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You can read me later
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2018

We are fully aware that this Brief won’t make the top item on your weekend reading list, but since we will not release a weekly report this Sunday (because of elections), we thought we should quickly touch upon some of the developments and data releases of the past week – for the record. May b...

Maduro's "new beginning"
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Diosdado Cabello was elected by consensus, without contenders, as president of the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) replacing Delcy Rodríguez after having been in the shadows since 2015. This is a step in chavismo’s reengineering that Maduro dubs as the "new beginning". The decision reflects a...

A weakening of South Africa’s terms of trade results in a significant deterioration of the current account in the first quarter of 2018
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Jun 2018

There was a marked widening of the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments, from 2.9% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 4.8% of GDP in the first quarter of 2018. This was largely due to the deterioration of the trade account during the period; South Africa’s trade balance ...

​Final Words: Polls and undertows
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2018 · 1 response

It is time to express my personal thoughts on 24 June election results, and the landscape in their aftermath. Gods willing, I shall start posting comments on this website starting 10-11 pm on Sunday night, to be followed by a brief early Monday.There will be no Weekly Report this week. While thes...

Another rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jun 2018

Amidst tumbling financial markets, the Monetary Board (MB) decided today to raise its set of policy rates by 25bp, its second after last month's increase. The key overnight reverse repurchase rate now stands at 3.5%. 

The BSP said that while its latest baseline inflation forecasts have shifted l...

The IMF is unhappy
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Jun 2018

Yesterday the IMF finally made a statement on recent developments around the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC). Christine Lagarde outlined four points to be completed for the fourth review of the program: approval of the supplementary law to formally establish the HACC;amendments to the law on HA...

The MNB today: an eventful day in Budapest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2018

Well, this kind of a monetary policy event cannot be seen very often. Expecting that today's Monetary Council will not bring about any significant development in terms of tightening, the forint weakened further this morning, to EURHUF 324-325, just a bit down from yesterday. And then came the Cou...

​More cabinet changes and FX policies
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 18 Jun 2018

This week will be an interesting thermometer to follow the market mood on Argentina. Even more so with tomorrow´s LEBAC auction, ahead of Wednesday’s formal approval of the stand-by agreement by the board of Directors of the IMF. As part of broader economic adjustments, aligned with the IMFstand-...

Paula and the cowboys
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Duque won Colombia’s presidency with 10.4 million votes (54% of total valid votes), while Petro obtained 8 million votes, equivalent to 41.8% (See Table 1). Figures 1 and 2 show the regional distribution indicating that some key provinces of central Colombia were responsible for these results. Du...

A bit of a problem with inflation
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Those analysts who believed a few weeks ago that Fidesz was unlikely to use its two-thirds parliamentary majority to carry out further constitutional reforms appear to have been clearly wrong. In fact, a draft act to further restrict the operation of non-government organizations, and a constituti...

Change in the international scenario and increased risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2018

The international scenario has changed. The current cycle is marked by appreciation of the dollar and reduced flow of capital to emerging countries, which to a greater or lesser degree has weakened their currencies and raised the quotations of their CDS. The countries with balance of payments iss...

IMF view of new high court anti-corruption law still a mystery
UKRAINE · Report · 18 Jun 2018

The bill on the high anti-corruption court (HACC) has finally passed in the Verkhovna Rada. President Petro Poroshenko promptly signed it into law, and it took effect on June 14th. Nominally, Ukraine’s government has fulfilled the IMF requirement, but, predictably, the law was not quite the one t...

Last month of legislative activity before the mid-year recess and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2018 · 1 response

The Central Bank, pressured by the external scenario, will offer approximately US$10 billion in swap contracts to increase liquidity in the foreign exchange market. On Wednesday, the central bank will announce the benchmark interest rate. Finance Minister Eduardo Guardia meets with investors in N...

Carrasquilla to lead Duque’s transition team
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Alberto Carrasquilla, former Minister of Finance under president Uribe and the most mentioned name for taking that same post again during the next administration, has been designated general leader of the two-month transition, until August 7th, by president-elect Iván Duque.On the government’s si...

Economics: Fuzzy economics of the final debate
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jun 2018

The third and final presidential candidates’ debate was planned around three broad policy areas, the first being economic growth, poverty and inequality. But, unfortunately, the contenders preferred to spend most of their time attacking one another, and when they did get around to economic policy...

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