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The new head of the NBU talks about further prime rate decline
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2020

On July 20th President Zelenskiy introduced the new head of the NBU, Kyryl Shevchenko. As his first message, Mr. Shevchenko mentioned (a) intensified credit for economic activity revival, (b) reduction of the NPL portfolio, (c) macro-financial stability, and (d) intensified cooperation with inter...

Improvement in the government’s popularity to help the reform agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2020

The new XP/Ipespe poll, published today and carried out from July 13-15, shows an improvement in the popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro. Although the government’s negative (bad/very bad) rating is 45%, there is a clear downward trend. In the last two months, the negative index has fallen by 5...

Tax Reform: Will it happen now? and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2020

The main topic of the week is Tax Reform, the first phase of which will be delivered to the Congress by the government on Tuesday. The proposal unifies the PIS and Cofins taxes. The Lower House will function only​ on Monday and Tuesday, and may vote on the constitutional amendment that extends th...

Politics: An insufficient new National Security Plan
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2020

President López Obrador has long argued that his security proposals constitute a “new paradigm” that break with the actions of the two presidential administrations that preceded him and incorporate general aspects of his political project, an approach embedded in both the government’s national de...

The Good Performance of Exports
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jul 2020

Even with a weaker real exchange rate than the average during the period since the Real Plan (1994 to date), there was no way to expect Brazilian exports to expand in 2020 in a period of deep global recession. However, the slow pace of the recent decline has been surprising. The reason is the hig...

Can Hungary resist the global trend of Covid-19?
HUNGARY · Forecast · 20 Jul 2020

The outlook for the Covid-19 pandemic has greatly deteriorated over the last two months. Contrary to earlier expectations that the epidemic would recede during the summer though it might return when the weather gets colder in the Northern Hemisphere, the current prospect is continuous further spr...

Economics: A powerless energy program
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2020

The government has rolled out its energy sector program for the remainder of the administration that offers nothing encouraging. The haphazard way it seems to have been slapped together and its failure to address a vast array of essential issues is probably a good indication of the extent to whic...

Initial signs of growth deceleration
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jul 2020

There are increasing indicators pointing to weakening activity due to increasing restrictions on the economy; this trend is expected to continue in the short run. June’s CPI (-0.1% m/m and -1.1% y/y) came in according to expectations; core inflation (-0.5% y/y) remains well below target. Today th...

A lot of nothing
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The politics update you will soon be gazing at on your screens is penned with an extraordinary lack of enthusiasm, even an adrenaline drain, which left the politics author lethargic to the point of falling asleep on his keyboard. The 30-year veteran nevertheless rises up the challenge of producin...

Initial signs of growth deceleration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 20.7.20: Recent data suggests that growth has taken a downturn in July: Credit card purchases declined by 5% in the first two weeks of July. The Google Mobility Index points to declining activity in shopping/leisure as well as going to work. The Poalim PM...

KUWAIT: Emir suffers health scare just as credit rating put on negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2020

The 91-year old emir underwent undisclosed surgery on Saturday. The key question is when succession will happen and who will be the next crown prince. This all comes as difficulties in fiscal reform and determining how to finance the deficit have resulted in a series of rating actions, including ...

Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2020

Fighting between Armenia and AzerbaijanOn July 17 Russia offered to act as a mediator in peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two Caucasian countries have been firing across the border for 3 days and this has claimed at least 18 lives.Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Trea...

Debate on taxing electronic transactions shows signs of resistance
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2020

The initial debate on some items of tax reform, such as taxation on electronic transactions, defended by the economic team, already shows the first signs of resistance in the debate. Today, in an interview with “Rádio Gaúcha”, Vice President Hamilton Mourão said that he considers a new tax on ...

New head of Ukrainian National Bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

On July 16 the president nominated Kyrylo Shevchenko to be head of NBU. He previously headed Ukrgasbank which is state run. The appointment has been confirmed by parliament.

The Russian economy in 1H20: Strong rebound in some sectors in June, a few others to catch up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2020

Rosstat reported that retail trade bounced back in June by 15.8% m-o-m (not seasonally adjusted) which pulled y-o-y figure to -7.7%, i.e., well above the initially reported -19.1% and -23.2% May and April figures. The 1H20 y-o-y tally was down by 6.4% with prospects of some recovery in 2H20. The ...

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