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Mexico's Political Perspectives
MEXICO · Presentation · 01 Jun 2017

The gasoline price hike and issues of corruption have tanked presidential approval. Structural reforms are being questioned, and institutions have low credibility, posing risks for Mexico’s governance. Electoral alliances and a coalition government are the true option for the next government.

Mexico's Economic Risk Map 2017
MEXICO · Presentation · 01 Jun 2017

Many risks materialized against Mexico at the start of 2017, including low economic activity, rising inflation, US protectionism, fiscal weakness and political uncertainty. Most of them are vanishing, although NAFTA negotiations and the political environment are still uncertain.

Lawyers, Liars and Murderers
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Jun 2017

New numbers related to the demand side of growth surprised almost everyone, due to the unexpected depth of the slowdown. Remember that aggregate demand grew only 1.1% during Q1, below already-low expectations of around 1.5%-1.7%. Too, poor investment performance is greatly influenced by investmen...

Economic Data and Outlook Tend to Brighten; Political Parties Must See a Potential Coalition Path to Victory
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2017

Last month produced evidence of a further extension of the trend toward increased payroll employment that has been apparent in recent years: hiring accelerated anew in the past four months at the same time as we have seen a drop in the rates of joblessness, underemployment and informality. But t...

Tax reform bill goes to the Senate
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jun 2017

246 out of 256 congressmen who voted approved the Duterte administration’s proposed Package 1 of tax reform measures yesterday, two days after the President certified the measure as urgent.House Bill No. 5636 or the “Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Act” will now be transmitted to the Se...

Head of Naftogaz Kobolev Reports Ukraine’s Big Win against Gazprom
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 May 2017

Head of Naftogaz Andriy Kobolev reported positive decision of the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce on lawsuit of Russian Gazprom against Naftogaz. In particular, the arbiters rejected take-or-pay rule that Gazprom was insisting on. Also the court cancelled ban on re-expo...

Growth is Robust, But a Pension System Deficit Looms
PANAMA · Report · 31 May 2017

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity grew 7.5% y/y in March, and 6% in Q1. March IMAE growth was its highest since December 2014. There were three main drivers of Q1 growth: transportation, due to an increase in Canal and ports activity; commerce, due to the recovery of Colon Free Zone reexport...

Politics Overshadows Ho-Hum Economic Performance
CHILE · Report · 31 May 2017

The Central Bank has for the second month in a row cut its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, to 2.5%. Surprisingly, the board’s communiqué was 100% neutral. Clearly the current cycle of MPR reductions has ended, and a long pause lies ahead. GDP in Q1 recorded its lowest y/y growth rate since ...

Investment Grade from S&P
INDONESIA · Report · 30 May 2017

The long awaited ratings upgrade from S&P for Indonesia was finally announced on May 19, 2017. The Indonesian stock market was cheered by the announcement and pushed the index to a greater than 3% spike during the intraday session, gaining 2.59% that day to reach 5,791.9. This announcement was ma...

Fixed investment up 34% yoy (!) in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 May 2017

This morning's fixed investment data gave good explanation on what exactly drove up Q1 GDP growth to 4.1% yoy unadjusted / 3.7% yoy, sda. It was (now) evidently fixed investment growth, which in itself explained 3-3.5% yoy growth in Q1 (unadjusted) GDP, leaving really little for anything else on ...

Week of May 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2017

The political crisis continues to develop in Brasilia.But the Lower House and the Senate have a full voting agenda.Federal representatives may vote the bill on fiscal incentives.In the Senate, the governing coalition tries to advance Labor Reform and vote on Provisional Measures.In the economy, w...

COSTA RICA: Currency Issues Hit the Headlines
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 May 2017 · 3 responses

Currency issues have burst into the Costa Rican headlines. After more than two years of a relatively stable managed exchange rate, the Central Bank in recent weeks implicitly changed its intervention rule, allowing for greater volatility. In just the first 23 days of May, the wholesale exchange r...

The Political Crisis and the Economic Scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2017

The merely mild reaction of asset prices to a political crisis as severe as the present one is a puzzle. Of course, market agents are understandably hesitant to bet against a competent economic team that has instruments to intervene in the markets. But in the middle of last week, without any acti...

Little support for Maduro’s power grab
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 May 2017 · 1 response

The government has set the date for National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections for July. “Elections” is a generous term: under Maduro’s transparent plan to consolidate power, his government would essentially hand pick the constitutional delegates through obscure “social sector” quotas and ad h...

Political Crisis and Asset Prices
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2017

From looking only at the reflections of past crises on asset prices, it was tempting to predict that the current political crisis – which has seriously eroded the governability of President Temer – would trigger much stronger oscillations in asset prices than have occurred. We believe the relativ...

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