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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Crisis, Increased Risk and Official Reactions
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Aug 2015

In recent weeks, Brazil’s CDS quotations have risen steeply. This movement has been prompted not only be the loosening of fiscal policy, reflected in the new primary surplus targets, which has raised the likelihood the country will lose its investment grade rating, but also by the worsening polit...

Global Opposition with no Opposition at Home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2015

Hosting a BRICS summit and a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Operation allowed Russia to present both organizations as an alternative to the Western-led international institutions. Although other summit participants were reluctant to support Russia’s anti-Western rhetoric, the meetings demonst...

External Headwinds
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 07 Aug 2015

External risks have increased since our last report.Our outlook, which sees GDP growth at 6.1% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016, is one of guarded optimism that considers robust domestic demand growth alongside softer export demand, increasing foreign investor caution, more volatile global financial mark...

On Reelections, Rabbits and Ratings
TURKEY · Report · 06 Aug 2015

Markets seem focused on three issues/questions at the moment: What is the latest on the coalition vs. reelection odds, given the cacophony of announcements coming out of Ankara? What should we exactly make out of the CBRT Governor Basci’s latest announcement of simplifying the monetar...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2015

Sources from the judicial sector claim that, in the coming weeks, the General Prosecutor of the Republic (PGR) will accuse the president of the House, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) in the Federal Supreme Court (STF), on the basis of involvement in acts of corruption discovered in the Lava Jato Operation.

Poverty Rises as Economy Slows
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2015

The news isn’t all bad: Consumer confidence has rebounded, the stores are reporting increased sales, and industry continues to hire. But the economy continues to slow, recent indicators show. And on balance, the latest news has been negative. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) showed activity slippi...

The arrest of José Dirceu and its consequences
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2015

The arrest of José Dirceu in the Lava Jato Operation will increase pressure on the PT even further.Especially taking in consideration that the incident occurred at the same time as Renato Duque, former Petrobras director, is negotiating a plea bargain deal. The combination of these two facts m...

Two Milestones Reached
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Aug 2015

Last week Venezuela cashed-in $6.5 billion: $1.5 billion from the sale of accounts receivable from Jamaica and $5.0 billion from China. The sale of accounts receivable from Jamaica ($3.2 billion face value) took place last Tuesday 08/28 and brought in $1.5 billion (54% discount). Pdvsa sold $1.2 ...

Week of August 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2015

Expectations with the return of Congressional activity.President Dilma Rousseff meets with party leaders of the governing coalition this Monday (3) to improve the climate between the Executive and Legislative.She will appear in the PT’s radio and TV program on Thursday.Leaders have until August 6...

Sharp Deceleration of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2015

One of the (many) reasons the current recession will be longer than the one in 2008-2009 is the behavior of credit. Growth of the credit stock started to slow in early 2011, and has been stagnant in 2015, with lending by both private and public banks decelerating. The flow of new loans to both bu...

The Monetary Policy Dilemmas
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2015

Last week the COPOM ended the tightening cycle with one more hike of 50 basis points, taking the SELIC rate to 14.25%, where according to the communiqué it will remain “for a sufficiently prolonged period.” But how long might that be? On the one hand, the Central Bank wants to bring inflation dow...

Inflation Eases, But Best Is Likely Over
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2015

Consumer price inflation moved little in July (0.1%), m/m, broadly in line with the consensus. This led to another easing in the 12-month rate to 6.8%, from 7.2% in June. Food price inflation stayed broadly unchanged at some 9.3%, y/y, while underlying inflation dynamics finally showed some moder...

Desperate For A Coalition
TURKEY · Forecast · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary With coalition talks proceeding very slowly, the ISIS/PKK threats on the rise and emerging markets under pressure, macro visibility has never been this poor. Our political baseline is reelections now (60% probability), even though the political landscape is unlikely to change mu...

Perpetual Election Mode
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary We’re all focused on the December 6 National Assembly elections, but voters will also choose governors in 2016, mayors in 2017, and a president in 2018. And there just might be a presidential recall referendum after April of next year. This means that the government will rema...

A Heavy Burden
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary In Argentina nobody discusses the need for a correction in economic policy. The debate is only about the scale and the speed of the required adjustments. The old debate concerning “gradualism versus shock” has returned with the intensity it had in the literature of stabilization...

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