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No budget for 2019… yet
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Jan 2019

2018 ended with congress failing to pass the executive’s proposed 2019 national budget, the result of an apparent spat between the two co-equal branches of government. The disagreement started back in mid-2018 on the technical issue of the executive’s proposed “cash” vs. previous years’ “obligati...

The government sector balance was close to zero again in January-September 2018
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2019

KSH reported the government sector balance, by ESA-2010, i.e. on accrual basis, at a deficit of 0.4% of GDP for the first three quarters of 2018. This was in fact almost the same number as the 0.6% of GDP actual recorded in January-September 2017. The message is that government finances have inde...

Powerful across-the-board growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Jan 2019

Real GDP growth for 2018 should come in at 7%, the Central Bank reported, after expansions of 6.8% in October, 7.2% in November and 7.1% (estimated) in December. Growth was strong across sectors, with communications, construction, free zones and heath particularly robust. Accumulated inflation...

Five major challenges that shook India’s economy in 2018
INDIA · In Brief · 03 Jan 2019

As a service to our clients, we are reproducing this Op-Ed by Ila Patnaik, which appeared in ThePrint on December 29, 2018. From GST to RBI to NPAs, both institutions and governance had a turbulent ride. The year 2018 saw significant challenges for the Indian economy. Implementation of the GST, a...

Inflation ends the year not as high as feared, but pretty high nevertheless
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2019

Consumer prices dropped by 0.4% in December, broadly in line with consensus forecasts, ending the year at 20.3%, y/y, further down from 21.6% in November and a peak of 25.2% in October, which, incidentally, corresponds to the worst yearend performance since 2002, when we were in an entirely diffe...

Winter is coming to China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Jan 2019

Recent data on employment and investment in fixed assets suggests a modest stimulus will lead to improvements in China’s economy. However, a closer look at local polls, along with other research, indicates that employment is much weaker than stated in the official data. Because macro data tend...

Comedian Zelenskiy to run for presidency
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Jan 2019 · 2 responses

On the New Year night comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced his decision to run for presidency in real. He spoke on TV channel 1+1 which belongs to oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy at the time when President Petro Poroshenko was making his traditional New Year speech for Ukrainians. This move was arran...

Russian fashion industry stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2019

In 2018 the Russian market for fashion stagnated after several years of growth. Sales totaled RUR 2.6 Trillion. Inflation has led to consumer goods rising 4% in price. Falling incomes have led to consumers switching to mass market brands. This is true of clothes, shoes and accessories. Modis, Aus...

​President Medina makes his mark in the Constitutional Court
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Dec 2018

President Medina has just left his mark in the Constitutional Court. As mandated by the Constitution, four of the thirteen judges that make up that court were replaced, and as expected, the new appointees changed the balance of power within the court. Although Medina did not manage to get full co...

Fiscal consolidation expected following the elections, including tax hikes
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Dec 2018

PC indicators point to some acceleration in Q418, compared to Q3. The labor market remains tight, supportive of wage pressure. Israeli institutions are increasing the FX exposure in their portfolios. Fiscal consolidation is expected following the elections, which is likely to include higher taxe...

​Turkey in Syria: A realignment, more than an opportunity or risk
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2018

I thought the best New Year’s gift to our audience will be to leave them alone during the festive season, because most political news from Turkey is bad news. Alas, the tradition continues and I must end the year with the prediction of the “first crisis in 2019”.As much as the word crisis is over...

Relatively good news for inflation: statutory minimum wages were announced for 2019-2020
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2018

Finance minister Varga announced this morning that statutory minimum wages will be raised by 8% both in 2019 (starting from January) and in 2020. This refers to both existing wage thresholds, the lower one for unskilled labor and a higher one maintained for unskilled labor alike. The news came af...

Russian Government approves VEB recapitalization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2018

Prime Minister Medvedev announced that VEB.RF will be recapitalized through subscription capital. VEB is a state corporation. VEB will now be a ''project financing factory''. Igor Shuvalov is its head and he plans to reduce its staff from 8000 to 3000.

Economy in 2018, in pictures
TURKEY · Report · 28 Dec 2018

• We have decided to revive an old tradition of ours in this final report of the year, that of looking at the economics of the full year, (mostly) in pictures -- hoping that you’ll find it useful. • Needless to say, 2018 was a very tough year especially for Turkey, as an emerging market-unfriend...

Ending 2018 with confidence
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Dec 2018

The month of December 2018 is set to end with greater confidence. Indonesian President Joko Widodo inaugurated the last stretches of the Trans Java toll road on December 20, 2018, and on the following day holiday travelers started to utilize the road happily. Many Indonesians celebrate Christmas ...

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