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S&P upgraded Hungary to BBB-/Stable: Surprise, surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Sep 2016

Well, so much about predicting rating agencies. This morning we sent out our September monthly, in which we expected no upgrade at all today, though attributing a 30% probability to a potential change in S&P's outlook on its previous BB+/Stable to positive. Yet the agency changed its LT/FX sovere...

Time to Vote Again on October 2
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Sep 2016

The sharp recovery of GDP in Q2 stemmed mainly from a pick-up of net exports, due to a bounce-back in manufacturing and to decelerating import growth as fixed investment fell. On the whole, domestic adsorption decreased on qoq basis. Consumption growth continued to be robust, but it showed no par...

BOI unlikely to shift out of neutral mode despite low inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2016

Following several months of gradually increasing inflation from -0.9% y-o-y in April to -0.6% in July, August witnessed a reversal to -0.7% y-o-y. The main reason was a moderation in housing prices to 1.9% y-o-y to 2.2% y-o-y. The CPI excluding all energy items turned negative to -0.1% y-o-y from...

Chinese Debt Management
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Sep 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: * There is a temptation for policy advisors to propose specific solution to problems only after they have been abstracted from their systemic contexts. In an economy with deep imbalances and strong institutional constraints, however, this can easily bac...

Conflict en route to the 20 percent
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Sep 2016 · 1 response

The September 1 demonstrations moved Venezuelan politics from an unstable equilibrium to open confrontation. They confirmed massive popular support for a regime change through elections, and strengthened the MUD and the moderate opposition. The government responded by escalating conflict and hara...

The Lava Jato investigation hits Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2016

The Curitiba-based corruption investigation just dealt a big blow to the political future of Lula and the Workers’ Party (PT). The Lava Jato investigation has formally accused the former president, former first lady Marisa Letícia, the president of the Lula Institute, Paulo Okamotto, businessman ...

Fuzzy Economic and Political Panorama
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Sep 2016 · 1 response

President Correa and the government are making all efforts to achieve in three months what they neglected to pursue in the past 10 years. The trade preferences with the European Union end in December and will cost the export sector $400 million. Correa is offering to compensate exporters for thes...

Politics: Peña's Options for Defusing the Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2016

The clearest political ramification to date of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s grave miscalculations hosting U.S. Presidential nominee Donald Trump has been a further yawning of the political void separating the Mexican people from the president and his government. With the president’s disapprova...

Economics: Fiscal and Budget Debates Collide
MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2016

The presentation of the government’s budget proposals last Thursday prompted a response from business groups looking to propose a “fiscal counter reform” aimed at rolling back some aspects of the major overhaul of tax rules Congress passed in the fall of 2013, better known as the 2014 fiscal refo...

CA surplus declines, offset by robust FDI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2016

The CA surplus in Q216 slowed to 2.7bn USD following 2.9bn in Q116. This was the result of a higher trade deficit of 2.0bn compared to 1.5bn last quarter as merchandise imports ( in part due to higher energy prices) increased by 4.6% and exports only by 1.5% . The service account surplus remained...

Infrastructure: The Government’s Investment Partnerships Program (PPI)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2016

The Council of the Investment Partnerships Program (PPI-Council) met at the Planalto Palace to discuss ten basic changes to infrastructure concession programs. Among the main changes, long-term financing for infrastructure works will be contracted as the concession begins. There will be no interm...

Inflation: Temporary Relief
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2016

Slower inflation in August and September reflects weaker demand and a slight relief on the supply side. In our view, this moderate slowdown won’t last for long. Falling real income has led sellers to mitigate price increases in order to protect sales and cash flow. The government has helped sl...

New Faces from Within
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2016

Head of the Presidential Administration and long-term Putin’s trusted friend Sergei Ivanov stepped down to be replaced by his former deputy Anton Vaino, who is younger and is not a Putin’s friend. That continues the overall trend of Putin gradually replacing his old trusted friends in key governm...

Current Account Deficit Eases in Q2 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Sep 2016

Just as the market expected, the deficit on the current account narrowed in the second quarter of 2016. Expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit on the current account eased to 3.1% in Q2 2016, from an upwardly adjusted 5.3% (previously 5%) in Q1 2016.

Exports stabilizing at a low level but trade deficit up on import growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2016

In June-August, industrial exports increased 3.6% SAAR (trend data) following a contraction of 8.5% the previous three months. Imports of raw materials increased 5.3% following an increase of 5.6% the previous there months. Imports of consumer goods are down 10.9% (due to a sharp decline in new v...

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