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Support for the government in the Lower House drops in October
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2017

Average support for the Michel Temer administration in the Lower House in October dropped compared to the month of September, declining from 54.56% to 47.67%. However, support in September was inflated by the votes on Political Reform. When we exclude the Political Reform votes from analysis (sev...

Cabinet re-shuffle good for Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

Bruno Araújo’s resignation from the Ministry of Cities was expected. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s recommendation that the party break with the government strengthened the group that advocated the exit. Members of the PSDB who remain in cabinet ministries – Aloysio Nunes, Foreign R...

Week of November 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

There will be no important votes in the Senate or activity in the Lower House due to the Wednesday holiday. Pension Reform negotiations continue. According to Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, a new text will be presented by the end of the week. On Tuesday, November 14, the deadline to join th...

Economics: Positive Impact for Social Programs
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2017 · 1 response

During the previous presidential administration Mexico almost tripled the number of social programs, which climbed to 278 by 2012. Since that time, greater coordination and other factors allowed for fewer programs (down to 149 in 2017) at the same time as austerity has led to a reduction of funds...

Politics: Public Prosecutors. The Weakest Link?
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2017

The extent to which the public has expressed growing concern over worsening corruption and security indicators leads us to expect those two issues to dominate the upcoming presidential contest. As always, the economy will also be a major point of debate, but with GDP at acceptable levels it may n...

A more powerful albeit disappointing Moreno
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Nov 2017 · 1 response

The government submitted for the Legislature’s approval the budget for 2018 together with a new “reform package” that Moreno justified as necessary “to keep schools and hospitals open on the fault of the economic mismanagement of my predecessor”. The tax and trade duties reform contained in th...

Inflation: Headed to the Target with Expectations Anchored
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

The 12-month IPCA in October grew for the second straight month, but still remains under the lower limit of the target interval. However, not only does the yield curve have a large positive slope, the slope has risen in the past few weeks. We insist that this behavior is not the consequence of an...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2017

We continue to rate political risk perception for Turkey as high, with the possibility of a further downside. PM Yildirim’s Summit with VP Pence in the U.S. failed to deliver any momentum to the troubled relationship. The upcoming trial of Turkish citizens accused of circumventing sanctions on Ir...

Fitch Ratings improves outlook to positive on their sovereign BBB-
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2017

Fitch Ratings joined S&P's recent decision to improve the outlook to Positive from Stable on their BBB- sovereign long-term debt rating maintained for Hungary on November 10, the last revision date for a major rating agency this year. Just as a reminder, Moody's similar rating remains at Baa3/Sta...

Losing sheen
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 10 Nov 2017

Economic outlooks appear to have turned less rosy these days.All eyes are on the tax reform package in congress and the question in many people’s minds is how the economic team will decide potentially hard policy choices should congress pass a tax bill that yields inadequate revenues. This, toget...

Disregard the Downgrade
CHINA · Report · 10 Nov 2017

Q3 growth was stable, though slightly lower. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, down 0.1 pps from Q2, while industrial output was up 6.3% y/y, down 0.5 pps. But industrial output in real terms might be worse than official statistics show. Fixed asset investment has been weakening, and was up 5.8% y/y in Q3. Af...

Parliament approves new privatization law in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Nov 2017

Parliament approved new privatization law in first reading. The key features of the law include (a) introduction of independent investment advisors that accompany sale of large state owned enterprises, (b) sale of small stakes of state property through Internet platform, (c) streamlined procedure...

At last, (relatively) good inflation data came out for October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2017

CPI-inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.2% yoy in October, the latter down from 2.5% in the previous month. Core inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.7% yoy, the latter also down from 2.9% in September. Non-fuel inflation reached 0.3% mom and an unchanged 2.4% yoy, whereas all three of the MNB's adjusted core inflati...

Economic Recovery: Steady As She Goes
UKRAINE · Forecast · 08 Nov 2017

Ukraine’s economy is steadily recovering now. During H1, GDP grew 2.4% y/y, twice as fast as forecast. Local investments grew 22.2% y/y, and private consumption grew 4.7%, driving growth, despite the continuing decline in industrial output, and contraction in farm production. We expect a 2% y/y G...

This year’s sixth wage hike
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Nov 2017

The sixth salary adjustment of 2017 came into effect on November 1, 2017. The so-called integral minimum wage, which the government now calls "the wage that protects the people” rises by 40 percent over the level set just two months ago with a 30 percent increase in the base salary and a 48 perce...

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