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Ukraine launches its biggest ever incursion into Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2024

On August 6 Ukraine sent hundreds of troops and at least 10 tanks across the border into the Kursk Region. There have been many incursions by Ukraine since 2022 but they have all been smaller scale and most lasted only a few hours. Ukraine attacked an airbase containing some of Russia's best plan...

GULF WEEKLY: PMIs fall across the GCC, oil rebounds from an 8-month low, Bahrain revises GDP, mediators push to revive Gaza talks as the region awaits Iranian retaliation against Israel
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Aug 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded to $79, after touching an 8-month low, but the EIA cut its demand forecast. * PMIs fell across the Gulf, with Qatar down by the most, while the UAE and KSA hit multi-year lows. * Aramco’s Q2 earnings were ...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge has weakened in recent months but still looks too strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Aug 2024

The National Bank of Kazakhstan recently published its first estimate of the 2Q24 balance of payments, which revealed that after briefly showing a surplus in 1Q24 the current account balance once again turned red. Being negative is the more usual condition for the Kazakh current account as the in...

Next week the House may vote on the Tax Reform regulation bill, the Senate may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill, and the STF may adjudicate the appeal regarding health insurance payment increases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2024

In the House, the highlight next week will be the attempt to vote on the second bill on Tax Reform regulation, which deals with the Management Committee. The rapporteur is Deputy Mauro Benevides Filho (PDT-CE). In the Senate, efforts continue to try to vote on the payroll tax exemption. The text ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's natural gas trade deficit worsens significantly in 1H24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Aug 2024

Uzbekistan transitioned into a net gas importer status in 2023. We have analyzed in detail the reasons for that phenomenon elsewhere, stressing the strong structural underpinnings of this transition, but the full trade data for the first half of the year allows us to evaluate the evolution of net...

Inflation report: a few thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 08 Aug 2024 · 1 response

The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year. The Bank kept the 2024 and 2025 yearend inflation forecasts unchanged at 38% (between 34% and 42%) and 14% (between 7% and 21%), respectively. The 2026 forecast is also the same as in the previous report, at 9%.

Upside CPI-inflation surprise in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2024

CPI-inflation was reported at 0.7% mom, 4.1% yoy for July, the latter up from 3.7% yoy in June. Core inflation accelerated even more sharply, from 4.1% yoy in June to 4.7% yoy in July, on the same 0.7% mom average increase in core prices, as for the headline rate. Note: Year-on-year changes in pe...

The Senate will try to vote on three matters next week, the STF may decide to extend the payroll tax exemption on August 16, and Pacheco will meet with the rapporteurs of the carbon market bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2024

The first week of sessions in the Senate involved a lot of negotiation but little voting. Everything was postponed to next week. In other words, it is evident that the municipal elections are likely to hinder activities in both Houses, even with a reduced agenda. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) h...

The fiscal deficit pushes higher, 2025 expected to be challenging
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Aug 2024

The fiscal deficit climbed higher in July to 8.1% GDP in the LTM, up from 7.7% last month. Total expenditure is up 32.8% y/y since the beginning of the year, and up 8.7% excluding spending due to the war (above the 4.9% allocated spending in the budget). Tax revenues are up 3.9% since the beginni...

Bi-Weekly Economic news summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Aug 2024

Jul 29 Government: Kazakhstan has extended the ban on the import of wheat by all means of transport until the end of 2024. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan produced 44.7 mln tons of oil in 1H24. In 2023 as a whole, it extracted 90 mln tons. CPC: The company put one of the three of its oil-filling devi...

Unimpressive industry and retail sales figures once again in June and Q2
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2024

Industrial output grew 0.5% mom but fell 3.8% yoy in June, following -4.7% yoy in May. Retail sales fell 0.1% mom but grew 2.6% yoy in the same month, after 3.4% yoy expansion in May. For sure, these figures could be blamed partially on volatility between months, so it may be better to look at qu...

The minutes of the Copom meeting caused political repercussions, Pacheco said the payroll tax bill will not be voted upon this week, and the Tax Reform regulation bill will be discussed in the CCJ
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2024

The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting included indications of interest rate hikes, causing political repercussions. On social media, the national president of the PT, Gleisi Hoffmann, stated that the minutes are "a slap in the face of the country." In an interview, the Pres...

Lost Horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2024

The Minutes of the last Copom meeting maintained, or rather deepened, the tough tone already displayed in the statement following the meeting in which the Committee decided to maintain the interest rate at 10.50%, to such an extent that it seems like a document explaining why it would have raised...

Peace talks?
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Aug 2024

There’s been lots of talk about a potential peace deal. Ukrainian sentiments on the issue are murky. While polls show a growing demand for a peace deal, the majority of respondents still reject any territorial concessions to Russia. Moreover, an overwhelming majority—77.3%—would agree to peace wi...

The Senate may discuss the payroll tax relief bill tomorrow, Lula may announce the new Central Bank president before the municipal elections, and CGU and STN employees go on strike today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2024

The Senate's agenda for this week has been released. On Wednesday, the bill on payroll tax relief may be analyzed. There is still no agreement, so the possibility of postponement cannot be ruled out. Today, the Estadão published an article about the government's efforts to advance the appointment...

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