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Stockholm arbitration clarifies on its decision: both Naftogaz and Gazprom call victory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2017

On Dec 22 Naftogaz published a release describing details on decision of the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce on lawsuit of Russian Gazprom against Naftogaz. According to the release Stockholm Arbitration: recognized $352 per tcm gas price for Ukraine in 2Q 2014 instead ...

Holding our breath at least until January
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Dec 2017

We see two scenarios for 2018. In one, Nicolás Maduro consolidates his position as head of a radicalized authoritarian regime and remains in power through a sham election early in the year, at great economic and human cost. In the other, social and economic hardship at home and pressure from abro...

Dark, like oil
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017 · 1 response

The outlook for the Venezuelan economy in 2018 is dire. Deep depression and hyperinflation augur hard times. Policy reforms are unlikely and foreign funding will not lift Venezuela out of its problems, for now.

From rabbits, back to elephants
TURKEY · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017

The year will close with a stellar growth rate, at around 6.5% we now estimate, thanks to massive stimulus measures and to a lesser extent growth in net exports. But macro imbalances have worsened as well, with inflation likely to end the year at around 11.5%, up from 8.5% at end-2016, and the cu...

COSTA RICA: Dynamism is waning
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2017

Costa Rica’s economic activity continues decelerating, more or less in line with our 2017 forecast, despite official optimism about expected real GDP growth. The slowdown is quite generalized across sectors. We reiterate the influence of both external and domestic factors. Rising interest rates i...

Polls, non-performing loans and downgrades
COLOMBIA · Report · 20 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Polls on the presidential race are still in an early stage of their Evolution. Apparently, the supply of and demand for votes are not matching quite yet in the political market. From our point of view, voters older than 35 and clientele voters will beat young urban and left-leaning voters. The wi...

Most do not believe Temer will run for re-election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Dec 2017

President Michel Temer will not run for re-election, according to the belief of 83% of the 209 congressional representatives polled by Arko Advice on December 5-7. Representatives from 24 political parties in the Lower House of Representatives were polled. Even within the President’s party, the P...

This Thursday will seal Kuczynski's fate
PERU · In Brief · 19 Dec 2017

Congress will receive President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski on Thursday 21st to listen his defense on the serious allegations that led to the approval of a vacancy motion on grounds of moral incapacity. Kuczynski is accused of lying about consulting work done for the Brazilian construction firm Odebrec...

What is the outlook for growth after the cyclical recovery?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Dec 2017

Brazil is emerging from a long and deep recession, and for some time the monetary stimulus from low real interest rates will produce growth of actual GDP greater than potential growth. But what will happen afterwards? In this report we quantify the contributions of the sources of potential GDP gr...

A Failure of Readership
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Dec 2017

Since 1958, the only right of center politician to win an election was Sebastian Piñera. Now he has done it again. Despite a poorer than expected showing in the first round, Piñera triumphed in last Sunday’s runoff, surprising everyone, including, it seems, himself. Piñera won in almost every reg...

Accelerating Growth, Weakening Trade Balance
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2017

Q3 GDP was revised higher by an unusually large amount in the second estimate, to 4.1% yoy from a preliminary 3.8%. This was followed by robust industrial and construction output numbers, and by this year’s so far strongest retail sales figure, for October. Based on all this data, we now see full...

Week of December 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2017

This is the final week of legislative activity this year. According to the Constitution, Congress enters its year-end recess on December 23. The Lower House tries to approve urgency for the bills on payroll tax exemptions and regulation of lobbying. On Monday, the Superior Electoral Court analyze...

Economics: Cost to Mexico of US Fiscal Reform
MEXICO · Report · 18 Dec 2017

According to a tentative analysis of differing reports on the compromise tax bill Republican leaders in the US House of Representatives and Senate approved Friday, the US fiscal reform will have a considerable adverse impact on countries that do business with the United States, and that effect co...

Politics: Three coalitions, three candidates
MEXICO · Report · 18 Dec 2017

Our prediction following the 2015 midterms that multiparty alliances would assume a greater role in politics has been borne out, as all nine registered parties have coalesced into three rival coalitions whose choice of 2018 presidential candidate is only a formality at this point. Two of thos...

Paradoxes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Dec 2017

For Brazil to grow sustainably, many reforms are necessary, not only to assure a solid fiscal adjustment – as is the case of the pension reform – but also to stimulate investments and boost labor productivity. The task is daunting and will take years. The current government has taken some importa...

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