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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Limits to China’s fiscal stimulus
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The debate about 2020 growth expectations continues to intensify in policymaking circles, with CICC reducing its 2020 GDP growth forecast last week from 6.1 percent to 2.6 percent. • While many officials continue to call for China to return as quickl...

The Recession Depth and Fiscal Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2020

There are two possible reactions to the propagation of the COVID-19: impose social distancing (lockdown), which attenuates the loss of lives; or allow it to evolve until producing “herd immunity”, which happens when the number of people who have been infected is large enough that the virus cannot...

Deflation appears likely in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Mar 2020

With a partial lockdown in effect (and tightening), a sharp recession is expected in the second quarter at minimum. Inflation is expected to be negative this year due to weak demand, lower rental prices and lower energy prices. A unity government is likely to facilitate budget approval and a more...

U.S. indictments escalate pressures
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2020

On March 26, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed indictments against 14 members of the Maduro regime, including Nicolás Maduro, Diosdado Cabello, Maikel Moreno, Chief Justice of the Supreme Tribunal, and Vladimir Padrino, minister of Defense. Charges include money laundering, drug trafficking...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 8%-9% GDP this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

The fiscal deficit is like reach 8%-9% GDP this year. We are taking into account the following assumptions: Israel was running an underlying deficit of around 3.0%-3.5% before the crisis, if we ignore the demands and past legislation which would have pushed this deficit even higher. This addition...

Deflation appears likely in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

Highlights of our weekly macro report: The Employment Agency is reporting a huge increase in the demand for unemployment benefits. Unemployment is expected to reach 20%. We are revising our inflation forecast down to -0.3% in the NTM. This downward revision is due to the recession, lower energy p...

Minister of finance and Minister of healthcare resign
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Mar 2020

Minister of finance, Igor Umanskiy and Minister of healthcare, Ilya Yemets have resigned, according to Facebook page of Iryna Gerashchenko, an MP from European Solidarity. Several media confirmed that candidates for the vacant posts have been interviewed today by MPs from Servant of the People. M...

Health and economic anxiety escalating
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2020 · 2 responses

Turkey begins a critical week in its battle against the COVID-19, as the rise in patients reach the stage of explosive growth. At an estimated rate of cases doubling every three days, Turkey could report as many as 30K patients by the end of next week, which would overwhelm the health system. Pre...

Kazakhstan struggling to contain coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2020

On March 29 Kazakhstan ordered lockdown of its fifth city Temirtau which is the location of a steel plant run by Arcelor Mittal. The country has 265 cases. Nur Sultan City, Almaty, Shymkent and Karaganda are already locked down. On March 29 it was announced that the country would use its National...

Turkmenistan silent on coronavirus as food prices skyrocket
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2020

Turkmenistan sealed off its capital city Ashbagbat on March 20. Food prices were reported to be rising sharply on March 25. There are government food stores with official prices. However, these stores often run out of foodstuffs very quickly. People are forced to buy from private food stores wher...

Coronavirus: Government launches measures to help small and medium-sized companies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2020

The presidents of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, Caixa Econômica Federal, Pedro Guimarães, and BNDES, Gustavo Montezano, announced a series of measures to help small and medium-sized companies, in addition to people economically affected by the coronavirus. The creation of an emergency...

Ukraine declares state of emergency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

On 24 March Ukraine declared a state of emergency over coronavirus. 218 people have been diagnosed with the disease which is a rise of 62 in one day. Only 5 people have died thus far. After Kyiv it is Chernivtsi Region that is the hardest hit. Quarantine has been prolonged until April 14. On Marc...

Covid-19 positives reached 528 as the economy paralyze
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

This morning, the Ministry of Public Health reported that the total number of positive cases for Covid-19 is 528, 93 more than yesterday (March 25) and 189 more than the previous day. 20 people have died from Covid-19 related conditions, twice as many as yesterday, and three have recovered. The i...

Coping with the coronavirus threat
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Mar 2020

In Guatemala, President Alejandro Giammattei, who took office on January 14th, is facing what will likely be the toughest challenge of his term. The coronavirus pandemic has already reached Guatemala, and the short-term outlook for the country is changing dramatically. Until February, we expect...

Covid-19 and India
INDIA · Report · 27 Mar 2020

In this report, we focus on how India is different from the trajectory of Covid 19 as seen in (say) the US. We start on this problem in the context of a weak economy and financial system. There is low state capacity, including in the field of public health. The data shows 24,254 persons tested...

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