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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

At the end of an era, searching for new directions...
TURKEY · Presentation · 17 Dec 2018

Turkey’s growth model looks as if it has run out of steam, with recent developments indicating that this phase is looking different (for the worse). We look at Turkey’s recent economic history and give a summary of the country’s current situation. Outline: • A little history, context, summ...

An attack, new money, and a strangely strong Hryvnia
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The IMF Executive Board has added Ukraine to its agenda for a December 18th meeting. Since the government has done all of its homework, expectations are positive. The only uncertainty is the size of the next tranche. The EU has already wired €500 million under its new Macro Financial Assistance p...

Inflation expectations move higher on planned price hikes and weaker shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Dec 2018

November's CPI (1.2% y/y) came in slightly lower than expected, and core inflation declined to 0.8% y/y. We see inflation reaching 1.3% in 2019 on a slightly weaker shekel and a steady increase in housing rentals. Although the CA surplus surprised on the upside (reaching 2% GDP in Q318), FX deman...

Trade surpluses: High also in 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The mercantilist view that high trade surpluses are good for Brazil collapses when considering that their growth since the end of 2015 has largely been due to the reduction of imports, generated by the precipitous decline of fixed capital investments. Exports have also grown in the period, benefi...

​On Syria and domestic tensions: Political risk is rising
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2018

Since my last comments on Turkey’s stated intention to invade North East Syria, it made irrevocable commitments to carry out its promise. Negotiations with White House are presumably underway, which will delay the execution the military campaign, but room for compromise is very narrow. At the end...

Mexico's president in search for lost credibility
MEXICO · In Brief · 16 Dec 2018

As you know the economic and fiscal package was submitted yesterday to Mexican Congress. It is expected to be approved by sometime next week with no maor changes. In general it is designed to preserve economic stabilty next year, after consider loss of confidence by cancelling Mexico City new air...

Ukrainian ports almost deserted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2018

Since Ukrainian warships were seized by Russia in November traffic to and from the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk has almost stopped. Russia allows merchant ships to sail through the Kerch Strait that connects the ports to the Black Sea. However, inspections in the Kerch Strait often cause delay...

Autocephaly of Ukrainian Church
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2018

Yesterday, on December 15, gathering of Ukrainian clerics established independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church and elected a 39-year-old Metropolitan Epifaniy as the leader of the new church. That was a historical event, see for more details “Ukrainian church to receive Independence: Russia might es...

Russian Central Bank hikes key rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2018

On 14 December the Russian Central Bank (CBR) raised the key rate by 25 basis points. It is not 7.7%. The bank noted the danger of short term inflation and the possibility of US sanctions prompted the move. This moved surprised many. From 15 January 2019 the bank shall recommence foreign currency...

​Russian Ministry of Finance plans to restrict regional debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2018

In Russia, regional governments will not be permitted to spend over 10% of their budgets on servicing debt. The Ministry of Finance will place further restrictions on regions that it regards as overly indebted. Some of the poorer regions have borrowed heavily and have debts over 100% of GDP. Solu...

The NBU keeps policy rate unchanged at 18%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2018

On Dec 13, the NBU Board decided to leave policy rate unchanged at 18.0%. The Board ignored Kerch Strait crisis and treated easily still strong inflation (+1.4% m/m or 10% y/y) sine the large part of November CPI growth was driven by a 23.5% gas tariffs’ increase. Positive signals from the IMF (t...

“Our proposal has been misunderstood”
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Dec 2018 · 1 response

President Iván Duque recently gave an interview to a Cali radio station as part of an effort to counter the negative (to put it mildly) press coverage that both student protests and his tax reform proposal have attracted. The president contended that his tax plan had been “misunderstood.” Indeed,...

Inflation closes at 2.2 million percent in 2018
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2018

We adjusted down our August-November 2018 inflation series reflecting new data available. As a result, our inflation forecast for December goes down to 198.7 percent % and the 2018 year-on-year rate closes at 2.2 million percent for 2018. This annual forecast is significantly lower than the proje...

MPC: Policy rate kept at 24%, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2018

In line with the market consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 24% (simple) today, at the last meeting of the year. Recall that after raising the policy rate by 625 bps at its September meeting (on September 13th), the Bank had kept ...

The capital of the Russian Far East will be shifted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2018

On 10 December President Putin announced that the capital of the Far Eastern Region will be shifted from Khabarovsk to Vladivostok. Vladivostok is the southernmost Russian Pacific port. It does a lot of trade with Japan and North Korea. By contrast Khabarovsk does more trade with China.

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