ends, and more recently, a reluctance to engage in a large-scale “Chinese QE.” Concerns about excess state debt have been imprinted on Xi Jinping by economic head ...

South Africa webinar featuring Iraj Abedian: Socio-economic preconditions and the Covid-19 crisis
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2020

Iraj Abedian examines South Africa’s ability to cope with the coronavirus crisis based on its current macro and fiscal situation.

Peru launch webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne: Peru macro outlook at the time of the coronavirus
PERU · Report · 22 May 2020

Alfredo Thorne discusses the choices facing the government, which is at a crossroads between fighting the virus and reviving the economy in the face of the pandemic.

Russian national projects stalling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 21 the Secretary of the National Security Council said that corruption is hampering the national projects. Procurement rules are not being adhered to. Work is sometimes badly executed or incomplete and account are falsified. Volga District is especially bad and USD 105 million would have b...

Progress in Bolsonaro’s relationship with state governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro’s video conference with state governors was an important institutional advance amid the health and economic crisis resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Bolsonaro and the governors momentarily set aside the differences to sign two important agreements: 1. The...

Industry contracts in April amid the lockdown, but with now surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

According to Rosstat Industrial output contracted in April by 6.6% y-o-y and 9.2% m-o-m, which can be treated as a relatively good outcome compared to many other countries. In March, for instance, the industry in the EU and Euro area posted double-digit dive both in y-o-y and m-o-m. Note that in ...

US pulls out of Open Skies accusing Russia of breaches
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 21 the United States said that it would pull out of the Open Skies treaty because Russia is breaking it. There are 35 signatories of the treaty. The US will leave in November 2020. The treaty was signed in 2002. It permits signatories to fly surveillance flights over each others' land. The...

50 bps – that’s the new interest rate cut by the South Africa Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2020

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is cutting the benchmark interest rate following today’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s scheduled May meeting. The repo rate is being cut by 50 basis points following the 200 bps cuts implemented from end-March ...

Belarusian president disqualifies opponent
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2020

On May 19 the leader of Belarus' main opposition party has been barred from standing in the presidential election scheduled for August 9 2020. Mikalay Statkevich has been forbidden to run for election because of a previous conviction. He served a jail term for organizing riots. 10 of the 55 who t...

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