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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tension between Russia and South Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2019

South Korea accused Russian warplanes of violating its airspace on July 24. The South Korean Air Force claimed to have fired warning shots at the Russian jets. Moscow vehemently denied any such incident took place. The Russian Air Force was certainly conducting a joint exercise with the Chinese i...

South Africa’s economy – still struggling to take off
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 25 Jul 2019

* South Africa’s growth: President Ramaphosa’s number one priority is to stimulate the South African economy, an economy that has been in the doldrums, growing by less than 2% in the past five years. This is especially important as some of the country’s main socio-economic scourges have either...

​CBRT opens up easing round with 425 pips
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2019

As our economics guru Dr Murat Ucer is in transit, his acolyte Atilla Yesilada is reporting on CBRT MPC decision. It may have surprised the participants in sundry polls which anticipated 200-250 basis point rate cut, but didn’t surprise us (we penciled in 300-350, with an upside bias), when CBRT ...

OMAN: Fiscal silence ends with lower deficit and a likely issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2019

After months of disconcerting silence on fiscal data, Oman has announced a surprising improvement in its deficit, Fitch has affirmed its rating and the Sultanate has seized the opportunity to promptly appoint bankers for a new bond issuance. We doubt the fiscal outturn for the rest of 2019 will b...

Xi promises more openness
CHINA · Report · 24 Jul 2019

GDP rose 6.2% y/y in Q2, down 0.2 pps from Q1. Industrial output rose 5.6% y/y, down 0.9 pps, but notably, was up 6.3% y/y in June, obviously higher than in April and May. We judge the unusually high June growth to be a seasonal phenomenon, and unsustainable. Fixed asset investment was up 5.5%...

​Hotel Transition at Crossroads
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Our muses permitting, in a few days, the Global Source Partners Turkey team will issue its flagship Quarterly Report. By its very design the Quarterly is concise and forward-looking. The humble Politics Author felt the need to explain his view of the coming 12 monthsin detail to make sure nothing...

Lower inflation and incipient recovery improves economic prospects
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 23 Jul 2019

Monthly inflation fell from 4.7% in March to 2.7% in June. Early indicators, based on online prices, suggest that monthly inflation may end July at close to 2%. And economic activity indicators, though still in negative territory compared with 2018, show improvements with respect to Q1 2019. This...

Today's rate-setting meeting was almost a non-event
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jul 2019

The Monetary Council made sure that today's monthly rate-setting meeting became genuinely uninteresting, but that was fully in line with everyone's expectation. The Council did not take any action on this occasion, and its statement became slightly more relaxed than a month ago.The statement took...

COSTA RICA: Lower GDP growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 23 Jul 2019

The Central Bank of Costa Rica revised its GDP growth estimates lower for 2019 and 2020, to 2.2% and 2.6% respectively, from 3.2% and 3.0% forecast at the beginning of the year. According to the Bank, a series of external and domestic events affected the growth rate of the economy. Among these ar...

Tourist arrivals declined in June
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Jul 2019

The Central Bank has just published the official figures for the number of tourist arrivals for the month of June. There is much fear that the negative information that has circulated in the international press about the Dominican Republic as a tourist destination as a result of unfortunate and u...

High unemployment: don’t blame the Venezuelans
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Jul 2019

What started as a minor concern likely to correct itself has now become one of the greatest sources of concern, for the government and analysts alike. But the government seems to be ignoring the real problems plaguing the labor market, and therefore the solutions it will propose probably won’t be...

President Medina gave up on re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019 · 1 response

In a speech to the Nation, President Danilo Medina announced that he will not seek re-election. Therefore, there won't be any attempt to amend the Constitution. In our reading, although he did not recognize it, the President surrendered to the circumstances and accepted that he had no chance of a...

The roads are closing to re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

This is a crucial week in DR politics and the prospects for re-election are looking very bleak. It seems increasingly difficult to achieve it, and Medina is left with few alternatives. These are the facts: 1. The Medina group has not managed, so far, to get the votes it needs to pass a constituti...

The ball is in the Senate’s court and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2019

The government announces economic stimulus measures. On Tuesday, it launches a program for the new market for natural gas. The next day, it announces permission for FGTS and PIS/PASEP withdrawals. The publication of a decree that allows for the returning of concessions that are financially in tro...

Economics: Investor and consumer debt aversions
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2019

Over the past year Mexican consumers and investors have grown increasingly cautious when it comes to taking on new debt as they brace for the potential ramifications of risks at home and abroad. The amount of financing entering the Mexican economy appeared to have been essentially flat during the...

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