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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Tax reform: down to the wire (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Nov 2017
The Senate finally passed yesterday its tax reform bill (Senate Bill 1592) on third and final reading. Even though the press release headlined a P160-billion expected yield, it left many, including the technocrats in the Department of Finance unimpressed, mainly because senators introduced certai...
China should not liberalize the economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Nov 2017 · 6 responses
Special points to highlight in this issue: • There are two different reform programs proposed for China which are often conflated, but in fact the two programs are very different and in conflict. • The mainstream reform program consists of reforming institutions in order to enhance productivit...
Three banks cited in Iran sanctions case
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2017 · 2 responses
With jury selection completed, and Reza Zarrab officially out of the defendants list, the re-named “People of America vs. Hakan Atilla”, or the Iran sanctions trial will take start on Tuesday at 5:30 pm Turkish time, according to the Turkish press. Jurors have been briefed that three Turkish bank...
Week of November 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2017
Negotiations between the Executive and Legislative around Pension Reform will continue. The Lower House and Senate will try to vote on provisional measures that deal with rural debt and the creation of a regulatory agency for the mining sector; both expire on Tuesday, November 28. Important econo...
Economics: Positive Signs from Nafta Round 5
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2017
The fifth round of the Nafta renegotiations proved to be something of an improvement over the stalemate of the previous round, which had heightened pessimism about the pact’s fate. Negotiators made progress on technical details that are the bedrock of the trade pact. Canada and especially Mexico ...
2017-2019 forecast: a crumbling economy and Maduro in power
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2017
Our 2017–2019 forecast sees the economy crumbling, hyperinflation setting in, and Maduro's policies staying in place. GDP falls by a quarter over our forecast horizon, and inflation approaches 23,000 percent by 2019. Oil output and exports continue to slip, but the current account becomes positiv...
Politics: More Pieces of of the 2018 Puzzle in Place
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2017
The next two weeks are shaping up to be decisive for the 2018 electoral process, and parties will have sorted out by mid December the procedures through which they will select their nominees for office. With Andrés Manuel López Obrador having a lock on the nomination of his center-left Morena...
A big jump in cement sales
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2017
The Indonesian economy displayed a slight improvement in Q3 2017, posting a rate of growth of 5.06%, which was modestly better than the 5.01% achieved in Q2 2017. At the same time, the Business Tendency Index also showed increased optimism compared with the previous quarter. One interesting fact ...
Definition in the PRI candidate
MEXICO · In Brief · 27 Nov 2017
The long wait has ended. After much speculation and rumors, this morning José Antonio Meade made official his resignation to the post of Minister of the Treasury to pursue the candidacy of the PRI to the presidency of the Republic. In the same announcement, President Peña named José Antonio Gonzá...
Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 27 Nov 2017
The revenues of non-finance non-oil companies appear to be growing at around 4-5%, nominal annualized. Profitability remains weak. In the aggregate, interest payments are growing faster than revenues or profits. However, there is increased divergence in a two-speed economy, with an upper tail th...
External Sector
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2017
After a sequence of 10 years running current account deficits, small surpluses have started to appear (based on seasonally adjusted monthly numbers). The most intense movement is in the trade balance, whose strong surpluses are a consequence of the decrease of imports provoked by the extremely lo...
Our Winter of Discontent
TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2017
As Reza Zarrab is believed to be cooperating with the prosecution, odds of a guilty verdict in the Iranian sanctions case against Turkish persons and entities are increasing. AKP admits that the conclusion of the trial could do serious damage to Turkey’s economic interests. Pressure from Germany ...
Short-term concern about EU Commission audit may be out of the way
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Nov 2017
In our November report, we wrote that the payment of about EUR 1.1bn of due reimbursement by the EU Commission to Hungary before end-2017 seemed to be at risk, due to an ongoing audit by the Commission at the Prime Minister's Office in Hungary, the administrative unit responsible for the distribu...
Beijing Sees New Problems
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Nov 2017
We just conducted a week of interviews in Beijing and nearby Jinan, Capital of Shandong Province. A few thoughts on these subjects: * Inflation * Consumer Debt * Growing Receivables * New Private Banks * Rising Power of Reformer Wang Yang * The Mantra of Private Public Partnerships
Opening Finance – the Right Way
CHINA · Report · 24 Nov 2017
Growth was relatively stable in October. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, almost the same as in previous months. Yet key growth drivers weakened. Fixed asset investment was up 5.8% y/y, slightly above the nadir, but lower than the investment price level. So real investment growth is still negat...